Heisy

18z GEFS coming in a little improved as well for the time period I mentioned .

Not that anyone cares, but right now I’m thinking we have 7-9 days of hell to get through. Maybe the day 5-6 system tracks just right with NS and trailer vort for some front end or NW frozen, then we face the possible cutter around the 26/27th…However, it then finally looks like we could have an opportunity if EPS etc is right. Stealing this from my Philly forum, but the trend is our friend right now. Just another week of patience. If things hold by next weekend we could have something on the radar to track. .

GFS now the only model that’s phasing NS with southern ULL for the day 5-7 system so hard to trust its evolution beyond that. Icon was the only other model and it backed off at 18z

GFS still phasing the NS with the ULL for the day 5-7 system. Rest of guidance says the NS races ahead. Even 18z icon trended that way. So wouldn’t be shocked if GFS caves soon. Having the NS race ahead and keeping good spacing with southern vort could turn it into a hit for you guys especially just inland (like euro) GFS solution gives it no shot right now because of that full phase and no confluence out ahead .

Yes, there is likely a cutter around day 9, beyond that is when the pattern looked really good. .

Maybe the best EPS run in a long time for Jan 27+. Both prior events (24th, 27th) def have potential for you guys up N though .

Maybe one of the best EPS runs we’ve had over the last few weeks for the Jan 27+ period. It does seem like there will be a cutter day 9 but then the cold air is finally ushered in. -EPO, some Atlantic ridging, TPV sitting in a good spot, gotta get it under 7-9 days though .

No, I want a real one, decimate Chicago. Something to get some confluence near our region. Here is control (to show where that big day 9 cutter could lead us), finally pushing the confluence/cold air where we need it at least Here is EPS mean around same time, best shot looks right after that front day 10, which is what I was talking about… .

Honestly, I hope we get a big powerful cutter like the euro/cmc showing in LR. Could at least shake things up and possibly bring colder air SE temporarily .

So each model handling interaction between NS and the main shortwave differently. Euro misses phase, but keeps it far enough E to take advantage of some cold, gfs phased it, cmc misses phase but keeps shortwave well west. Icon has the best interaction obv .

Def a thread the needle event, but good trends towards it. Need the right timing of NS/SS interaction .

12z icon .

I would imagine a huge % of our snowstorms come from taking advantage of cold laid down by prior waves, of course that happens in better patterns though. GFS/euro big differences because of how they handle that day 6 system. Until that’s resolved hard to say how LR will evolve .

Man, would be real nice to have a block or some kind of 50/50 here for that wave near Texas. It takes a decent path but has no resistance as it rounds the corner. Maybe if that 22/23rd system blows up and gives us a transient 50/50 it could work. This is all assuming euro has a grasp on the evolution of the pattern. Regardless, still think there’s a signal for some kind of gradient event near 27-28, we’ll see…. .

This storm actually got me hooked at young age to snow. I lived right outside Philly. Woke up to thunder snow before dawn that scared the hell out of me. Was only 8 yrs old. It was snowing insanely heavy Verified it a couple years ago that willow grove pa reported thunder snow. I lived right near there at the time. This radar is around 6am, must have been when I was woken up .

Looks like 12z GEFS beefed up for the 27th .

There’s a bunch of hits on all 3 ensemble means for around 27th

Thought it would help but I guess not. Put the 18z gfs on animation on wxbell. It’s really insane how every shortwave goes over the ridge and has a tough time getting out of the southwest. It’s like there is a vacuum west of Mexico sucking every shortwave backwards .

Looks like tpv phasing S this run so could lead to better things on the OP down the line, “could” .

It was snowing lightly last night on my drive home from work, right around wood haven exit. A+ winter .

Yea that TPV piece I mentioned was too far west. Check out these differences though between GFS/Euro. Pretty substantial for day 5-6 .

GFS still looks nothing like euro day 5, that tpv lobe near lakes should keep this south enough, we’ll see .

All 3 major models handling the 20th wave and the one behind it completely different. Todays Canadian buried that follow up energy, and todays euro brings it east and keeps the ridge strong. Differences between euro and the other 2 couldn’t be farther apart in the LR. We all know which ever one ends up being the worst for us will win .

GFS OP advertising a PV split around 300 hours. Not sure if we’ll get a SSWE, but maybe our only hope this winter? Wouldn’t feel the effects until late feb/March I think anyway. I’ll let smarter people who understand that topic better talk about it. .

Euro not dumping that energy out there then leads to this headed forward… Hope it’s right… .