WEATHER53

DCA madness again last night Everyone else 24-27 DCA 33 Eveyone else dropping hour by hour until dawn DCA 33 for hours. Wherever those sensors are is a location prohibitive to accuracy for the area the station is designated to represent The thermos are reading correctly for wherever they are, it’s wherever they are thats the problem and produces the skewed and non representative reports. Freedom plaza or the Willard are all asphalt buildings and. concrete. That’s a heat island. DCA has buildings to the west and remainder water or open space. And , when Potomac is frozen or very cold, this still happens.

DCA tried really hard even with south component RIC did make it and I think I had like 11/13 for both,

DCA won’t radiate out overnight to 32 but if winds can stay 10mph thru sunrise Sunday it will hit 32

Talking to my brother In law who moved to Thurmont last year. He talked about an Old Mink Farm place that he says is like 1,600’ elevation. Last night said it was 27 by midnight and high for the day was 48. I did not think those mountains were that high? Anyone else familiar?

38.5 at midnight, coldest of season

42.8 at midnight coldest for time this season High dews and this could play out some frost at 35 or we start to dry out and temps and dews drop in tandem to 30 BWI and IAD

45.5 midnight so lowest at time for season

Easily coldest this time(11pm) for season with 46 at 11pm eclipsing previous 49

Get the drought hypers to contribute

1991 was huge and then it was 92/93 for another then Isabel then 2011 as far as big fetch driven flood events I can remember.

Wow. Some high tides up to 5’ above ground level along western bay areas!

As winter seasons roll on I have become in agreement with something I wasn’t.-“ Don’t waste the cold” DC gets. back to back bellow average months once a year and when that’s DJF it’s gold. Since mid 60s DC gets a big winter about every 5/6 winters and every 6 years the two month cold hits at the right time for us. Mid Oct thru Mid Dec cold is useless. Let Pac roar now and not later

Two 38 mph gusts in last 10 minutes

Steady moderate to heavy rain for 3 hours. 1.32”

48 at midnight which is coldest at time for season

Blew thru here at 2:10 , 35mph gust, 2 minute deluge, 0.12” total, 10 degree temp drop

Rotating east to west rains look to be closer to DC than forecasted yesterday

DCA: 11/13 IAD: 10/17 BWI:11/12 RIC: 11/13 Bwi:0.79”

Got a lot of play as a rogue bolt.

My Winter Outlook for DC area 2021-22 Temps:-0.5 to -2.5. Snowfall:12-15” i don’t have a monthly order because too much conflict. Analog years 1979-80, 1992-93, 2010-11 interesting to note 1979 had a record setting snow around 10/10 so let’s see if we get a cold precip event. 1993 had probably the biggest weather event ever around here March 1993. We dont give the credit for huge single events like that but do apply 5” credit We deemphasize ENSO as it’s erratic and it always come down to the cold air source for DC. We mostly take occurrent events from March into Sept and look for matching patterns or events and forecast forward. I remember about 3/4 years ago Isotherm and me both predicted a -5 February and it hit and although I don’t say Feb I do think we have one -4/-5 month. Thats it and let us know what your outlook is.

Getting gusty up to 30

3 main analogs are good but not great. We continue to deemphasize ENSO analoging and increase a little blocking/cold air source

Winter looking decent

Power back on so good job Pepco!

Explosion up the street and power out here but not street behind . Pole transformer ?