Heisy

Event at end of OP Euro is the one the ensembles have been hinting at for a few days now. Imo this is the best shot all year for a brief window for success. So many shortwaves crashing from the PAC prior my hope is that they lead to a transient 50/50 setup like the Euro has. Euro vs CMC at end of run .

Honestly I’m the type of snow fiend who would take that every year. 12z JMA yesterday had a big one forming at 192. Let’s goo, I’m feeling good about todays 12z runs ha .

Enjoy it for 12 hours .

00z euro has a weird evolution fantasy event near end of run to satisfy our hunger .

Cmc tried to spin something up end of run. Flow is ridiculously complicated. Multiple Shortwaves with all the pac energy crashing inland wave after wave. Absolutely brutal pattern for the models. Grasping at straws here. Tiring .

There’s been a wave showing up on the GEFS a few runs in a row now for the 12-14th. EPS has it too I suppose. 12z Canadian showed the wave in C US at end of run, but didn’t look too great. Only long range period worth watching right now imo .

As others have noted the only hope I see for any kind of event right now is the 13-14th wave. Ensembles sort of like it. This is nothing spectacular because the airmass is borderline and not many ensemble members have hits 12z Canadian has the wave in C US at end of run (though it doesn’t look that great). GFS buries it into the GOM. .

Even though EPS looks “good” in LR it still concerns me that the snow mean is so garbage. Basically tells me that even though the average height pattern Jan 15-16 is good, how we get there on each individual ensemble member almost always doesn’t result in snow. Wake me up when we start getting some darker blues in here .

Looks like we also took a little step back on the potential good looking pattern mid month. Ugh. Gotta hope we get lucky I guess .

End of euro run also almost pulls a 12z cmc. Thought it was going to trap and cut off this ULL, kind of slides east oddly .

Yea we actually saw it show follow up wave for first time with some separation. Hopefully we can continue that trend .

GFS really loves this event. Hard to trust this year but this is a beefy mean, there is one HECS on there that skews a bit. We’ll see .

18z GFS and ensemble really like next week event. Only guidance really giving it a chance though. Funny how 6z and 18z GEFS snowfall mean look completely different than 12z. 6z/18z give the event a chance by separating the shortwaves and allowing it to redevelop. A sign for 00z runs or a GFS mirage? Find out in 5 hours .

I made a comparison GIF of the 6z vs 12z vs 18z runs… the 6z and 18z runs give the event a chance by stretching out the trough and lagging some energy behind. Once again, need some other guidance to show this happening for it to be believable. That is a pretty damn juicy mean for this far out though. Maybe the best all year? .

Individuals, juiced up for some reason .

Here is a better look at 18z GEFS, definitely a ton of members redeveloping the low. Probably just another GFS mirage, but… .

18z GFS & GEFS more like 6z run. Something in the physics idk. Since really not much other guidance shows the trough going that positive and allowing a new low to form it’s hard to give this any credit…. .

One step forward, two steps backwards .

It’s able to build in HP because of some TPV energy that dives south, wave has some separation and HP build behind. It’s actually a different wave vs last nights 00z/6z runs that showed the coastal event. .

Posted it over on NE. Need that TPV energy in SE Canada to continue to dive SE and trend stronger. Keep the separation between that and main wave and we got a shot. Hopefully start of a trend. Here is 18z vs 12z note difference in SE Canada. 18z front clears and HP gets to build in. Little too late this run for city but close .

Back to back OP runs showing -EPO and PNA in LR, keep building on this that will def user in some cold air and hopefully trap it in SE Canada .

GFS kind of shows same TPV phase situation we were dealing with during the last cutter. 18z gfs gets the energy in SE Canada out ahead of shortwave which allows some cold air to filter vs 12z which phases them. If there was a little more separation here with more of TPV press we could get hit here near coast. Need some work though. GFS colder bias could be at work here too and I think better opportunities probably better beyond this anyway TLDR: as long as we get some TPV press in SE Canada we’ll have some opportunities with an active PAC . .

Yeah because the trough comes east as basically one shortwave. Need wave separation for a shot at something significant .

It did, but it’s back to running. Looks like due to the fast pac flow there’s a few short waves to keep an eye on. The lead wave heads towards lakes and kind of phases with TPV, then the question is do next set of shortwaves come east as one low or do we separation ala 6z GFS/12z cmc where front clears and then a third shortwave is given room to redevelop. If that second shortwave comes east as one low there won’t be cold air available. Need to kind of beat down the ridge and create confluence to have a shot here. .

12z cmc comes close to pulling a 6z GFS scenario. A little bit more energy in follow up wave and could have been a good run As is close enough where this may be a legit threat models picking up .