WEATHER53

Got 2.3” here just north of DC

Where are you?

1pm obs 31.7F very light snow 2.25” accumulation

Bummer on the personal. Where is home vs now? The book on Miller Bs is mostly don’t work around here. They are 100% forecasted and 25% realized. This is Again where analog experiences will Trump models every time I am realizing now most all posters don’t have 20-50 years of weather observations and recordation so naturally models are the focus. I mean honestly models have shown coastal from 150 miles east of OC moving improbably back west, a 24 hour stall, then tucked around Norfolk and now down along NC/SC coastline. The downright hatred of me because I say these things is hopefully now muted by one of the best longtime posters here returning from a lengthy absence and saying a lot of the same things. i want a big event and good weather experiences at all times but there is more to observations, anticipation, forecasting and reporting during the event than models.

12 noon obs Ver light sniw 30.5F 2.25” on the board

Greens upon DC now.

You get a foot plus and we get half foot plus so everybody happy!

27.5 at 8 and 31 at 11 Kemp Mill 2 miles nne GA Ave and Beltway Gottz tell location

32.4 Does primary look further west than thought?

Looks like center is just south of St Louis currently?

38F Dry. Feels like snow. Thin clouds out to west and it’s helpful when real clouds don’t take over until about 3 hours after sunset.

OMG. First two paragraphs my mantra. You are exactly right. They try to do too much, try to be too detailed and too far in advance. A binocular like approach instead of a microscope is the way to go. Now you are rightly somewhat sainted here so you won’t get lambasted for your comments. And then you delve into the even more verboten references to personal experiences and analogs of many other similar storms! Wonderful post by you.

Will post this here about storm because got a royal hen clucking last night when posted something in storm thread Other than model depictions or discussion Am seeking actual help and comment on this- Looked up my analogs on previous storms and if I am assessing the location correctly of current storm center being in NE OK then that historically does favor DC as to the transfer not missing us. Hope later on it ends up no further than central KY before it gives it up . 35.5F currently

It already has worked well. Analogs. That’s why I asked snippy.

The origins of this is out there now. How is it, where is it as compared to forecasts for it at this time ?

Some biblical maps!

No

Classic look of a B Dc does good. Baltimore better. NE MD to Philly spectacular

Either3-5 or 8-12 if part two sets in How did you find out about this weather board??????

Perfection

Gotta ask about the low being 150-200 miles east of OC and then getting pushed west for 12+ hours? I know there is a high to east of ocean low but still; that projection is rare and I don’t rememer something like that having occurred before?

Winds pulsing up again 10-15 10pm and 20 to just gusted 33 now

Which one that season was it that lasted over 30 hours to near 40 but was never heavy but steady light to moderate?

Current tally for the three storm model prediction in 5 days is little storm verified, moderate storm tonight into tomorrow gone, huge storm Sunday going away. We will see if they hit one out of three or two out of three. Either way, I’m grateful the other science methods I rely on for last 20 years Don’t have an average of 1/3 or 2/3. Vaccines are the rage now, glad they have a 99% effacy rate. So many many other examples also. Used to be tubes and transistors everywhere. Now microdot miniaturization and phones we hold in the palm of our hands that not long ago filled an entire room. Models are still transistors and tubes. Far more emphasis needs to be placed on the 3 day and inside and stop wasting time and money on these 5-10 out tasks which are simply too precise to actually be of value. Break it down into zones, say from Maine to VA and east of mountains is zone A. Ditch the 20” snow graphics for 5+ and merely issue text that Zone A has heightened opportunity for heavy snow in 5-10 days and then get down to the very suggestive and explicit graphics come day 3 Not merely bitching but rather offering suggestions and solutions.

Whichever one could crow confirmation. Cover every base and then maybe by tomorrow night my fun part arrives, live observations.