WEATHER53

That’s why outcome analogs should be the method and not theoretical physics. Very good data since 1960. 60 years. Let’s say there are 3 Miller As per season, 180 sample size. Break those 180 down to 1. The low passes within 30 miles of Atlanta. 2. The low is more than 30 miles north of Atlanta 3. The low is more than 30 miles south of Atlanta then overlay that with 1.The high is 30.30 or higher 12 hours before onset 2.The high is lower than 30.30 You will get a decent sample set of 10-20 matching outcomes in each category. No wailing about sample size, the outcomes are what they are When you take #1 on the storm and #1 on the high and 20 instances arise and 15 times DC got 3” or more then there is your model replacement When you take #2 and #2 and 22 instances match and 16 times DC got rain then there is your new and improved, outcome based, non model forecasting. The will is not there mostly due to entrenched commitment to status quo and embedded money issues. i promised you all I had a solution and not just bitching. Let the naysay begin.

All bases covered.

This time it’s sunny beforehand . Good strong well located high and not some too Far East high already moistening up and we were cloudy

Depends on Pittsburgh and Boston It’s better this time. 30 in Pittsburgh and 19 in Boston is shit for DC. Other way around just fine

How’s the confidence meter?

Ok thanks

I think Bowie’s wife was.

But the situation does favor us. High in the right place, western low some problem but not strong nor too far north, then coastal and by now it’s a drawn out event thru Friday. Highs 25-30

2-6

The high pressure looks really good, finally not so Far East, 30.40 into PA is great for us.

Get it 150 miles nw and it’s all snow perfection for DC

Sell appointed snow ball busters are for the trash heap

I heard a limb drop out back when outside. Not big.

50 mph winds off Ontario and tremendous Tug Hill snows 8’+.

Were you Ralph then?

Epic lake effect around that time.

That’s like a 2005 battlecry!

Up to 35.5 and almost all rain

Wet snow at times over last 40 minutes 34.6F

I got some mist and some little icy grainy thing 35f

These highs are cold but too east. Better for DC when Pittsburgh is colder than Boston

Blizzard of 66 got me going.

Wow. It snowed in Beltsville that night and earliest on record for me. The sound sticks with you.

Rifle shots at times.

I think this IS as good an outcome as possible for freezing rain. It’s 27 and dark and that’s a big difference between 29/30 this afternoon mid Feb. Could mid Jan have squeaked out another 1-1.5F colder? Sure not the wholesale outages pre Pepco trimming days. It’s still a dangerous event though.