Heisy

This wave has huge importance to this storm (don't hate my photo editing skills). The 6z eps/euro/control actually pushed the main wave farther west towards four corners, but this second shortwave drops down and helps ignite everything. The control is an example of what could go wrong with a late phase. It still is a decent run verbatim.

@psuhoffmanmentioned it last night. Storm analog could be Feb3-4 1995. PNA driven storm. Storm that probably started my love of snow. Woke up as a scared 9 year old to thundersnow at around 5 or 6 am in Philly. Snow map looks very similar to 6z gfs output

This is top 5 weenie run of all time

Wow good find, h5 looks very similar.

Cmc actually might bring low close or over Boston this run, tough to tell exact position with these maps

Yea exactly. I just use it as guesstimate during the off runs of what the OP "may" have shown if it went beyond 90 hours. I also use it as a trending tool. I obviously do not put much weight with it. Still, as a whole we got a nice trend towards what we want to see at 18z (gefs, eps)

Control usually follows closely to what the OP was going to show....it is a good model to use as a trending tool. Was first to pick up the Buffalo event before the OP. This would have crushed SNE

Cmc is about best case scenario with a system like this without blocking. Ukie still wide right but made improvements. I think every Miller B in history the ukie was wide right at this range hah. The gfs made improvements if you ignore the final solution it was actually more similar to yesterday's 18z run vs any other run. Wouldn't have taken much change to start forming a low near the Se coast.

When we get precip maps this probably is a 3 to 4 ft run for someone

This is about as close as it gets without being a direct hit. Still, just more support for event.

Hello there

Cmc joining the party? I love these black and white maps

I hate being teased like this. While the was probably top 5 weenie runs of all time, just a small change and it was probably going to be a progressive out to sea wave. Still, this will fill my weenie cup for 6 hours that's for sure

At this range just happy to see a large scale event some where in range on the Icon.

The 12z icon had the same exact wave at the end of its run too....

I've been on over ten chases since 2013. I decided to take the girl on a chase this year. We left last Sunday to head to Erie or near there. Had booked a few places depending on last second model shifts (from experience). Except my "experience" really paid off when we left at 10am and gave up near New Kensington Pitt at around 8pm. I accidentally took the turnpike instead of going N from Philly and then west to avoid the storm. Drove through some of the heaviest snow of my life. At least the place we made it to got like 8 inches or so and we drove through blizzard conditions at Somerset PA on way home from upslope LES. Regardless, it was still fun and worth it for that bonding time haha.

So, something interesting of note on the 18z euro. Yea it only goes out to 90 hours and this probably means very little at this range, but there's a significant change that could impact things down the line. If you follow the 12z gfs through its run the stj energy that ends up phasing with the northern stream enters the CONUS around 90 hours out. The 12z gfs dug this energy pretty far SW which then gave more room for the northern stream to catch up to it. 18z gfs didn't dig it as far and it sped up the wave, thus the missed phase etc etc... Well, check out the differences on the 18z euro in Southwest Canada. The new 18z euro has a much better trajectory to send a wave into the southwest...im extremely bored and desperate, but here goes...

Keep the faith.

Yeah the 12z run had that stj energy farther southwest initially which allowed the northern stream to phase. Wouldn't have taken much change this run, still like the time period for potential.

Even though there was no event this run it was closer than people realize. It didn't dig the shortwave as far into the southwest this run so the spacing was off. Looooooooong way to go

This is also the same wave the gfs ended up turning into the monster. (The one near four corners)

Not sure if anyone posted or cares about it, but ukie at the end of the run looked interesting as well. Cold front pushing east and nice looking wave out west

Really like the 27th-29th for a potential Archambault event with +PNA index falling near this time period. Way too far out to get too excited, but there is definitely a signal across the guidance for some kind of east coast event during this time frame.

Whoever said there isn't SS energy involved is wrong FYI, can clearly see both streams here. Yea it ends up mostly NS, but the older more amped runs involved more phasing of the two streams

Lol at some of the lows in PA, atmospheric memory? FYI stormvistas snow algorithm is incorrect on ensembles for some reason. Im not sure what it does wrong but it always seems way different than other sites. It's why I didn't reup my subscription there