WEATHER53

Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate. One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch

So we just ended a period where several significant coastal storm snowmakers were model predicted which instead ended up in the Great Lakes. Been going on for 20 years with no significant improvement.

Some day models will abandon their microscopic approach to day 5+ and take a broader approach to things. Some wave 500 miles off the Pacific coast is Impossible to predict where it will end up for the east. If you don’t think so then how do we time after time after time end up with projections that show a low off SC coast, then over DC that then actually ends up in western Great Lakes? ALL the time and more often then not. The ensembles themselves show Exactly what models are really all about-show 32 solutions one of which may hit. To me the Only fun in weather for many years now is making obs during the event. The ups and downs and twists and turns of model watching is bullshit for this so called science.

Low of 21 and high of 34.

SSW is theoretical with no proven track record and for every 4 that are forecasted as the saviorof the mid atlantic about one materializes and then the excuse making about some other interfering factor, Pacific, and repeat cycle. These guys get some following with these elaborate technical discussions that go mostly nowhere for mid atlantic if I could run NOAA I would put all the money into the 5 day or inside, never forecast for the east coast a low that has not reached west coast yet, stick with what we know works which is mostly the AO and NAO, and quit coming up with new, novel theories presented as the latest exciting, and frequently false, fact. Also, the sudden unreliability of the ENSO now needs to be factored in and stop conjuring up how mountain torques in Peru effect east coast USA.

Best pattern ever for mild rain followed by cold followed by mild rain. There is pattern discussion and then pattern recognition

35-40 degree drop in 24 hours around DC 36 at DCA and BWI and 38 IAD. Mega Front

23.7 my coldest midnight temp so far is 27 so that gets erased

Pretty big batch out by Charleston

Merry Christmas all the New York and New England weather nuts. 10 miles north of DC am I and did get snow flurries with post sunrise high of 34 around 11am and now 31.

Post sunrise high of 34 and now 31

Did not blast in with huge drop quickly but 30 degrees overall in 12 hours is Mega qualifying

Dropping 0.5 to 1.0* per minute

Dulles dropped 13 in an hour down to 42, Here it comes

Leesburg down 9 degrees in 20 minutes

We have to see snow, family and grog pics for it to be really Merry!

11:25 pm 56.3. Temp drop began 11:18pm

11pm Deluge 3”ph stuff. Heaviest of day and maybe year 59.1

No sorry. Hand written for special events. The Top 100

91 and 92 back to back and 91 flooded Assatesgue VA and killed all that great pine tree forest you could drive and hike thru.

I did from 1965-2011. We had it on display at one of the conferences.

Yes. I think this is my biggest. In Laurel then 62 to 32 in 3 hours. Lead in to epic 1996

This will be fun hourly and maybe intra hourly obs. 30-35 degree drop likely and I wonder how much of that is fast?

Every post I make is not directed at you nor requesting a response from you. You ego needs reigning in. In this particular case I was referencing the myriad of forecasters here who have come and mostly gone who always go for the big one. David is but one and he and I go back to the very beginning of internet weather. We have met and have some same friends. He is The Best discusser of weather and what it takes to get a significant mid Atlantic snowstorm that I have encountered. His maps are interesting and easy to read and he is concise . He is not as good at predicting if one is going to occur.

Heard all these excuses before about pacific did not cooperate and got the upper air right but surface did not cooperate....not cooperate.....not cooperate... DC area does not cooperate well in general. It should be a basis for a forecaster around here. Storms which have not even reached the west coast yet should Nevet be a basis for a profoundly cold/snowy forecast for DC 7-10 days down the road