WEATHER53

We don’t have ridiculous expectations. We do seek competency. You are absolutely right and glad to hear you say it-The Models Try To Do Too Much. So, do less or do different Want nice atmosphere when Obs time starts so will leave it at that. But, when things slow down will release a thread with detailed, rational and verified wholesale different method of modeling. I don’t just bitch, I offer suggestions and possible solutions.

It’s not”drying up” because it does not predict but rather right now is covering the drier example base. 6 and 12 hours from now another example will be given

What is start time?

He deserves credit because he is the best discusser I know of as to what the combined elements of a big snowstorm need to be for our area. He is considerably less skilled in prediction of what an upcoming system will turn out to be and produce.

Thanks and the extreme cold has been pushed back. Delayed but not denied is generally a disaster for snow but not as much for very cold surges although it’s a neutral sign at best. Looks like rollover cold also where it plunges into Ohio Valley and west and then rolls over mountains and onto us in a modified state as opposed to strong cold which plunges directly down upon us from NY State and PA .

How cold is max cold period?

Agree and 35 here and heavy 1”ph stuff but around noon and just could not accumulate except on old snow

87 Veterans Day is what I was responding to and not Feb. DCA hit 48 Feb 87 that day and most Obs were in mid 40’s for highs, Yesterday 50-52. Veterans Day was low 60’s day before, then cold front and around 40 at dawn VD but cold air kept pressing in and became snow around noon . DCA and me got the same, 11”.

If you think you are disputing my overall assertions with one 34 year old example you are sadly mistaken and I wont confirm the scenario you are offering up, Stick with 6 paragraph model worship and always ignore opportunity to learn from situational outcomes.

It’s called too warm of precedent air mass which is what I repeatedly referenced with much rebuke of “models say plenty cold aloft”

That’s a good spot and the only one that I too could remember . There are a few exceptions to the 48 day of rule and all qualified that a cold front did push thru after the 48+ and before onset. That did not happen yesterday and the airmass could not support significant snow around DC proper. Silver Spring Alexandria and Rockville arent Clarksburg . Again good spot on 1987

Not talking about the day before but rather day of. 87 started off around 40 at sunrise.

My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation

Heavy snow, 1”ph rate, but still can’t overcome radience at 34.2F and prime time daylight. snowboard 1.25” , all grassy areas covered, sidewalks and street wet.

The temperature concerns I expressed all day and night yesterday have come true. Later I will share the 50 year old analog method that once again has verified . 11am Obs. 35.4F. Moderate snow and rain mix, mostly wet snow, 0.75” accumulation on board

Correct Big bust way back I think 80’s was precip was rushing up toward us through so VA and long line of thunderstorms formed west to east across GA and north FL and shut it down the end. I think it was NWS Corey I was talking with as this just fell apart. Down the road seen it half dozen more so not frequent, if they fire up south to north then dampening effect not as great

39/25 here. That can do it. Unless it’s an irregular hourly Annapolis may be out already at 40/32,

Well Early this afternoon I called for 43/25 at 9pm and it was 43/28 and now 45/24 so my temperature concerns at the surface are not alleviated. Still looks like 34/35 when steady snow is falling. Can make out with heavy rates thru about 9am then too much radiance

Lots of “mays” plus low confidence nonsense in that statement the ow confidence malarkey needs to go. I do like CWG boom and bust but not the tapping about low confidence Confident to me means you think it is 80-100% gonna happen. I really don’t even know what low confidence is supposed to mean, it’s like sweet sour . You think it is low probability? Thats not confidence in any form . Get back to me when you are willing to state a forecast without weasel disclaimers and qualifiers.

I’m going to predict that at 9pm DCA is 43/25 so that evaps down to 34/35 come crunch time. Now I may be missing that colder drier air will be pushing in before onset? Am I? Otherwise, this current air mass won’t do it.

Models jumping 125 miles with moderate-heavy snow is sad it’s going to be too warm at the surface and not the right wind direction nor dewpoints to correct that. Even predawn DC area will struggle at 33-35 with steady precip falling which would frequently get us cold enough but can’t this time

Analog wise I see mixing and rain issues even around DC so going to veer off and forecast DCA will not reach nor exceed 4” with same accumulation maxes likely even 15 miles north and west.

Highs going to be too strong to allow low into mouth of bay. Over or 35 miles east of VA Beach most likely track

2.5-3 in fully shaded areas and no ground bare.

85 was epic cold. That and 1994 are my record low of -6. Inauguration Day was 11F at the time for it, I think DCA was 14 for a high, I was 9F 1994 just incredibly cold in afternoon with falling afternoon temperatures and 1 at 6pm. Ice storms ar 22F and repeated bitter cold shots 1982 epic back to back Cold Sundays. 1977 for that 35 day period, I think we hit 43 one day and then constant teens and 20’s for highs. Some other great ones in 78 and 79 and this century also but those stand out to me.