Heisy

I’ll be in the minority here and don’t want to get flamed, but I just don’t agree. It kind of looks like a smoothed out version of the OP. The lead up to that wave still has too much Ridge link up that’s why the lead wave on all the OP models and ensembles favors snow into the Midwest and lakes. The only hope is for a low to develop on the backside of that trough, a miller B. Looks like EPS does that but mostly favors NE. Not trying to be negative. We’re still far out I just think the devil is in the details here… .

Fun way to fail on the euro today. Hard to buy euro at all considering other models not bringing energy eastward. .

This likely won’t “cut” it, actually it will probably cut lol, this winter lol .

This was possibly a trend towards GFS Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OP Can see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z .

Looks like the western trough ticked W at 90hrs on 18z Euro, ensemble/control rolling now. .

I know we’re speaking 10 days out but this is an absolutely huge difference for a mean. Like Brooklyn said we need a few days to shake things out. Just hope at this point… .

I probably have PTSD from the next event upcoming. I realize GEFS ensemble will almost always follow OP, but I really really want to see a fast reversal by 12z tomorrow. .

Awesome, looks like GEFS went towards the OP, this winter… .

Euro at least has some support with Canadian, JMA, ensembles etc. just the way this winter works the least favorable model ends up always winning. Can we get lucky just one time? .

I compared wrong hours my bad… just a little different… .

.

GFS still much different vs euro and Canadian with the pac energy. Going to take a few more days for models to start to agree on how that energy comes east. .

Control always follows the OP to an extent. Idk the science behind it exactly. It’s lower resolution so smooths things out a bit. It probably wouldn’t be as good at picking up CAD etc. Need a met. to explain, just basing this on observation. Not that it matters at all, but I do think the OP would have probably gone inland a bit, but would have def had a lot of WAA snows ahead of the low. We’re 10-12 days out, models still figuring out how that Pac energy will progress east. We have the overall indexes on our side so at this point all we can do is hope. By end of weekend hopefully we have a legit threat to track. .

Maybe digging a little too fast this run, but holy moly. EPS will probably go bonkers this run with an op run like this .

30 year anniversary, oof .

Agreed, i think 14-16th period looks fantastic, my Negativity today was more towards this 10-11th range where we saw the euro yesterday blow up an event because it ejected the energy out west faster. Tonight GFS still not pushing energy along. Canadian does but it’s kind of sloppy. GFS still looks solid as we move beyond the 11th… .

Right now I’m not buying the potential around the 10-11th after today’s runs. You want to sell me 15-17th, that has more legs because the cold def looks to be established by then, but that’s even more in fantasy land. Just seeing too much of a push towards burying the energy out west and delaying any transfer. I’d imagine we’ll see EPS go that direction tonight. Hope I’m wrong :/ 18z snow mean is horrid through 360 hours, but that’s to be expected since the OP didn’t really manage anything until the big one at the very end of the run

I’m with you Ralph, the snow mean also favors cutters. There are some hits mixed in but once again….you guys are the pros and a lot smarter than me. I’m just a weenie. I was hyped after I saw yesterday’s 12z run, but something isn’t sitting right with me after todays 12z runs. I’m not all giddy like a few others .

So eps doesn’t bury the energy as much as OP, that’s a plus….. .

Not sure I see it that way you guys do. I see the same BS with models dumping tons of energy in southwest that never seems to want to come east. Promotes way too much ridging ahead of it. Like I mentioned this morning. We went from 12z showing this pac energy around day 7-10 headed east much faster on yesterdays euro, to this….we’re also seeing agreement on it from the Canadian and gfs. May have to wait till 15th-20th for a storm threat if this happens…which is fine and still fits the progression date, but we’re getting closer and closer to April at that point .

No I agree, I’ve been around the block. I’m just getting a little impatient these days .

While things don’t look bad, I was a little disappointed in seeing the OP/eps delay ejecting that western energy vs yesterdays 12z porn run. Here is 00z vs 12z OP comparison. I know it’s an OP run 10 days out, just saying. .

EPS is drool worthy .

Yes, check out the temps. We have cold available because of the -epo and block. This is the best setup you can ask for in March imo. That’s HECS territory, but it’s day 9-10+ so… .

This is what you want to see in March. A retrograded block can cause some crazy stuff to happen in March. You pin that block there and any incoming energy would dig and dig under it. This probably would have lead to a really big event. Though this looks a lot better than GFS .