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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    6z euro def touch slower .
  2. Heisy
    I always see the control as a low resolution extension of the Euro. Don’t take it serious but it can give you an idea of where the OP might have tracked. 18z model runs have me pretty excited for 00z for maybe first time all year. This is still a thread the needle for sure, so tempering those expectations, but something to look forward to tonight. I’m a Philly eagles fan too, super bowl and a snowstorm? Please! Yes and thank you .
  3. Heisy
    Here is 18z CMC is vs 12z. Yes there is a 18z cmc…. Can see it trended towards other models .
  4. Heisy
    Here is 18z euro vs gfs. Can see the differences here with the NE shortwave etc. make of it what you will .
  5. Heisy
    Euro 12z vs 18z. I actually like 18z a tick better. It’s farther west and better ridging in front. Also little bit more tilted negatively vs 12z All about spacing and latitude with this one. .
  6. Heisy
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  7. Heisy
    We def take vs seeing this run go farther S/weaker, that’s for sure. .
  8. Heisy
    Type of system you see in late March/Early April. Gotta be lucky and get under the best CCB band. Best shot up towards mountains and high elevations of VA right now I’d guess. There were some EPS members that had this type of solution. Snow fall output from this run does mimic eps placement to a degree, we also saw ukie bring it up the coast. .
  9. Heisy
    Kind of does a Ukie track. It’s all rain though, not that I’d care about thermals on a Nogaps hah. Where’s Ralph with the CRASS .
  10. Heisy
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  11. Heisy
    That’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow. .
  12. Heisy
    12z rgem trended towards nam/gfs at H5 .
  13. Heisy
    12z NAM looks good again at end of run. Means nothing, but we take .
  14. Heisy
    Here’s a better look at 6z eps .
  15. Heisy
    From a met on our Philly board, gfs sometimes thinks its 6 hour forecast guess is better than observations. Usually a good 24 hours to flush it out. Still there by 18z today then maybe we got something…. Fun tidbit, think we would have been NAMed at 6z lol, energy looks strong enough where it would have redeveloped fwiw. Nice uptick 6z eps, still not a ton of support, but step in right direction .
  16. Heisy
    Difference between GFS vs Euro same hour…. Can see wouldn’t take a whole lot for euro to look like GFS, but same goes for other way around .
  17. Heisy
    Ukie closes off the ULL well behind the lead front. Is well S though and only shows in the apps….still lends some credit towards a possible GFS solution. We would need to thread the needle here almost perfectly… Actually more favorable in S mid Atlantic on GEFS (remember factor in potential surface temps here) .
  18. Heisy
    CMC almost tries to pull same thing but ULL can’t get going and trough is a little too progressive. Icon has a gfs progression, but doesn’t have nearly enough juice with left over energy. Let’s get some support from ukie or euro tonight .
  19. Heisy
    SSW reaction puts us around mid March for affects. So probably see some blocking potentially show up around then. Also, for this next potential event I put it at like 1% happening. Need the perfect thread the needle with a bombing low getting cutoff from the flow because the airmass is such garbage. It will at least keep my interest during 00z There were maybe 3-4 eps members that had some snow for us. .
  20. Heisy
    This being said I’m not getting even a little bit excited unless we see 2-3 runs in a row and some other support. .
  21. Heisy
    I wouldn’t have expected every ensemble member to jump on this solution. There are def a few that have a similar progression though and I’d say the mean at least trended towards stretching the trough out and allowing a potential new low to form at base. Long shot but only thing worth tracking it seems for a while so… .
  22. Heisy
    I noticed the 12z Ukie did something similar but didn’t leave enough energy with ULL to create anything… 18z icon kind of had same progression as well… Temps are gonna be an issue regardless. Looks like instead of diving into the trough the NS races ahead and you get the shortwave kind of pinned underneath everything Definite thread the needle… .
  23. Heisy
    Ok, so this is just one run, but we’ve seen miniature hints of this across other models. This would be a “make your own cold air” type event. Energy closes off while front of wave escapes east. Man, Can we get lucky one time?! .
  24. Heisy
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  25. Heisy
    Uhhh….. major changes on 18z gfs. Looks like icon, stronger version of 12z euro .
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