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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    As @tnweathernutnoted earlier today, the cold behind that front is bitterly cold. Seeing some lower single digits after 240 - so take with a huge grain but shows the potential. That air mass, if it verified, would be the coldest of the season. Still a long ways to go, but interesting to look at. And the trough still seems to be on time. We knew we had trouble earlier this winter when fronts would get pushed back...As of now still Feb 5th.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Switching gears back to this weekend. I still think NE TN needs to keep an eye on the wx. The 18z GFS has a strong coastal low with decent snow in the mountains. It would not take much of a westward shift and a slightly stronger storm to change the narrative at TRI over the weekend. The open wave or weak slp has trended a good bit stronger at 18z. Just toggle back a few runs and look at how much stronger it is. Here is the zoomed in version:
  3. Carvers Gap
    One thing to note, troughs on Weeklies are notoriously not deep enough. They have correct deeper most of the time this winter. We just didn't have many troughs until mid Jan.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Ah sorry, I see...5 day increments on those gifs. One day, @Holston_River_Rambler, you will need bifocals like me and understand. The single day increments actually show the frontal passages. Everything on the gif is about five days late and washes out the strength of the troughs and fronts. But overall same idea. Here is Feb 6 at 850. And thanks for the gifs!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Man, that looks way different than what I am looking at.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Nah, man. The run didn't actually look that bad. Temps are normal(edit...excluding first four days roughly of Feb...I was looking at daily maps which average out about normal) and precip AN for February. Now, that doesn't mean much as they have been terrible...but seriously, not a bad run.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, those weeklies don't look like the WxBell version of March. LOL. Heights are normal to below for 500 anomalies on it, excluding the first four days. February looks about right.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Digging through the Euro Weeklies. They are a bit washed out IMHO. I don't use 2m temps verbatim when looking at them, because they have a notorious warm bias. So, a little trick I have learned is to look at 850s. One can see fronts pass through with those. Keeping that in mind...First trough rolls through around the 5th. Warmth builds for a day or two and the next cold front rolls through. About every week we get a shot of cold for 2-3 days followed by an equivalent warm-up. Surface temps are basically average out as normal from Feb 5-28. Looks to me like the cold builds in the front range and presses eastward. That looks explains why modeling is bouncing around with the SER - i.e. Is the SER real, and if so, how strong after the 10th? Basically troughs plow through, the SER bounces back to varying degrees, and then the cold builds into the region again. Looks to me like cold is about to be injected periodically into an active STJ pattern. It is a progressive pattern that wiill depend on timing, but w AN precip/normal temps. Of note, Alaska is AN or normal after Feb 10th until almost the end of the run. Basically, it looks like February climatology. Might even have some sever wx mid-month. Not a sever guy, but if we go phase 6 during February and that gets hit by well BN temps...look out. One final note, just glancing at MJO....Overall, my guess would by moderate MJO phase 1and 2 and 3 during the first 10 days of Feb. Then it progress through low amplitude 4-5, a higher amplitude 6 from Feb 10-20. Then, it looks like 7, 1, and 2 fire during the last ten days. Convection west of the dateline is just going to be a pain the rest of the winter. The good thing is changing wavelengths will help. Honestly, it looks very much like the d10-15 of the EPS from this morning continued throughout the run. Really is a shame it didn't run from the afternoon run which had a stronger -NAO and centered the LR trough in the continent's mid section. There you go... a much too long diagnosis of a model run that is already behind its 12z run.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro: Trough still goes in the East. Has energy riding the Arctic front like the GFS. Might be a 3-6 hours slower, but with a stronger trough that digs more(that is why it is slower). What it is doing over Alaska looks new and might even be a random hiccup. The Euro does weird stuff sometimes that turns out to be true. So, I have learned over time not to discount oddities. However, unless it shows me something on subsequent runs...going to file that as a hiccup. And before folks think...oh no, here we go again. The hiccup is not really a problem by 10. That is a super, super cold look. Virtually all of NA is in the trough, and it really doesn't roll the western ridge forward like 0z. So, good run...but wonky as all get out.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is much different(from its previous run) for the third straight run. This time it has BN heights in AK and has dampened the eastern Pacific trough. Not really a break in continuity, but more like very little continuity. Trough is still there, but the AK BN heights are going to create problems. Can't find another model doing that right now, even its previous run. Model mayhem continues.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. The Methodist retreat center near Max Patch(TN/NC just north of the GSMNP boundary) just posted a video of heavy snow falling. Just guessing, but I bet they are about 3,500-4,000'.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The CMC at 12z is a great example of how the angle of that front on the leading edge of the trough makes a big difference. It doesn't dig quite as much and everything slides OTS. Ironically, we probably need a little of the Euro "digging into the Southwest" mojo if we want to see an overrunning event.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Looks an awful lot like what led to the November pattern....this entire step-down the past few weeks feels like the October(January style) that led to November. The extreme stuff broke shortly after mid month, then a cool down, warmed up, then another cool down, etc. Also, the changing wave lengths likely won't hurt either. We will see where it heads, but the similarities are interesting.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is cold up there. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. The 500 pattern as @tnweathernut mentions would support that type of cold. However, we had that forecast I think(at LR) last week and Canada ended up with +30 to +40 departures from normal. LOL. The good thing about this run is the actual initial front is inside of d10. Will come into focus here over the next 3-4 days.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I think the 12z GFS at least shows why we have been watching this timeframe for seemingly weeks. Get cold air into the pattern with an STJ and the 12z GFS is a potential option. There was an additional wave which I think makes four along that front which hugs the coast. Long way out there, but something to track for now.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS still on time with a strong cold front and ensuing trough around Feb 5th. Something to watch, as noted in the previous thread, is whether energy will make a run along the incoming front. In this case there were 3 waves of precip long the front. First was rain and the last was snow as the Arctic front passes. We have scored on those during the past decade, usually 2-4" type snow events. Obviously at this range, a lot can and will change. Things to monitor will be whether the cold actually modifies as the event nears or will it maintain that strong frontal passage. Another thing to watch will be the angle of the front. If it sort of gets a positive lean to it, that raised the likelihood of something riding the front, especially if the tail is slow to move along in Texas. In other words, we want it to drape across the SE as a frontal boundary. Will be interesting to see where the rest of the run leads. As for this weekend's look, still not sure I buy the suppressed look but certainly looks that way as of right now. The energy that digs in behind it would likely induce snow shower activity.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Mostly rain here today. Had a few flakes mix in around 8:00AM. @PowellVolz shared in the discussion thread that Ober Gatlinburg is seeing some mixing there and also shared a great radar look @4K' where the changeover appears to be occurring. Phrase for the day: Cold rain.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the new thread, @John1122. Looks like this is pinned to the top, so I will place afternoon ensemble discussion here.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Cold rain! Great share. Was/is definitely a marginal event.
  20. Carvers Gap
    ***Heads-Up**** Looks like John has the Feb/March thread up and running. So, I suggest we keep discussion for this week's marginal events in this thread(Dec/Jan) and then transition February discussion over to the the thread he created. Looks like it is pinned to the top now.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Cool. Had a few wet flakes hit the windshield this AM, especially as we climbed away from the river. Rates helped the mix. Nothing major as it was still mostly rain. OG has done fairly well with these elevation events lately, well compared to the rest of us.
  22. Carvers Gap
    During the social media era, the -NAO has been pretty lousy. We have had a few winters with it during the past decade that have been stellar for sure. I do think you make a good point that it will likely return. Pretty much knew after that long stretch this past year that it was going positive this winter. Problem with a -NAO during summer is that it has the opposite effect - hot.
  23. Carvers Gap
    We have spoken about the QBO some. Conversation has been spirited but constructive. We are now in the easterly QBO descending phase(reference NASA) of the QBO which is also called negative. As of January 26th, 30mb is roughly neutral, 40mb is negative, and 50mb is negative. Below is the QBO chart developed by Barnston, Livezey, and Halpert. D'Aleo shares a similar graphic from time to time. He did again today and it is worth a share. We are almost(if not there now) in the upper left hand quadrant of the graphic(East QBO and solar min). When you look at both the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS, you see something very similar in modeling beginning about hour 330. That tells me that the QBO is likely having more influence. Notice the east based -NAO and the positive in the GOA. Not a perfect fit, but pretty close. Anyway, there is precedent within QBO understanding for the upcoming pattern. It will be interesting if blocking continues to be shown at higher latitudes.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Which tells me that the lack of an Atlantic block is a problem. Speaking for MBY in NE TN... 09-10 was a good winter and had a -NAO. 11-12 wasn't terrible as we had thunder snow here. 13-14 was a good winter and had a -NAO. 14-15 was a good winter and had a +NAO but I wonder if that was still a winter with good blocking in the AO region? Seems like it had a -QBO as well. I don't think the NAO is a "cure" for our winters as the Pacific is notable and important driver. However, I can make a really good case that the lack of Atlantic blocking at this latitude has been a problem for several straight winters. I think it is a problem especially for those on the eastern side of the forum as NW flow tends to modify by the time it gets here. Need a block to actually bottle-up that cold air and keep it from sliding out. All of that said, if we want a good February one path towards that is to see a -NAO develop and block the cold shot next week from leaving. If it slides out, it is a textbook example of why some Atlantic blocking(even if weak) is important. Without something to slow down system 50/50 low or a block, the cold slides out and is very dependent on timing as things are humming along. The HB block has at least formed confluence near our area.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Also, I like the idea that a wave or area of slp could potentially run along the leading edge of a trough like the one modeled to come through next week. Whether that happens remains to be seen. The Euro has it at d10 which is a dubious range to refer to actual specifics I admit, but it does provide an example of what "could" happen. That looks has also been on the GFS a few times which is dubious at most time ranges. LOL. Assuming next week's trough is legit, the way we score would likely be with energy on the front end, clippers, or energy as the SER slips underneath it. Again, something to watch on ensembles is how much cold air will be available. Looks like the trough will have moderate staying power of 4-5 days. Could be less or more depending on your model of choice. On some modeling the trough will lift out after one shot. On others it gets a second shot of cold air that digs it further. That second shot will likely decide how long the ridge holds as it could dig more into the West. Right now(we have seen that change before), the cold looks substantial which means the cold could press into the SE despite the SER(reference to JB and just prior knowledge for that nugget) late in the run. So now we wait, track some marginal events, and hang out on the forum. Model mayhem is well underway. Don't like what you see? Just wait a run or two.
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