WEATHER53

Doing current extrapolation of dewpoints at steady onset it looks like regions surface will be running 30-33.

The yapping about “it’s a coin flip” is silly and close minded. Three or four posters here have been doing this for 15+ years and have a confirmation rate of 65-70%. That’s not 50/50. They explain in detail what they think the 500mb , nao ,ao,enso, etc will be. Or, they cull analog comparisons based on years of detailed record keeping and analysis. Either approach takes effort and the results are evident. Perhaps we can have one winter absent chirping about “ lucky guessers”

Dewpoints are key and not onset time. We can survive post sunrise as this is a late Jan sun. March events onset time would be main concern

Thank you so much

DCA and Ric on 10Th?

Cosgrove thinks mild Dec, around average Jan, very cold February continuing into March. I asked him about my 12-15”and Keith’s 12 and he thought a bit higher. have Isotherm or Matt put anything out?

Hit Bwi and IAD bullseye, Richmond misses by 1 degree.

Gusted to 37 here. Tough driving on beltway around 10 pm

What are 850’’s? Mid to late October squalls up there can dump high amounts.

Darn it I went early on the prediction and IAD made 33. iI think Sunday night it will and BWI close.

Like the very mild first 10 days October and next would like to avoid any intense mid Atlantic coastal storminess in time period 10/23-10/30. Looking good for winter I think, not spectacular snow but above normal chance of catching a giant one even if only 30% versus the typical 5-10%. I think Jan is quite cold and even Keith does not have a torch like the dreck of last 2 winter. still think we will get 12-15 downtown and 18 to 25 in suburbs, not great but good things to do.

The winds just got here, gust to 30.

It feels like a storm is coming

Early October warmth has nice winter outcomes.

DCA:Oct 30 BWI:OCT 22 IAD:Oct 22 RIC:OCT 23 IAD Oct rain:2.4”

KA- Temps-above average, ranging +1 to +2 monthly snowfall-below average, 12” at DCA This is actually not bad from him 2016-17 he went 5” and last year 8” and in 2016-17 went +5 on temps for two out of three months I don’t have the analogs yet Weather 53 Outlook Temps Dec:0 to +1 Jan:-2.5 Feb:0 to -1 Snowfall: 15” at DCA and 18-22 for IAD, BWI. 10-1/18-Neant to have written that think we will turn dry for Oct and Nov then back to above average for DJF. My primary analog years are 1964-65 and 1969-70. I found the analog years unusually easy to pick Keith and I are pretty far apart on temps and rather close for snowfall

4.7” here in 4 hours overnight with that feeder band. Some sections of BW Pkwy had 6. Luckily my yard drains downhill and away. Another downpour as I post dying tropical feeder bands in the overnight with rolling thunder and intense rain is spooky

That’s what was happening. Flash, then count to around 20, then house shaking thunder that usually only happens when elapsed time is 1-4 seconds, not 20. great explanation-Thanks

Tremendous overpwrformer for a strip from Richmond to northeast MD. One of the biggest t&l downpours ever for midnight into early morning hours 4.7” total here from 11pm to 3 am.

Looks like 3-4” in 60-90 minutes. That’s a scary drive after dark between DC and Balt.Trees bend way over in very heavy rain

2” in last hour. 2.7 total House shaking thunder

Nasty looking radar sw beltway

Florence giving us in DC some serious t&l and downpours. What I had for 20 minutes you had for 24+ hours. Unimaginable.

Serious t/l and downpour.