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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    We def take vs seeing this run go farther S/weaker, that’s for sure. .
  2. Heisy
    Type of system you see in late March/Early April. Gotta be lucky and get under the best CCB band. Best shot up towards mountains and high elevations of VA right now I’d guess. There were some EPS members that had this type of solution. Snow fall output from this run does mimic eps placement to a degree, we also saw ukie bring it up the coast. .
  3. Heisy
    Kind of does a Ukie track. It’s all rain though, not that I’d care about thermals on a Nogaps hah. Where’s Ralph with the CRASS .
  4. Heisy
    .
  5. Heisy
    That’s to be expected since all the 12z models now have the closed low…unfortunately problem is latitude and progressive flow. .
  6. Heisy
    12z rgem trended towards nam/gfs at H5 .
  7. Heisy
    12z NAM looks good again at end of run. Means nothing, but we take .
  8. Heisy
    Here’s a better look at 6z eps .
  9. Heisy
    From a met on our Philly board, gfs sometimes thinks its 6 hour forecast guess is better than observations. Usually a good 24 hours to flush it out. Still there by 18z today then maybe we got something…. Fun tidbit, think we would have been NAMed at 6z lol, energy looks strong enough where it would have redeveloped fwiw. Nice uptick 6z eps, still not a ton of support, but step in right direction .
  10. Heisy
    Difference between GFS vs Euro same hour…. Can see wouldn’t take a whole lot for euro to look like GFS, but same goes for other way around .
  11. Heisy
    Ukie closes off the ULL well behind the lead front. Is well S though and only shows in the apps….still lends some credit towards a possible GFS solution. We would need to thread the needle here almost perfectly… Actually more favorable in S mid Atlantic on GEFS (remember factor in potential surface temps here) .
  12. Heisy
    CMC almost tries to pull same thing but ULL can’t get going and trough is a little too progressive. Icon has a gfs progression, but doesn’t have nearly enough juice with left over energy. Let’s get some support from ukie or euro tonight .
  13. Heisy
    SSW reaction puts us around mid March for affects. So probably see some blocking potentially show up around then. Also, for this next potential event I put it at like 1% happening. Need the perfect thread the needle with a bombing low getting cutoff from the flow because the airmass is such garbage. It will at least keep my interest during 00z There were maybe 3-4 eps members that had some snow for us. .
  14. Heisy
    This being said I’m not getting even a little bit excited unless we see 2-3 runs in a row and some other support. .
  15. Heisy
    I wouldn’t have expected every ensemble member to jump on this solution. There are def a few that have a similar progression though and I’d say the mean at least trended towards stretching the trough out and allowing a potential new low to form at base. Long shot but only thing worth tracking it seems for a while so… .
  16. Heisy
    I noticed the 12z Ukie did something similar but didn’t leave enough energy with ULL to create anything… 18z icon kind of had same progression as well… Temps are gonna be an issue regardless. Looks like instead of diving into the trough the NS races ahead and you get the shortwave kind of pinned underneath everything Definite thread the needle… .
  17. Heisy
    Ok, so this is just one run, but we’ve seen miniature hints of this across other models. This would be a “make your own cold air” type event. Energy closes off while front of wave escapes east. Man, Can we get lucky one time?! .
  18. Heisy
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  19. Heisy
    Uhhh….. major changes on 18z gfs. Looks like icon, stronger version of 12z euro .
  20. Heisy
    The big help would be if the NS piece doesn’t dive into trough like GFS but runs ahead like cmc .
  21. Heisy
    Ukie actually looks somewhat interesting at 144 too. See if euro shows changes tonight .
  22. Heisy
    00z cmc has the progression that we’d need. Doesn’t phase in the NS, nice hit for you guys .
  23. Heisy
    Taking this from my Philly forum. GFS showing some stratospheric help. Smarch upcoming? 3 weeks from the 12/13th would put us around the end of first week of March for normal effect range. .
  24. Heisy
    Yea for this system to work out as advertised we would probably need that lead wave to disrupt the flow and have the main one dig far enough S. Thing is there’s no blocking leading up to it so it will likely be more progressive then some models showing. Long shot, but ya never know .
  25. Heisy
    Im in Bensalem these days, guess I’ll stay up for this. Work nights but I’m off .
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