WEATHER53

1pm obs 38/24. 1 degree increase in last hour, I think evap will be 50% so that gets me to 31 with steady light-moderate. Aloft seems helpful so might be better than 50% but it’s a safe way of predicting

Ra*dal* Do you still have your great pictures from Feb 2007 that you could share here or email to me ?

Gassed up the observation machine and ready for duty

Thought this was a weather observation thread?

I think yes!

33.3 and dews soaring up . Ground is frozen and that might be a factor

You are quite correct Models exist to sustain themselves. It’s all we’ve had for 30 years and they are not looking into any different methods. The very nature of ensembles is to further the cover all bases method such that come funding time one of those 30 panels can be presented as confirmation to the unknowing Dept of Commerce people. Im a weather nut also and let’s face it the cartoons are fun to look at. They are just not predictive of weather but rather illustrative of it Not a troll either but rather experientially seasoned. Used to be 100+ of us clamoring about models back in 2005, over time as the blooms faded participants of regularity have shrunk to 20 all of whom vigorously defend their baby. I thank all of you who helped educate me about 850s and 500 and a Few other things but models and many of the alphabet soup of indexes have not proven to be general fund of knowledge enhancing Thank you for the courage of your comment, more of same is needed even with the chastizements we face

All bases covered

29.5 at 6pm coldest for time this season

33.6 for my high coldest daytime of the season

Looks like a busy 4/5 day period and models showing every possible outcome from ideal 997 off va beach to central lakes cutter.

Wish we could have a model thread limited to 4 days or closer. The 7+ day models have been more useless this year than ever and I did not think that was possible. Until the Entire platform of models is changed from giving examples to making predictions then we continue to get the same clap trap dozens and dozens of examples every 6 hours like we have last 20 years. I know of no “science” that is the same or less efficient than it was 20 years ago.

The night before the cancellation I experienced -2 temp at 1am and 30mph winds. The old scale wind chill was like -40. Friend up near Sugarloaf said he was -7 with sustained 35 and like -60 old scale. The winds really let up quick after 1am but never died complete and I hit -6 which was tied in 94.

Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks

5 to 10 degrees above average for the high and 5 to 10 degrees below average for lows. Pretty unusual

Honestly it been7-10 days away from a good pattern all winter and for most lousy winters. Its not science nor good forecasting to show such an improvement time after time, week after week, and consider it a success IF a more favorable pattern,or even one shot circumstance, does finally arrive

And that’s because this is not a proven predictive asset.

I know you feel strongly. I have lived with the facts for 20 years. It’s a take a shot at all scenarios and claim confirmation when one hits. We’ve had about 7 solid snow looks in the 5 day+, one has semi confirmed

Yet people go to bat for them. At their very core they Do Not predict weather but rather give examples of it. As long as the consumers of model services accept that then nothing changes. Models have not improved much in 20 years. They have tried to become more specific and it does not work. This mess since mid to late December is another example. It’s not possible to zero in on something 500 miles off the west coast and predict that in 6-10 days it will be a low pressure off SC coast, or off VA capes, or over Pittsburgh and it ends up In central Great Lakes or off Florida coast and out to sea. They can’t do it so ultimately they show about 32 scenarios per day then a whole new set the next day Ji, THIS is why they make us cry.

I think prime time cold started today 1/7 and runs thru 1/16

Fret not young Skywalker. The force is with Mon-Wed time frame

I still like it

February has looked very mild in most long ranges Wevd been practicing “10 days away” since mid December with zip and same zip for the theoretical benefit of SSW.

This is a great location for origin and kinda pulling the cold air along behind it

The 1985 event is my wind chill record. Walking around at 1am with -2F and 25-30 still sustained with gusts to 40 after stronger winds in the daylight. That was old scale and I think it was -50 in peak gusts . I know gusts don’t count but when they hit you they do,