Carvers Gap

The 12 GEPS is still just ridiculously cold. The Euro Weeklies move to a more La Nina cold setup from Jan 20-30...cold stretching from Montana to TN. I am still not sure anything is fouled right now. Still looks cold, just not extreme. EPO is up and down for the next several weeks. PNA looks like the base. My guess is that the base of that trough gets attacked several times per the GFS. Again, the good thing about the GFS winning the battle with the cutter....it might be right with what is after. 12z was a good run. Good signal for cold and light/moderate event before the pattern breaks after the 20th.

Just looking at the long range. I believe we hang onto this pattern to the 20th. Some modeling suggests through the 25th. You can see at the very end of ensembles the trough with an extension to the northwest(GFS especially). That extension is the first sign of a retrogression of the trough into the Mountain West. I think we see back and forth cold/warm between the 20th and 28th...then we break for warm for an undetermined amount of time. My guess is that most of February is warm with intermittent cold shots. Then, I think March is likely cold. January was the wild card month. Looks like we are back on schedule after January. Something to watch, I have seen some pretty bad sever season analogs popping up recently for late March into April. I can't name which ones off the top of my head - maybe that 1960s analog a few pages back. For a big storm, there is a window from maybe Jan 16th to Jan 25 as the trough backs West. That puts the trough in a good spot for a Miller A/Inland runner. Hopefully, we can time a piece of energy as it retreats. Cosgrove things winter comes back after the late Jan lull. I am not so sure. However, the Euro Weeklies (control) shows only a brief relaxation to warmth, and then the trough back eastward. That control can sometimes sniff out problems with the ensemble. That Mountain West trough has been kicked back and kicked back. I have February as really warm. I feel much less confident today that we see an extended snow pattern. I would say most of you feel the same. However, I am taught this lesson over and over. When you see stuff in the d10-15, sometimes it disappears around d10. Then it comes back. Also, more times than not the depth of the trough is over modeled and comes back north. We WANT systems to our south on modeling right now IMHO. I think we get 2-3 systems before this is all said and done. Don't be surprised if severe cold shows back up on modeling. The GEPS has it.

To me modeling looks like it is replacing the Arctic look w/ normal January cold and normal STJ activity. Just my opinion, but I can't complain. I bet we hookup with something before this is all said and done.

That is the exact setup you mentioned the other day... look at the downslope in the upper valley and the cold banked against the Plateau. These are super sneak for places like Knoxville.

So, the GFS found this weekend's cutter when no other model even remotely had that solution. Now, take a look at what it does at 12z. Honestly, I have been watching football and enjoying the cooler weather. I do like the storm for the 10-11th timeframe to be something at least for the southern portions of the forum area. If you live in Chattanooga or Birmingham or Oxford, or even Memphis...worth watching at least from a distance.

Maybe I am in the minority, but I don't see much has changed. Just glancing at ensembles, they still look very cold. The GEPS has days that are 25-30 BN. The 6z GFS has the winter storm after the rain/ice situation this weekend. Are they as cold as they were 4-5 days ago? No. But...that kind of cold doesn't allow for much snow at all. In order to get snow, the cold has to relent at some level. The pattern looks good to roughly the 20th or even beyond. Ensembles are the way to go.

I was driving into the foothills outside of JC, and saw plenty of snow showers in the mountains. Looks like areas above 4,000' had snow on the ground.

Phased systems are what we should be seeing w/ the NAO lit. It slows everything down, and lets the northern and southern streams connect. At this range, I look more for pieces of the puzzle than actual details. Details are going to change, but those pieces are what we want.

The good thing about the past two runs of the GFS (12z and 18z) is that model is phasing the heck out of every system after d8. Another one after the one I just posted.

The northern vortex somehow separated like the inside of a cinnamon roll...and cut into the lakes while the rest phases. That is how close that was to being very big. That would have been a slp further west if it phased. New is left.

Just looking at 500 for the 18z GFS and the d8-10 system...there was a phase, it was just kind of wonky which at this range is top be expected. But we take a phase at 500.

The other thing, that SLP is still going to climb a bunch in latitude even when it misses.

The 18z GFS was a good run. At this range, they all aren't going to connect. The northern stream tracked through the GLs. A low in the Lakes is not going to score. Still, that was very close. We take that at this range. I just want to see the players on the field. All of the pieces were there, they just didn't time it up.

Popped a lee side low as well. The last two runs have been tempted to take that energy around the corner. Hand off of energy for sure. But yes, jog south on that run. Good to see you posting, Tellico!

The good thing about the AIFS solution is that is very similar(almost exact) to the GFS at 12z as well. This will change some at this range...just shows the potential.

12z Euro AIFS Miller A...heads to Hatteras right after this. Euro Weeklies ensemble. Euro Weeklies control...

Last post for a bit....looks like the 12z GFS just wants to phase everything. Interesting run.

The 12z CMC looks like it is also going to phase slightly west(or a lot more west?).

I should clarify...the Jan 6 system trended north, waaaay south, trended north and west, and then locked in.

The 12z has a phased system between d8-10. With the way this Jan 6 system has trended north and west....that is right where we want it at this range. Let's see if that holds on modeling. Been kind of off-and-on for a few days, but that is a boomer.

That is the one if it stays on modeling.

Looks like a weak phase at 500....

The 12z GFS going to try to phase just after 192?

I remember that one. We had downslope on the west slopes of the Apps. It banked the cold up against the Plateau. E TN, especially points NE of Knoxville and on the Plateau need to keep an eye out for sure. The 12z ICON posed that risk for sure.

Pretty rare to see LR, 16 day modeling go end-to-end with cold and chances for storms on globals. We have that on the GFS, Euro AIFS 6z, and the CMC. I am not sure global actually can even see the end of the pattern yet. I think we are good for about three weeks of cold, then IDK. We might steal one more week of seasonal before a warm-up. The Euro weeklies control is just one cold shot after another(for 46 days) as is the control for the GEFS ext. Their ensembles, though, tip the trough back West after Jan 20 and send temporary shots of cold SE. Either option wouldn't surprise me. The trough to the Mountain West seems probably...if anything because we will due a break. Morning thoughts: 1. Jan 6 looks baked in the cake. Possible front end ice, and then rain. Time of day will be crucial to getting precip right, and if the storm moves rapidly enough to trap existing cold in the valleys. 2. What happens after that? This is a no holds barred pattern. I don't think modeling even remotely have details correct after the 6th. This has the chance to be a prolonged cold shot. For the Jan 6 system, we have seen runs take cutters to Michigan and slide a low to Tallahassee. It looks like deterministic models finally have the cone narrowed down. At range, those wild deterministic runs remind us that (at range) ensembles are the way to go. Cold looks very likely, and maybe extreme at times. I liked 2018 as an analog for my winter forecast ideas(one of only two analogs). I still like it, but I do think we see more snow(maybe much more snow) than that year. We will see. Why? December is just not a great month climo wise IMBY. Yes, recently it has snowed more in December...but not really a ton prior to 2009 in my lifetime (locations at elevation are a different story). January can feature a more active pattern than December as December is exiting our driest time of the year. 3. Best snow mechanisms in order of likelihood seen on modeling the past few days....embedded northern stream energy (clippers for lack of a better word), anafront, and sliders. Could we see a Miller A? Possibly, but the 500 pattern makes it tough right now. As the trough backs into the west between the 15th and 25th...that might be our best shot or an inland runner. I do think we see an anafront snow before this is all said and done. I also think a mid-south slider is probable given the pattern, the deep cold, and history. Could is snow in Florida? Maybe. However, I suspect models are overcooking the cold in most(not all cases). That means the pattern probably adjusts northward some. If the pattern flattens out some, then multi-day overrunning is possible. 4. 1985 and 1977. Those have been kicked around a lot. Honestly, they were probably best left on the shelf with their numbers retired. However, there are elements of those years found in upcoming modeling. I find that pretty remarkable. Both of those years featured wild weather. And it is good to remember that really cold air can take minimal precip and cause systems to over-perform. So even the slightest precip on a map could yield decent results. I hope when this is all said and done that we are looking at a new, modern benchmark month for winter. Happy New Year!!!