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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Pretty strong warm signal for mid-December with that CPC forecast for the AO...the MA forum has been discussing it today. So, I went and looked for myself. If that verifies...going to be some very warm air east of the Rockies somewhere. But hey, maybe this is our year to buck the indices. We will see. My guess is the SSW situation is triggering some crazy stuff at high latitudes. Everything(Modeling, indices, etc) went pretty wonky during the last two events. Not sure this one leads to a split...but it might as the PV looks fairly elongated on the 12z Euro d10 map at 10mb. I think we have a good window during that first week of December. Last year, basically same deal occurred. Great window and the models flipped almost concurrently to a less than favorable pattern towards the end of December. Only good thing about that...I don't think lightning will strike twice in the same place. Really don't want to see the AO go that positive...that would be a long term problem I think. I think Bob Chill in the MA forum compared it to an AK vortex. Don't want to see a big +AO or an AK vortex as the break down very slow many times. Again, a warm December is very plausible given the cold pattern that preceded it and that it is a Nino-ish ENSO set-up. Fingers crossed for Jan/Feb 2020 as last year it just went warm and never looked back. Hopefully, many of the models are on "mayhem mode" as this SSW and seasonal transition is probably making a mess of things. That said, we can definitely see into early winter now on modeling...not sure I am a fan at this point of what I see for early winter. But it is still early.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
GFS(12z and 18z) and CMC(12z) are both hinting at a fairly strong upslope event beginning late Thanksgiving Weekend. 12z Euro is not too far off from that...looks a bit too wound up. Strong NW flow coming in nearly perpendicular to the mountains.- 1,666 replies
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UTM at UK..Flipping channels and saw a driving drizzle(no idea what else to call it). Winds are gusting to 17mph. Temps is 44. WC is 37 per TV(seems like that would be colder). Evidently people are trying to get int the bathrooms just to warm-up. Looks cold, man.
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Looks like a pretty good squall line around Knoxville. Any reports from folks under that line?
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The Tennessee subform rocking impressive metaphors this week. Pretty sure I will be laughing about Jeff's quote (about adventure books and the GFS) for a long time. And I will also be using the phrase in that tweet again - 99 cent bin superstorm.
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That is pretty craptastic, but glad you are back! Hopefully this week will be smoother. I had a similar week about two weeks ago.
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Man, missed you during the latter half of this week. Been too quiet on the forum. Hate to hear that about the deer. That is scary stuff. There are loads in my neighborhood. Around hunting season in my area, they frequent road areas and back yards. And yeah, it would be hard not just to put it in the ditch if one smashed into the car...good job on her part to keep it in the road.
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Awesome. LOL. That run looked like it was running for office...promised something to every region of the country, and no way it is going to deliver. 12z GEFS looked steady though.
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Just put in an order for gopher wood to Amazon.
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Pretty impressive cold to begin November at TRI. We are -7.2F through November 16th. Not a single day AN so far. That will change, but still impressive.
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Man...if the Weeklies had run from the 0z run....
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Don't sweat the small stuff. Temp anomalies on the Euro Weeklies have had a severe warm bias for many months. The bias begins after week 2. They must have monkeyed with the algorithm. The 500 pattern doesn't look to bad to me until mid-late December which is after d28. The Weeklies have been pretty awful past week 3. Also, the Euro run from this morning was pretty awful. The Weeklies are only as good as the run they are derived from.All of that said...I do have a warm December as part of my ideas, so I probably can't complains. I don't think a warm December is a slam dunk though. The GEFS has done a much better job of recognizing cold patterns. It has flipped back cold for the past two runs. The EPS also has erroneously tried to warm the current pattern several times. I don't trust the GEFS, but the EPS has been equally bad if not worse. It seems like some sort of BN heights are going to establish for a short amount of time in the Southwest(a few days...maybe even a week or two). That said, the Euro also has a bias of not being able to get energy out of the SW - like ever. It just sits there. Need to keep an eye on the Greenland Block. If it forms...it won't go as quickly as forecasted IMHO. That said, HM has been banging the drum the Aleutian low is going to be a driver here. I think that has potential to be the most important driver early during winter. Keep in mind that the Weeklies completely missed the November cold pattern...almost a total whiff. The EPS has been playing catch-up for about four weeks. The only danger is that the GEFS is always cold....makes it tough to find the pattern change to warm if it occurs. My money for now is on the GEFS, though I never really discount the Euro - but it has really struggled to see much cold at all in NA.
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John, I am always thankful for your records. 2014 missed my back yard. I had to go check the obs thread. LOL. Fortunately I posted there. Missed on Sandy as well. Good find on the 93 obs. That turned out to be a cold winter as you have noted. That is the winter that I always forget was cold. I have been asking folks in this area if they remember getting an inch or more is snow this early...it has been a long time - I think. I was was living at Papermill in Knoxville in ‘93...so I have no idea if Kingsport cashed in. Seems like lately we have been getting more than the airport...For many years, Kingsport was always much lower than the surrounding county, partly due to the river I am sure and partly due to industry. These days we seem to be on par. Now, SW VA where @1234snow lives and @Daniel Boone and @BlunderStorm...that is a money pot up there. Carter’s Valley northward is just gold. I spent the winter of 85 in Carter’s Valley. Twenty something below zero and snow on the ground for months. I can remember sitting in Saturday snowday make-up school watching it snow!!!
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
When I lived in JC off of Indian Ridge(might have mistakenly said Sunset earlier) up on the hill...it was crazy how much snow we would get. That little ridge(as you are going towards the hospital) on the right just after you cross Indian Ridge Rd gets some nice little upslope. It has a blue water tower on top. I think I enjoyed upslope events there about as much as any other event anywhere, because it just kept snowing. We get it here in Kingsport with enhanced flow if the system is to our south and east. I could see the really light bands on Radarscope, so figured someone was seeing something. When those NW flow bands set up perpendicular to the mountains...it is pretty fun. It takes about an hour for us to get to Roan Mountain State Park. I have driven from no snow in Kingsport to a foot there due to an upslope event. I am always on Zillow looking for a good deal up there...never enough spare change sitting around. Plus, everyone in my family would know why I wanted a house there...just to see snow. Fortunately, the rest of my crew loves snow as well!!! -
TRI has set a record low this morning. The old record was 19 which was set in 1986. Currently, TRI sits at 15. Tomorrow's record is 16 which was also set during 1986. TRI has a forecast low of 17 for tomorrow.
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Found this on twitter since @griteater liked it. Few places in the world are as pretty as our mountains when it snows. I have seen snow on peaks that rise to 13K', but our mountains have something extra. When the ceiling drops and the snow starts falling...just a rare kind beauty not found in many places. I know the neighborhood in the Tweet below. Would like to own a home their one day! Not to far from...Carvers Gap. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
@1234snow, what did you finally end up with? Looks like you were also under that band? -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Jed, we must be under that same band on the back side. Just looking at the radar...looks like that band set up from Morristown into western Sullivan Co. I have about 1" of snow in my front yard with nothing under the big tree. On raised surfaces in the back yard...1.25" roughly. IMBY...some places have two inches. So, sitting at 1.5" roughly with lots of variation and still working through this last band of snow. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks I have about 1" of snow on the grass and raised surfaces - very little under trees that still have their leaves. Not bad at all as someone noted...for November 12th. Viva 1954! LOL. Seriously though...eerie. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
........NE TN has been placed in the WWA area........ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 1032 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY... .A strong cold front will push through overnight, with rain showers mixing with and changing to snow before tapering off and ending Tuesday. Some light snow accumulations can be expected, especially across the higher elevations. TNZ015>017-042-044-046-121200- /O.EXA.KMRX.WW.Y.0006.191112T0900Z-191112T1700Z/ Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington- Northwest Carter- Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Greeneville, Johnson City, and Elizabethton 1032 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Tennessee. * WHEN...From 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
That'll help quite a bit. We used to live off Sunset just near State of Franklin several years ago while my wife was finishing up med school. We used to rack the heck up on northwest flow events over there. Lived right on top of a hill. Plus, if you just need to see snow...you can always drive to Boone and see it while they are blowing snow. LOL. JC is a great location. I miss seeing the mountains over there every day. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Pretty much the Holy Grail of high pressures for November. That is strong even during winter. The 0z Euro had a high at 9h that was 1052. The 12z that just ran has 6z at 1049. Both of those forecast readings are on the east end of Yellowstone National Park near the Beartooths. The 12z Euro does appear to slightly back off its totals over E TN. Looks like more of 1-2" of snow for E TN vs 2-4". -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
12z suite looks pretty good so far for E TN...especially the foothills, Plateau, SW VA, and portions of NE TN. That said, many of the models(global and short range) have upped their totals slightly. Never want the trend to be going down at this range. Not sure what is causing the system to max out over E TN, but several models depict a pretty decent precip max over the eastern valley with this. The questions is whether the cold is going to move as quickly as modeled. The big 1050+ high argues for that. However, as I stated above...the Plateau can do strange things with systems like this. It may give some good orographic lift or it may hold up the cold. Either way, still an interesting early season system on tap. I would not be surprised if some valley locations received and inch or two of snow. Seems weird to state that as climatology really frowns upon snow this early...but it can happen and that high is no joke. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good to see you on here again. These Arctic fronts as they interact with the Plateau add a certain degree of difficulty. Often, the cold takes it time draining in from the Plateau...but sometimes it does not. The big high out West has me with one eye over my shoulder. Either way, tracking in early November is all bonus!