Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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EPS ticked the other way though, a few members still show possibility, but this is a long shot either way .
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6z control gonna crush you guys with secondary CCB lol .
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Really interesting change on euro, eps, control, and even some GEFS members. Some hint at this potential on other models as well Looks like there is a chance ULL redevelops. A bunch of eps members have a secondary strip of heavy snow from this ranging from the mid Atlantic all the way up through NE depending on the track etc… .
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Anyone notice the euro last night? The OP, control, and EPS all of a sudden now redevelop the ULL. A bunch of members actually give us a snowstorm on the redeveloped storm! This would be a shocking development .
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Just think, this time next week the pattern change around 20-21st will only be 6 days away. .
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It’s all we have to look forward to right now tbh .
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Models really like flipping the switch around 20th…. We’ll find out if we get pump faked, but we take for now .
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Right in time for Ji vacation .
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And for Hoffman, colder anomalies building in lol .
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This. Even if the GFS was wrong it did tend to slowly adjust to trends. This new updated GFS is abysmal trainwreck and needs serious work. It’s been horrific this winter. .
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Check these differences out before day 4, lol what in the world .
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This model is horrible. This is 48 hours out dif between 18/00z GFS. My guess is now GFS won’t phase the s/w with tpv piece. .
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This also sort of aligns with MJO phase shift… HECS incoming Jan 25th .
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All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change. .
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GFS is phasing part of the TPV with that southern vort, miniature version of what euro was doing a few days ago. Do we buy? Idk? I bet GEFS will come in colder and with some weenie hits because of it though .
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GFS vs Euro in 50/50 land, lol .
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Biggest difference with GFS is it continues to close off a tpv in 50/50 land vs euro which basically has nothing .
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The only saving grace right now is the possibility of a +PNA/-EPO around Jan 20th. Ensembles kind of hinted at it today. We’ve been head faked multiple times this year though so hard to trust .
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Yesterdays 12z euro and a few runs of other models before that were phasing tpv energy with the southern vort creating a strong 50/50. When That didn’t happen and the euro caved I knew this threat was toast…. All we can do is move on to the next one. .
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Some winters are just like this. We will get a big snowstorm again, and when it happens it will be 100X more satisfying………..I hope right? .
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18z GFS backing off the 50/50 as well, once the 11th system didn’t phase with the TPV I knew we were boned .
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Can’t afford it right now or I would ha. It’s alright, it will snow again, maybe not this year, but one day…. And the wait will be worth it. .
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It got absolutely schooled with the 50/50 setup. .
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Taking a break from this hobby for my own sanity. Hopefully we see some flakes Sunday/Monday. I need to take a breather. This winter has been brutal .
