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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    What a setup haha... real close this run
  2. Heisy
    It reminds me of the December 2000 cold front that had epic thunderstorms and setup a nice pattern that lead to the dec 30 event. Of course that was a bust west of philly, but pattern does look good. It’s better than missing this storm and looking like crap. im chasing to Williamsport Pa. at this rate the best forcing will end up NW of even me
  3. Heisy
    Yeah idk what he means by that. We’re just as bad as DC pretty much.
  4. Heisy
    GFS at 189 hours looks interesting with the setup
  5. Heisy
    CMC almost looks like the maps it had with this storm at day 10
  6. Heisy
    To brighten the mood check day 7 gfs. Not bad with that energy coming down from the northwest. I can’t even fathom tracking another event right now though lol
  7. Heisy
    Why you guys even consider the GFS is beyond me. As a veteran model watcher it always jumps the gun at the 36-48 hr stage. ALWAYS. I only use it for determining if a storm has potential in the medium range. Specifics are a joke. Look at 12z run for more reality.
  8. Heisy
    Awesome! Sent you a pm.
  9. Heisy
    Hey all. I’m chasing this storm up from Philly. I don’t want to drive more than 3 hours tops. I was thinking either poconos, but also Williamsport or around the Harrisburg region. Any spots you’d recommend based on current data? I’m a little worried in E PA about the deformation zone lifting farther N than anticipated, but that’d still be better for c pa. Can’t decide! I’d be leaving early tomorrow morning so still time to get some model runs in.
  10. Heisy
    We’re going to have plenty of opportunities. This one is tough to swallow for cities point SE, but it’s only mid December. Can tell already this winter will produce.
  11. Heisy
    It’s total unsupported crap. CMC is well north 00z
  12. Heisy
    Overdone. It’s gonna be sleet with a lp sitting there in Philly. Let’s make a bet. Haha btw I might go to Jim Thorpe like you said
  13. Heisy
    It’s one run and a qpf tick Upper air features are fine. Idk man it could be worst you could be in Philly with hours and hours of sleet
  14. Heisy
    I’m headed to either Hershey or like Jim Thorpe. Gonna get mauled over there hopefully.
  15. Heisy
    Gfs close to showing a Miller B bomb next Tuesday. I thought this winter was supposed to suck technically it’s a hit for coastal region I believe
  16. Heisy
    Look how far the low tucked west on the gfs down towards Delaware compared to 12z and that was one run in difference. This is how the gfs does it. It’ll catch up eventually. I’ve grown to the point where I just use it for longer range wave length ideas and storm potential, but specifics is Gd pointless
  17. Heisy
    You see that lighter precip near Philly. I garuantee that ends up being sleet if that low ends up in that position, I still think philly can do 4-10 I just think 12+ is way overdon. Wait till NAM gets closer we’ll have a better idea
  18. Heisy
    That looks overdone probably up to the city. More sleet would happen imo.
  19. Heisy
    Still too early to call a win yet. I have a feeling 18z NAM delivers though for some reason
  20. Heisy
    I’d say start between 12-3 wednesday
  21. Heisy
    OT but the LR Christmas gfs setup looks almost identical to today’s H5. Pretty crazy. Check out day 8-9. Shortwave diving down which could form 50:50 with nice energy dropping out of NW
  22. Heisy
    6-10 too bold on 95. Imo 3-6 hopefully
  23. Heisy
    Icon is NW
  24. Heisy
    What because of a meso model 3 days away? It’s not impossible, but common.
  25. Heisy
    Still worth it
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