Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Went from having a crazy strong 50/50 yesterday to basically none. Got schooled by the GFS .
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We need cold to set in prior to a snowstorm most of the time. Our key here was getting some N Stream energy to rotate through NE & SE Canada to help build in HP/confluence. Aka a 50/50. This run you could tell was going to be really bad early on because the confluence is much farther N. It’s one OP run, but ugh…. .
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Not that good of a cold push this run, not looking good so far…gfs and cmc at least had some confluence, wouldn’t be shocked if this run brings the low to Chicago lol, hope I’m wrong as I usually am .
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Have to see what 00z does, but 18z eps/control caved towards 12z GFS/CMC with handling of day 5 wave and the tpv phase….could argue we might see the 00z euro come well N with long range system at 00z if that stays course .
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It really comes down to what happens with that Atlantic system day 5-6. Some models phase the TPV, others, like todays Canadian and GFS don’t. That’s going to create our 50/50. Here Is difference between 18z GFS and EURO. Focus on the Atlantic We’ll probably see this sorted out soon as it’s almost under 120 hours .
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Looks like 18z GFS gonna miss the tpv phase with the 11th wave…. However there is better confluence vs 12z and main wave isn’t as strong so maybe it still works out? We’ll see… Here are differences in Atlantic vs Euro and 18z GFS… still lots to sort out .
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So the Euro is phasing the TPV so it should in theory hold in cold air a lot better than cmc and gfs did, well see .
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It all comes down to what the prior event does, if the tpv phases with it we have a 50/50 and a snow chance, if it doesn’t it will cut. Period… no in between. One positive from 12z runs is the ukie was phasing tpv so maybe some hope for Euro .
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12z CMC will cut too, the tpv phase with the 11th wave was our 50/50, without it there’s nothing stopping it. Watch the Canadian go from Myrtle Beach to Chicago in one run .
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That ULL over SE Canada might be too much of a good thing, but we’ll see .
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Here she comes, we’ll see where/how strong our 11th 50/50 event forms .
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Huh? I was responding to others who seemed skittish about the OP run. I’d bet a large sum of $ it’s dead last in model verification though at day 5 beyond right now. 18z gfs did have the same wave, it split our 13/14th wave into S and N stream vorts btw. Regardless doesn’t matter going to be completely different in 5 hours .
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OP GFS has always been a bad model, but I feel like it has been absolutely atrocious this year. Anyone have the model validation chart? I wouldn’t worry even a little bit what this model shows beyond 120 hours. Keep looking at the GEFS. Yea they’ll follow the leader a little bit, but chess pieces still on the board at 18z Long way to go… .
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Yea, agreed. At this range we just wait and hope ensembles keep showing intrigue until like you said we get this around day 6. Verbatim the 50/50 this run is too strong, which is what folks down in the Carolina’s want, but not us…. Still, solid run the pieces are still on the table .
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Yea 50/50 actually overwhelms the shortwave, we want it a little farther NE. Delicate balance but at this range this is a perfectly good run. Just happy to continue seeing the same overall look .
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50/50 is actually probably too strong this run, no way this thing cuts .
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Here is our event…battle between main wave and our 50/50 .
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Paging Dr Hoffman Better everything this GEFS run, +PNA ridge, improved 5050, HP, SLP You can kind of see SLP redevelopment with some HP bleeding down CAD areas .
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Best chance all year N stream disturbance on 11th is our 50/50 which helps lock in whatever comes from the PAC .
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That 11th event from OP GFS likely a mirage imo. I could see it being a strong closed off N stream disturbance that swings through NE. Regardless it’s a very important piece to the puzzle since it will setup as our 50/50. 12z GEFS so far .
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Gfs diving phasing TPV piece down SE, this is good headed into the LR event could help form 50/50 for our hopeful event (one crashing into Cali in this image) .
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I think it’s the best shot all year, but we’re still so far out and a lot has to go right leading up to that wave….so we wait… .
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Wow, very similar to EPS, can’t ask for a ton more at this range for a coastal signal. I’m hoping the 11th wave turns into a solid 50/50 .
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18z GEFS a little better with our hopeful 13/14th shortwave .
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18z GFS is close to turning the 11th shortwave into an event. It changed the upper air pattern over SE Canada more favorable to lock in HP. It sure if the ULL will cut off or come up the coast though. .
