Heisy

No one wants it to snow more than me. Trust me. I’ve storm chased snowstorms where I couldn’t afford it but went anyway. Hell I lost a job because of 2015 NE event . Ji will tell you if he recalls, but the 2001 bust sent me into a depression at 14 years old. I’m sick in the head when it comes to snow. I used to feel the same way when I saw negative posts, but I’m just being realistic. The week after this storm? There’s reason to have tempid excitement The antecedent air is too warm. The first storm would need to head into 50/50 position, but it’s not doing that on the models. Instead it’s lifting to the NW. We don’t get snowstorms, normally, with a HP off the SE coast like is being shown. We’d need a monster ULL to close off and stall in the perfect spot and even then with this airmass it likely would be too warm. I’m more enthused with the week after this event. I’m still interested in seeing if the far Nw burbs can cash in though...I’m only talking about the city and immediate burbs of course.

Meteorlogically speaking it will be a fun track, don’t expect snow though

You have to love both the GFS & CMC long range OP runs....Polar vortex paying a visit along with solid +PNA.... hopefully ensembles agree...I’d say if that pattern happens well cash in soon

There’s not enough cold air to work with imo. Not saying it couldn’t work, but it’s a longshot

Yep. This storm legit sent me into a month long depression as a 15 year old. (Yeah I’m a bit strange)...One of the NE forum members has a nice write up if you google it, but back then the 12z euro didnt come out until evening times, and if im remembering correctly there was no 00z euro. I think one of the 12z euro runs finally backed down, but the AVN stayed on board for a bit which is why forecasters had trouble reversing courses. Ill still always remember JBs newsletter few days before. What a bastard storm. I also remember Ji and Noreaster hyping it up for a week on wright weather lol...what a beautiful 500mb though, so damn close.

Wow that LR EPS look is a classic southern slider/mid Atlantic setup. Nice 50/50 style confluence and a positive tilted southern stream along with the obvious PNA ridge

Good post, but one thing...I recall the opposite last year. The long range always showed shades of a great pattern, but would end up changing over and over...hopefully the look holds this time

I agree. This is the first legit potential event if it holds for a few days. The pattern is conducive. Nice PNA. Blocking isn’t amazing but it’s there, a nice Pre storm ULL...., issue has to do with timing and placement as always with how that 2nd shortwave kind of swings under the ULL and where that ULL sets up. It could go to crap if it takes too long. Then you’d have another over phased Great Lakes low, but as it stands this might be our first track.

Rather have it now than end of month

Actually I’d rather the AO rise now in November than later. This is just weenie science, but what matters is post thanksgiving.

Yeah, means nothing the sample size is just way too small

Ohhh right right, I’m mixing up the years. Still remember Jan 25 that year but not much else. I left in the evening to a WWF event of all things and TWC saying storm is shifting west. Came home around 11 to a winter storm warning for 6-12 and tried staying awake for the first flakes...checking the radar at every 8 on the clock on the local forecast...such a dork haha. Of course I passed out, but caught the tail end of the heavy stuff before the dry slot.

It just seems we’ll never know the exact answer to that because there are just too many factors. Not only dealing with meteorological, but we have constant changing climate issues as well.

One of my favorite winters in Philly. If you’re talking about 00-01. It had an event pretty much every month. Just an exciting winter with the NAO in late December. Dec 30 still the first legit snowstorm I stayed up all night on wxforums. I remember speaking to Ji at like 2 in the AM he was depressed since the skies were clear with a winter storm warning lol.

Regardless if we've cashed in on anything yet, it is clear that we're getting off on the right foot with a bunch of threats to track. Beats the hell out of last year.

Does anyone have the 00z UKIE beyond 144? @ 144 itself it seems IMO to have the best setup out of all the models (6z GFS/GEFS def shifted S as well)...@ 144 on the UKIE there is also some energy in Canada that looks like it would dive out ahead of the main ULL, helping with confluence and shifting it Southward potentially.

If this 50/50 low ends up being legit and we see modeling strengthen it as we get closer it certainly wouldn't shock me to get some front end frozen even into the cities. We'll see if any other models hop on this idea as we get closer.

That little pivot around noon today should be real fun for a lot of you guys. Really jealous right now. You guys deserve it though. Closing in on an inch here in Philly. Btw, can I change my username to SaintNick or Folesadelphia?

As a Philadelphian the one recent now cast event that bumped N on the day of the event was the infamous Eagles - Lions snow game. That was supposed to be a DC event with flurries up here.

This one stings a little because it is generally a textbook look, but we had a few pesky things not go our way. Just a bunch of annoying short waves all over the place. I actually personally feel the 2nd shortwave that misses the phase hurts us by kicking everything East. It would really suck if this was like Late Feb Early March, but we aren’t even thru mid Dec, long way to go of course.

We truly live in the golden age of snowstorms. Every year for the most part seems like the someone on the E.C. gets hit with a HECS sized storm. Could be a change in climate, or just noise with such a small sample size. Who knows, 25 years from now we could be telling our kids or grand kids that we lived in the most amazing time for snowstorms.

I doubt anyone will have sympathy for me, but check out how the first dryslot gets into Philly, and look at how the deformation band sets up just NW of the city while I'm high and dry. I still got like 18-20" or so, but could of had 30" if the storm was 25 miles S literally.

This was the 12z run on the 16th, this was the last run of the EURO that didn't show the storm. Then, here is the 00z 17th run, the first run that actually showed something resembling the final product

On another note it is kind of sick that I can remember individual model runs 6 years later. I am insane.

I vaguely remember this model run. Obviously it didn't come close to the final outcome, but just for kicks does anyone have the associated QPF chart that matched this 500mb model run. That is the sickest thing I've ever seen I have to imagine it gave someone like 40-50" lol.