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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    ?
  2. Heisy
    I’ll make last second call Tom around 9-10 but I found a motel in Pottsville, thoughts
  3. Heisy
    It’s occluding by that point
  4. Heisy
    18z ggem Yeah, that’s 100mm snow gradient west burbs of Philly. 4 feet? Lol overdone but highlights the ccbs potential
  5. Heisy
    20 years of following the eta and NAM model. Run after run during big snowstorms. I’m not saying nyc region isn’t doing awesome in this storm at all, what it did for pa and nw sections is a joke that’s all
  6. Heisy
    It’ll be completely different in 6 hours
  7. Heisy
    Wouldn’t trust the NAM until tomorrow. It’ll look all goofy and then a random 6z run it gets its act together. Happens all the time with this pos. All I do is use it literally as the storm is happening to get last second adjustments. Even then it sucks. The last December storm I chased I changed motel reservations because THE 12z NAM literally 3 hours before the first flakes shifted south and the max ended up going N of me.. I’d literally bet a cool g to anyone on this
  8. Heisy
    They only tend to verify inside the ccb, as we saw in December with 40 at bgm
  9. Heisy
    Yea that’s other option forgot to mention. I like west more than N
  10. Heisy
    Probably will decide tomorrow afternoon after 18z gfs but probably headed to Berks or poconos, unsure yet though
  11. Heisy
    How’s snow growth looking in the ccb? Any good skews?
  12. Heisy
    Ukie well north of last night
  13. Heisy
    I’m starting to feel like someone out near York, Cumberland and n/e of there see 3 feet
  14. Heisy
    Meh. I’ll take it over the NAM but wouldn’t trust it until tomorrow. Just like that it was south
  15. Heisy
    I’ll take the Rgem, anything that shows south is a positive guys trust me.
  16. Heisy
    Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol
  17. Heisy
    Yeah it would be nice, however check out DTs latest video. He showed the snow it had forecasted for southeast earlier this week. In less than 3 runs it completely shifted from like nothing to a hit 1-2 days out. That model has burned me big time when chasing storms. I told myself after I didn’t go up to bgm that I will never not trust the EPS near game time, ever again. that being said, please come south NAM
  18. Heisy
    The first weenie ledge of my life. Was the first year I learned how to look at the models (AVN, EURO once a day, NGM, ETA etc) euro and eta backed off and sent it north but AVN kept hanging on. Since AVN out performed the ETA in the dec 30 2000 storm and the earlier December southeast event Mets hanged onto it to their doom.
  19. Heisy
  20. Heisy
    In my view 6z eps has less expansive precip than 00z up near pa N border and just increased inside the ccb
  21. Heisy
    Honestly never lol. Probably the model runs Monday 6z. I’ve storm chased enough storms to know there is never consensus until the storm is on top of us
  22. Heisy
    This setup is also slightly abnormal. Precip will explode over the region instead of developing farther south and expanding north. You can see that with the dry slot Over DE. If it forms too far N like NAM city is fooked for 12”, would be more like 4-8 From waa snows
  23. Heisy
    Yeah def some opportunity
  24. Heisy
    Eh, if you push that strong of a ccb band that far north there will be subsidence on the south side. I’m not complaining about the run verbatim, it just gets scary if you factor normal nw trend ticks we usually see
  25. Heisy
    It pushes the ccb north though, still at a range where could see it keep ticking N
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