Heisy

I’d preach caution with GFS and GEFS right now imo. Think it’s slowly caving towards farther S vort pass guidance. I’m all in for storm 2 right now for NE though .

I’m in love with storm 2 for you guys… ensembles look great for a Mauler type redeveloper. I’d be excited if I were you guys. Think the speed of the pac is just too much for us down in Philly. Storm 1 is just a mess right now for everyone. Think GFS is bogus and slowly caving to other guidance Ensembles look awesome for storm 2, I like the look at the end of ukie. Hopefully euro gives us some fun. I’m rooting hard for this one… need a chase bad… .

Goes from the image above…. To this…, keep backing the ridge up and we have an outside shot .

Storm 2 is a miller B with better PNA domain going into it. Still though it would be nice if the damn pac could just slow down a little bit to allow storm 2 to dig farther west. That storm phased with the STJ, what a beauty. We need to Back this ridge up so it’s closer to Idaho or so for it to be able to phase at our latitude. .

That’s what I was wondering. If the PAC can just slow down a little bit for storm two the main wave could have phased sooner. Just rooting for one of these to be a chase-worthy event, I don’t have an inch of snow this year in Philly .

The second event has better PNA domain setup like you mentioned. For you guys in storm 1 it’s hard for me to trust GFS with where the EPS is sitting right now. We’ll see where we stand by tomorrow .

18z gfs few ticks away from being a HECS for storm 2, phases in just a touch late .

Wow! .

12z JMA is still our best hope .

West coast trough and PNA position just killing us. The first system could maybe trend to a light event over Philly and dc but you’re going to have BL temp issues in the coastal plain since the low isn’t going to mature until it’s way out to sea At least it falls at night. Both events have the “PNA” ridge too far E to allow any event to mature at our latitude. I have a proposition, if that storm 2 destroys NE any where close to what OP has any one down for a group trip? .

West coast trough and PNA position just killing us. The first system could maybe trend to a light event over Philly and dc but you’re going to have BL temp issues in the coastal plain since the low isn’t going to mature until it’s way out to sea of the wave Is as weak as euro shows it At least it falls at night. Both events have the “PNA” ridge too far E to allow any event to mature at our latitude. I have a proposition, if that storm 2 destroys NE any where close to what’s OP has any one down for a group trip? .

On the euro at least this is looking more and more like a W -> E vort pass so it’s all about the latitude of the main energy as it heads E. .

Big improvement coming on 6z eps, left over pac love phases in with pac energy which allows PNA ridge to pump a little better in front…. That helps main shortwave dig better .

I still got my bags packed, waiting on the 00z run to confirm .

Canadian looked better early on but the wave on its heels ended that… .

Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea. I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go… It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response.

Each run after last nights 00z killer has trended worst…certainly seems like a trend to me .

This. Exactly what I meant. Little things like vort strength and low location are going to change. The PNA problem is more of a large scale issue. That’s not a good trend. Not writing anything off, just pointing it out. .

Oh yea for sure bud, just pointing that out for what we really would like to see reverse at 00z .

18z eps in general is a much weaker vort pass, really getting screwed by the PNA. Still time to revert back, but this winter what can go wrong usually freaking does…. 18z eps vs 12 .

Poor trend in PNA domain, won’t allow the storm to really dig and turn the corner. Speed everything up. Can see that represented well in the SLP placements and snowfall map of the members, bunch of hits near DE and SNJ because the ULL vort slides SE .

Yea if the initial primary tracks far enough S the incoming energy behind the event which showed up today on the euro would act as a kicker. The low would bomb and then track ESE before going N. Kind of like the JMA. Right now for any hope we need the primary shortwave to track farther S .

Yea that’s my hope right now. Don’t see a ton of hope down here in Philly unless primary shifts a lot farther S, but I’m really hoping for a NE bomb. At least it won’t be life threatening like a chase to buff was lol .

Yes exactly that’s what I was saying in my earlier post. Really didn’t allow the low to tug west once it deepened. Noise at this range still, long way to go. .

One negative from the run is the energy behind the system has strengthened and sped up, this is causing it to kind of push the main ULL east at the end, doesn’t really allow to tug westward. .