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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    NAM gonna have more precip I think edit. Well it’s wetter down in NC early on vs 12z. But we’ll see where it heads.
  2. Heisy
    Pretty big win for the cmc/NAM camp If it holds
  3. Heisy
    Euro trending more like cmc with phasing of the tpv, would warm things up here. Now looks like Thursday may be a better threat for frozen heh
  4. Heisy
    I always wonder how much the models account for urban heat islands. I live in Northeast so we are a little colder than like center city etc. I’ve seen ice accru on my sidewalks and backstreets before but not enough to make it dangerous. I won’t be driving but any frozen precip is fun to track. Wonder if it starts as some sleet here
  5. Heisy
    I’m wondering if we can get the blocking to return by the very end of the month. I’d love to roll the dice with another block in marchs bowling season.
  6. Heisy
    Sounds like a dream storm to me. We’ve had some incredible rates in Philly in a few storms over the last 20 years, but none like that which lasted long enough for 20+...Jan 2011 part 2, March 2018 thunder snow event. Amazing but short lasting. I was out of town for feb 2006s morning ccb band. Few others I’m sure. Wish there was video of the event somewhere. I was born 86 so my memory of snowstorms start around 93 or so.
  7. Heisy
    I’d post gif but not sure how to on here to compare runs, but regardless I agree the euro has sucked lately especially, was just posting for prosperity. The eps actually looked better surprisingly. Very odd storm right now on the guidance. This is like ptype nightmare to the max.
  8. Heisy
    Wasn’t a fan of 18z euro at the end of run fwiw. Less tpv press and more separation between waves. Heights ticked higher as well.
  9. Heisy
  10. Heisy
    Euro/gfs have that too just not in same spot. It’s the frontal boundary from high. Could be some lead precip out ahead of the low. This is from gfs but you get the idea.
  11. Heisy
    I bet as we get closer models trend warmer at the surface towards the city. Probably end up like 27 at onset going up to 32-33. Obv this changes if it’s a strung out mess...LV different story I just don’t see Philly sitting below 20 degrees during a precip event. That ain’t happening though it’s nice to dream
  12. Heisy
    Agreed. I bet we get a weenie gfs run at 12z as it ticks SE like rest of guidance. I hope at least. Give me 6 hours of bliss lol
  13. Heisy
    Separation seems slightly worse but not game ending. This would still work the main vort is just weaker
  14. Heisy
    Don’t have H5 yet but icon is farther SE. 12z NAM also looked like it wanted to do a CMC progression. Would be seasonal trend. Man the euro is hot garbage right now
  15. Heisy
    12z icon looks much farther SE. I can’t tell if it’s doing a NAM/CMc progression though, don’t have H5 yet just slp/precip
  16. Heisy
    The out of range NAM looks to be doing a similar progression as CMC. Just something to keep an eye on, it could completely screw up the spacing and the event itself.
  17. Heisy
    Yes, that’s the biggest threat to the system right now
  18. Heisy
    CMC ensemble don’t agree with the OP. It actually looks pretty decent with better spacing & cold press
  19. Heisy
    I’m here haha was up late sticking my head out windows and walking around the block like a nut. I was pretty down on it after a few of those EPS runs but even the 6z made a nice jog SE. I appreciate the credit it was kind of how I saw the pattern progressing. Sucks the para stopped running again it looked good at the end of its run last nights. Let’s keep working on the spacing and we’re good to go.
  20. Heisy
    Psu you nailed it. The models are trending better with hanging the TPV around more which is suppressing the follow up wave. The 00z & 6z cmc go as far as making it so slow to depart that no true storm would form because there’s no spacing. Few more shifts and dc thru Philly are in the game.
  21. Heisy
    No separation between the tpv and main wave so it gets all fooked. It’s likely wrong, not much support for that at all
  22. Heisy
    Dude you and I are soul mates, sorry haha. I’d take 2 feet of ice, let’s do it. No power for a month and National guard
  23. Heisy
    Seems odd though how often do you see a snow event with snow all the way out to upstate ny and here at the same time
  24. Heisy
    Yea cmc doesn’t have wave separation with the tpv so it gets all fooked. Meanwhile the Ukie is a hit
  25. Heisy
    Gfs is an epic ice storm next week
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