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WEATHER53

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Everything posted by WEATHER53

  1. WEATHER53
    Over suppression and should relax
  2. WEATHER53
    We usually get one and miss one and there’s a 20 mile swatch that gets the overlap
  3. WEATHER53
    I brought it over here too and I won’t mess up weather section . lose to probably doesn’t want me as an “ally “ but got two of us basically saying same thing.
  4. WEATHER53
    Belongs in banter and not weather Yes, imperious and condescending does piss me off. Post it and they will come.
  5. WEATHER53
    We don’t want to turn this into a mess but nice to see someone else noticing.
  6. WEATHER53
    35 degree highs will melt 4” snow in 2 days but those glacial packs two or three times as long!
  7. WEATHER53
    We don’t have ridiculous expectations. We do seek competency. You are absolutely right and glad to hear you say it-The Models Try To Do Too Much. So, do less or do different Want nice atmosphere when Obs time starts so will leave it at that. But, when things slow down will release a thread with detailed, rational and verified wholesale different method of modeling. I don’t just bitch, I offer suggestions and possible solutions.
  8. WEATHER53
    It’s not”drying up” because it does not predict but rather right now is covering the drier example base. 6 and 12 hours from now another example will be given
  9. WEATHER53
    What is start time?
  10. WEATHER53
    He deserves credit because he is the best discusser I know of as to what the combined elements of a big snowstorm need to be for our area. He is considerably less skilled in prediction of what an upcoming system will turn out to be and produce.
  11. WEATHER53
    Thanks and the extreme cold has been pushed back. Delayed but not denied is generally a disaster for snow but not as much for very cold surges although it’s a neutral sign at best. Looks like rollover cold also where it plunges into Ohio Valley and west and then rolls over mountains and onto us in a modified state as opposed to strong cold which plunges directly down upon us from NY State and PA .
  12. WEATHER53
    How cold is max cold period?
  13. WEATHER53
    Agree and 35 here and heavy 1”ph stuff but around noon and just could not accumulate except on old snow
  14. WEATHER53
    87 Veterans Day is what I was responding to and not Feb. DCA hit 48 Feb 87 that day and most Obs were in mid 40’s for highs, Yesterday 50-52. Veterans Day was low 60’s day before, then cold front and around 40 at dawn VD but cold air kept pressing in and became snow around noon . DCA and me got the same, 11”.
  15. WEATHER53
    If you think you are disputing my overall assertions with one 34 year old example you are sadly mistaken and I wont confirm the scenario you are offering up, Stick with 6 paragraph model worship and always ignore opportunity to learn from situational outcomes.
  16. WEATHER53
    It’s called too warm of precedent air mass which is what I repeatedly referenced with much rebuke of “models say plenty cold aloft”
  17. WEATHER53
    That’s a good spot and the only one that I too could remember . There are a few exceptions to the 48 day of rule and all qualified that a cold front did push thru after the 48+ and before onset. That did not happen yesterday and the airmass could not support significant snow around DC proper. Silver Spring Alexandria and Rockville arent Clarksburg . Again good spot on 1987
  18. WEATHER53
    Not talking about the day before but rather day of. 87 started off around 40 at sunrise.
  19. WEATHER53
    My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation
  20. WEATHER53
    Heavy snow, 1”ph rate, but still can’t overcome radience at 34.2F and prime time daylight. snowboard 1.25” , all grassy areas covered, sidewalks and street wet.
  21. WEATHER53
    The temperature concerns I expressed all day and night yesterday have come true. Later I will share the 50 year old analog method that once again has verified . 11am Obs. 35.4F. Moderate snow and rain mix, mostly wet snow, 0.75” accumulation on board
  22. WEATHER53
    Correct Big bust way back I think 80’s was precip was rushing up toward us through so VA and long line of thunderstorms formed west to east across GA and north FL and shut it down the end. I think it was NWS Corey I was talking with as this just fell apart. Down the road seen it half dozen more so not frequent, if they fire up south to north then dampening effect not as great
  23. WEATHER53
    39/25 here. That can do it. Unless it’s an irregular hourly Annapolis may be out already at 40/32,
  24. WEATHER53
    Well Early this afternoon I called for 43/25 at 9pm and it was 43/28 and now 45/24 so my temperature concerns at the surface are not alleviated. Still looks like 34/35 when steady snow is falling. Can make out with heavy rates thru about 9am then too much radiance
  25. WEATHER53
    Lots of “mays” plus low confidence nonsense in that statement the ow confidence malarkey needs to go. I do like CWG boom and bust but not the tapping about low confidence Confident to me means you think it is 80-100% gonna happen. I really don’t even know what low confidence is supposed to mean, it’s like sweet sour . You think it is low probability? Thats not confidence in any form . Get back to me when you are willing to state a forecast without weasel disclaimers and qualifiers.
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