Heisy

Yea down SNJ towards shore could have snow growth issues. Hopefully we can hit 12:1 at times

Just reading HM sounds about right. We’ll probably get 10-13:1, but he has noted the increased LLJ strength, while increasing precip, could hurt ratios.

Sweet, and that’s just 10:1

Supposedly the EPS/control is getting an upgrade this week. stormvista advertising on the homepage fyi

Awaiting snow maps but that might have 6” just west of the city, tombo says it’s .5, so might be 4-7” with ratios?

I know people down south hate em for good reason, but I wouldn’t mind a legit ice storm. We never get them in Philly anymore. Unless it’s sleet, we’re really good at that.

Models are trending slower to shift the tpv out, as psu noted this years trend is your friend for next week:

For the cmc the black and white maps roll out around 11 thru day 6, and then stormvista starts rolling pretty quick after that

18z eps had less ridging vs 12z at 144 hours. We have a sprawling 1044hp to work with. Just need the confluence to trend better from the departing ULL

The ULL tpv didn’t phase with any stj energy. Before, models were bringing the tpv farther southeast with the weekend system. Now it kind of scoots more ENE. btw, 18z eps looked slightly better at 144 for next weeks system which I think is our best and last shot at a significant winter storm for a while. It’s technically the event I’ve been talking about for over a week. Ralph remembers me mentioning the heisy. Well I said it’d be the event when the AO breaks down and the tpv moves into 50/50 position, well...

Para is about 2" for the city

What looked like an extremely promising period for the city is turning to crud pretty fast. Going to be hard to get all frozen with these events down the line unless something changes fast. We never do "easy" well anyway. The event last week kind of came out of nowhere after a few busts fi you recall. Maybe thatll happen again lol

Look similar? obv no two every the same but just saying pattern both have that tpv in a similar location. There are differences though

Exactly, pretty sure that’s illegal. Especially at that amount? I bet he gave the money to someone else to make the bet but still...

Gotcha, thanks!

I may consider making my first chase up to Buffalo region for this one. I’ve considered it a few times this year but there’s been larger storms to chase all over NE. One big synoptic+Les snow event to chase and this winter would be epic for me!

Better angle for the precip shield for round 2 so far, well see

This is the period after the pesky ULL finally moves off towards 50/50 region. The issue is lack of a pna ridge so the the trough axis isn’t great. Looks messy at this range but far out so well see. Models differ on handling of the ULL

Yeah looking at individuals they’re all over the place. It’s a balancing act between favoring thurs vs fri and some even bring Friday N causing mixing issues.

Yep, for the OP; The arrow is our confluence and the zigzag is the ridging. 18z vs 12z for comparison. Notice the difference in the height lines as Bob noted. We need that ULL to be farther East

I mentioned this in AM but my bet is one of the waves trends weaker and the other stronger. Like I’ve been saying our best bet imo is Friday. Has a better jet structure and more H7 juice. 18z gfs is best case scenario right now. I hope euro shows something similar this evening. This is a really good setup for mid Atlantic, could be some sneaky high totals in S de and S NJ too with some weak coastal enhancement. Well see. Obviously most favorable spot is west of city. Give me 5” of powder and I’m happy

Models seem to be all disagreeing on the progression of the ULL and any undercutting energy. We’re going to see a lot of different scenarios in the medium range

Gotta get that ULL over the lakes farther south and east for the Day 6 event on the gfs or you’ll just blast the mid levels

You can see the enhanced interaction here post Thursday

Also here is the last frame. There is decent moisture and more NS interaction at the end here so there would have been more If run extended imo