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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    ...And having anything to track right now seems like a minor miracle given the trends for this winter! LOL.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC manages to show some frozen precip over the forum area albeit during a short time frame. I just don't think modeling has this handled quite yet. Again, this is the time frame that we have noted has been poorly modeled due to cut-off lows and such sitting and spinning for infinity. Actual verification likely means that we have two cold fronts rolling through between the 10th and 20th. IMHO, that precip next week is coming north of where it is. It has done this(northern creep) all winter. Cold HP heights are verifying slightly lower(or much lower) than originally modeled. This allows the system to creep northward. Now, during some winters the highs and attack the HP. The other trend is to hold less energy back. Right now, pretty much everyone is in the game in the forum area from northern Alabama to TRI. North Carolina isn't looking to bad either. Verbatim, this is suppressed below I40...but still quite a bit of time for this to move around. PLUS...still not totally convinced that whatever happened last night is totally resolved. Seems like those types of mishaps can take a few runs to get the kinks out. 12z runs might be fine, but when we have seen data ingest problems before and things were wonky for a few days. I actually though modeling looked a bit different this AM. Sort of holding my thoughts on that until we know 12z is clear of any problems. It was odd to see the storm late next week vanish at 0z. Looks like it is back at 12z, but a bit weaker.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the timeframe later next week still looks good despite the storm looking suppressed and strung out right now. Notice the 12z GFS is not holding all of that energy in the Southwest. That is a truck load of cold coming down the Plains and a lot of precip coming out of Texas. Have to think that those two have a chance to collide somewhere in the South.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Wonder if the data problem is fixed and if it caused any model issues?
  5. Carvers Gap
    Was able to finally able to get them. They have flipped through the first week of March at 2m. Pretty remarkable flip compared to Monday at this short of a range. Still digging through them. Here is the 20th-27th. If they are bouncing around like this, highly doubt they are done bouncing(for good and for bad). The first 30 days of the run are now normal for temps where they were pretty warm.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Are those the Weeklies?...WxBell has not loaded. When they are this late, sometimes they don't load. How does the run look after d20?
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is banging the drum for a good looking pattern - both the control and ensemble. Sure looks like phase 8. No idea how long it lasts, but we will take it if it verifies. Cold look. The control has a fairly strong cold shot with an isolated area of 30 degree BN departures over SW VA at the end of the run. Considering that the EPS/Euro has missed a couple of cold fronts between the 10-20th at range, makes me wonder if the cold is underdone on the ensemble(control is plenty cold!).
  8. Carvers Gap
    Any hunch as to which has the best HP placement? Seems like model biases are backwards on this in terms of holding energy back as well.
  9. Carvers Gap
    That is a 1057 high parked over northwest Colorado.
  10. Carvers Gap
    This is the surface MSLP anomaly...
  11. Carvers Gap
    That is a great set-up. No idea if it stays that suppressed. It might end up in Dayton, but that is a monster high.
  12. Carvers Gap
    1046 high parked over the top of an active STJ...yep, we take.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has a gradient winter storm in the South at 168. Yeah, that looks good.
  14. Carvers Gap
    No idea if this verifies...but a fun toggle is between 240 and anything after 300(NA view) of the 12z GEFS on Pivotal. Both the EPS and GEFS have a pretty potent setup beginning to evolve right after d10. Not going to give the usual caveats...everyone should know by now. That said, the pattern that is showing up is ridging over the top with cold underneath. That set-up will work even late in winter given that the event is at night and not middle of the day.
  15. Carvers Gap
    It is a bit of a hunch, but I think something runs that boundary around 132. Now, it could easily go to Ohio. IF that energy being stalled in the Southwest is incorrect, that energy could come out entirely or in pieces along a strong cold front boundary. Not a given, but something to think about. At worst, that energy comes out about 2-3 days later and heads for the EC.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And right now that is sort of cold chasing rain around 132, but it is also big, cold highs which are not interacting with a very active weather pattern. It has been very rare this winter for the active precip pattern to not interact with the cold. Our problem has been that interaction has taken place well to our north...but plenty of interaction and snow has resulted there. So color me a bit skeptical to see a big, 1045+ high press into the East and then see the active precip pattern not at least attack that cold. Again, that has been going on all winter, but to our north. My overall point, give me a big high like that and an active STJ...and let's see what happens.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Part of that is a low stuck in the Southwest that is spinning counter clockwise and pulling that precip shield from El Paso. It can happen, but is very counterintuitive to me. In general those type of lows have not been verifying in that manner. It is definitely common for energy to come out in pieces or even the entire system.... In my experience, when systems seem to buck the flow, it is more in the Colorado front range in the spring. Sometimes lows can pull precip northeast into Colorado. The CMC has a more "acceptable"(not that the atmosphere asks me for approval....LOL) evolution of that pattern. It ejects part of that system out, and the rest sort of sinks into Mexico and comes out as a storm later. The interesting thing is that those systems in the Southwest usually come out. JB used to call them "pay me now or pay me later" systems and sometimes calls them "money in the bank" systems. I hesitate to say something can't happen as the weather can produce some wild phenomena that are within the bounds of physics. But yeah, just looks wonky. That is the second time I have seen that on modeling this winter. One run had precip move from E TX into New Mexico. So, really I am not sure that I trust that run from that point onward. The run wasn't terrible...but that storm that comes out of west TX is another one of those storms that causes the rest of the pattern to pivot around it. If that set-up is modeled incorrectly, rest of the run is likely off...and it might be off anyway knowing the GFS. To me, that looks like a real chance at a winter storm with cold pressing over the top and energy which is likely going to come out. The GFS almost has a storm at 144 and then backs off. The CMC is a realistic look and rain. Interesting timeframe and sitting around 132 with those monster highs. The BIG problem is if it comes out as a gradient system and we are on the Southside of the gradient....flooding potential would be huge. So, we really need those 1045+ highs to verify both for snow chances and just to reduce rainfall amounts. They will at least squash the boundary enough - maybe.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Probably spoke too soon regarding problems in the Southwest. 12z GFS evolution in west TX does not look realistic beginning at 132. I could be wrong, but I bet that kicks out in reality.
  19. Carvers Gap
    MJO this morning looks very weak and trending away from the warm phases that we have been in for nearly two months - maybe a little longer. Could easily be a head fake. JB mentioned changing wavelengths this AM, but to be clear we have been on this for a couple of weeks...the wavelengths changing up are pretty much wrecking havoc on modeling. I have said that this looks like November vs Phase 6 of the MJO as the modeling seems to be delivering every (5-6 days) substantial troughs moving into the East and warm-ups in between. Again, this looks very much like what happened during the November cold snap. Crazy warmth but when the wavelengths changed in November, the door was opened for colder air to enter the pattern. When the wavelengths lengthened out during winter...warmth returned. There are some pretty strong cold shots on most modeling - operationals and ensembles. I hesitate to call it a pattern change as that phrase has worn thin. We have had pattern changes. I mean we have had the pattern that lasted from early December to mid-January. Then we had the HB block w limited cold for the second half of January. I think February is really not a well defined pattern at this point. Had the big trough last week. Now we have had the big ridge. Going to get another big trough followed by another big ridge. Seems like a ridge in the East pattern, but with a trough that loads and pushes it out...type of pattern. What is on LR modeling is different. Heights build over the top and trap cold underneath. No idea if this happens, but I am pulling for the PV to get dislodged and trapped in NA as ridging builds over the top. For those of you who are beginning outdoor sports, that is not what you want. For those wanting some early spring snow...that is on my wishlist. The EMON MJO is out today and it is null. If the MJO is not driving the bus, I bet the -EPO takes over but w several storms that cut under the big eastern Pac ridge. Again, modeling looks quite good today. The great thing right now is that man of the changes are now well within 10 days as evidenced by the increasingly colder Euro operational and EPS. The 10 day temps anomaly for west TN is now BN on the Euro operational, normal for middle TN, and slightly AN for E TN. The 0z EPS 10d ensemble centered for d5-15 is normal with plenty of cold to balance the AN temp interludes. Getting to the point now that from a tracking standpoint, we are going to pretty much have to eyeball most systems after the 18th. Lastly, the cutoffs being handled better in the West are allowing more cold to penetrate eastward. We thought that was fish...turns out it was.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Several big hitters in the ensembles. The overnight run of the EPS was again fairly chilly as was the operational. There are a lot of BN temps beginning with tomorrow, especially compared to the last two months. Will be interesting to see the MJO today.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I hear that. The HB block might be the ticket. Just need to get some cold into that pattern. The second half of January had some great tracks, but no cold.
  22. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Man, than incoming front looks like a an animal at the end of that slide!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Great share. By far, one of my favorite weather occurrences that happens in E TN. Low 70s in the foothills of the Smokies and mid 40s in the foothills of the Plateau. Until a few years ago, I had no idea this was an actual thing until we were trying to figure out how some areas were getting ice along the Plateau while it was like 50 in the foothills of the Smokies.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The EPS is actually more aggressive than the GEFS right now...maybe because it stays out of phase 6/7 of the MJO and is in the COD(false null) longer. But really, the general trend in modeling is towards a colder look and it has sped up some. Easily could be a mirage, but first cold shot is next 48 hours. Pattern looks like this past November vs Phase 6. I am hesitant to be too excited but this has not been a terrible month from a tracking standpoint. We have two event threads. Get a couple of more threads by the end of the month and Feb has done its job....just no way to make up for Dec/Jan being torch city. That said, starting to see that HB block show back up again. Also, if the EPS is correct, I bet that trough near the end of its run kicks right out with that set-up. Really hard not to like where modeling is heading...Yeah, it might be late, but some of those looks at 500 are pretty nice. Once this modeling worked-out the problems with those infinite loops of the Southwest trough...pattern had more cold in it.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Very good trends on modeling since yesterday.
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