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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Actually after reading through the MA forum...the EPS solution might be in doubt at this point. It has been pretty bad during the d10-15 range. The GEFS has had a bit of a hot hand. Need to watch the block over Greenland. If it develops...we might be in good shape. As Boone mentioned, the MJO might be causing some flip-flopping as well due to modeling trying to figure out how to handle the warm phases of the MJO while at the same time having to navigate early high-latitude blocking. Lastly, keep an eye on any weird, super-anomalous ridges over NA - especially the EC. They have been precursors to strat splits. I don't want one of those as they seem to have bad aim with cold air! LOL.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS buries the trough in the southwest. Might be real. Might not. That has been a trend on more than one model. Suffice it to say, the EPS has flipped in its d10-15. It may flip back, but that is a flip to a ridge in the East and a trough in the southwest. It backed up the overnight run, and dug in even more. Is it up to its old tricks? Not sure, but the GEFS has a similar look, just cooler in the SE. Not good trends, but still plenty of time to switch round.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Sorry...wasn't trying to correct you. It wasn't a response to yours, because I hadn't even read your previous post. I think your comments actually fit really well based on where the GEFS was previously. I was just trying to be humorous. My apologies that it read that way...it was just coincidence that my post seemed to correct yours. I often say, "Well, that was not a warm run!" Pretty much in that context. Just hyperbole.
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS is not warm...really at any point. As Bob Chill noted in the MA...really want to see this get into December. Great question, DB. Many of the wx models that we use were likely built post 1980. What would a truly blue northern winter look like on modeling? Probably a mess before and during. One area where the AI aspect of modeling has issues is with recognizing pattern changes. People catch those changes in modeling because they will see glitches in the LR modeling. It is what I actually look for. Hiccups can mean nothing or they can mean everything. Right now, the d10-15 ensemble runs are bouncing around in terms of putting the cold into the southwest or east or both. I suspect the high latitude blocking is wrecking havoc on consistency much like a big, cold high coming out of Canada would. Jeff said it earlier...not going to be an easy few months of professional or hobby forecasting.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The pattern reversal that occurred during the second week of October is still strongly in place. Yesterday, it was -19F BN at TRI and is a whopping -7.4F for the month through November 13th. The good thing, as John as noted often, is that there is a decent correlation between November wx patterns and winter wx patterns. We have yet to have a single day above normal at TRI for the month of November. We have had five double digit departure days BN. On November 12, the airport reported one of the of earlier 1" or more snowfalls on record(as John noted, there were some earlier than this week). Going to be interesting for the end of November as the GEFS and EPS definitely moved to end the current pattern. That is not surprising as the current pattern would have run about six weeks by that time. Nino climatology points towards warmer Decembers...so, we are basically trying to find a December that is one of the roughly 33% that are cold with this setup. This is the departure map for the month of November so far. This is the map for the last ten days...
  6. Carvers Gap
    LR modeling working on its best version of the flip flop last night. Will be interesting to see how quickly the -NAO can be knocked down. Traditionally, once in place, it is a fairly stubborn feature. That said, both the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS find a way to build a SER in the d10-15 range and place a trough out West. Not a torch by any means...but let's see if the trend continues at 12z.
  7. Carvers Gap
    John, I am always thankful for your records. 2014 missed my back yard. I had to go check the obs thread. LOL. Fortunately I posted there. Missed on Sandy as well. Good find on the 93 obs. That turned out to be a cold winter as you have noted. That is the winter that I always forget was cold. I have been asking folks in this area if they remember getting an inch or more is snow this early...it has been a long time - I think. I was was living at Papermill in Knoxville in ‘93...so I have no idea if Kingsport cashed in. Seems like lately we have been getting more than the airport...For many years, Kingsport was always much lower than the surrounding county, partly due to the river I am sure and partly due to industry. These days we seem to be on par. Now, SW VA where @1234snow lives and @Daniel Boone and @BlunderStorm...that is a money pot up there. Carter’s Valley northward is just gold. I spent the winter of 85 in Carter’s Valley. Twenty something below zero and snow on the ground for months. I can remember sitting in Saturday snowday make-up school watching it snow!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Jeff hit the high points of the 12z EPS run. Really nice run in terms of potential for cold.
  9. Carvers Gap
    When I lived in JC off of Indian Ridge(might have mistakenly said Sunset earlier) up on the hill...it was crazy how much snow we would get. That little ridge(as you are going towards the hospital) on the right just after you cross Indian Ridge Rd gets some nice little upslope. It has a blue water tower on top. I think I enjoyed upslope events there about as much as any other event anywhere, because it just kept snowing. We get it here in Kingsport with enhanced flow if the system is to our south and east. I could see the really light bands on Radarscope, so figured someone was seeing something. When those NW flow bands set up perpendicular to the mountains...it is pretty fun. It takes about an hour for us to get to Roan Mountain State Park. I have driven from no snow in Kingsport to a foot there due to an upslope event. I am always on Zillow looking for a good deal up there...never enough spare change sitting around. Plus, everyone in my family would know why I wanted a house there...just to see snow. Fortunately, the rest of my crew loves snow as well!!!
  10. Carvers Gap
    TRI has set a record low this morning. The old record was 19 which was set in 1986. Currently, TRI sits at 15. Tomorrow's record is 16 which was also set during 1986. TRI has a forecast low of 17 for tomorrow.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Takeaways from modeling this afternoon...-NAO is found on the three major global ensembles beginning mid-week next week. The JMA has moved to a cooler January and February...but it was wrong all winter last year. So buyer beware. If that -NAO sets up shop, it becomes the driver IMHO. Lots of good doors in terms of winter could open, especially with winter storms. Some modeling is depicting some weak interaction between the PNA and the potential Greenland block. Still need to be wary. The solutions yesterday, though not desirable, are a possibility. However, I like seeing the Greenland block showing up consistently across the board. While modeling is tremendously sketchy outside of three weeks...many operational models began hinting at the big highs that produced todays snows...weeks ago. So, there are some good signs out there in model land that might hint at an enduring block. HM has been talking about the Aleutian low really making its presence felt - if I am speaking HM language correctly. He is now alluding to December - early Feb as being cold. Shocker - that is mid-winter...but that is not as easy of a prediction as one might think given last year's outcome. Lastly, the MA forum was talking about how the winter Nino temp timeline might be moved up a bit. I guess that means that the moderation of temps over the next couple of weeks would be the December thaw often seen during Ninos, and that January would be cold versus actually trending colder as the month progresses. Hopefully, I gave credit where credit is due. Man, it feels like the middle of winter out there today. One of my kids said, "It's going to be 65 degrees colder this afternoon than it was to begin October." I cannot imagine where they would hear such comparisons. Now, if they start discussing 1954... Seriously though, these fall athletes have endured record high temps and today...snow. It has been a really interesting fall in hindsight.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Found this on twitter since @griteater liked it. Few places in the world are as pretty as our mountains when it snows. I have seen snow on peaks that rise to 13K', but our mountains have something extra. When the ceiling drops and the snow starts falling...just a rare kind beauty not found in many places. I know the neighborhood in the Tweet below. Would like to own a home their one day! Not to far from...Carvers Gap.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Just glancing through the most recent ensembles....the 6z GEFS has backed-off the mega ridge and has joined the -NAO club that doesn't connect to an eastern ridge. A -NAO is not a slam dunk for cold BTW. The reason a lot of us like it is because the storm track gets suppressed and confluence is more favorable for our forum area. Not sure it will supply enough cold for us to benefit from the potential block...but an interesting look. IMHO, still a lot of uncertainty for the last week of November. Some good signs...but not ready to pull the trigger yet on stating that I believe the elusive -NAO is going to pay a visit later this month and into early December. Looks like the coldest air is setting up in Asia. Need a mechanism to get it to this side of the planet.
  14. Carvers Gap
    @1234snow, what did you finally end up with? Looks like you were also under that band?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Jed, we must be under that same band on the back side. Just looking at the radar...looks like that band set up from Morristown into western Sullivan Co. I have about 1" of snow in my front yard with nothing under the big tree. On raised surfaces in the back yard...1.25" roughly. IMBY...some places have two inches. So, sitting at 1.5" roughly with lots of variation and still working through this last band of snow.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Looks I have about 1" of snow on the grass and raised surfaces - very little under trees that still have their leaves. Not bad at all as someone noted...for November 12th. Viva 1954! LOL. Seriously though...eerie.
  17. Carvers Gap
    It has a chance to be sort of a Modoki...the problem is the eastern equatorial Pacific has had some Nina-ish SSTs recently or at least have trended that way. I haven't looked this week. I do think that led to our dry and hot September and early October. Also, Typhoon Tip in the NE subform I think has talked about that the Pacific is anomalously warm over most of the basin...that is actually causing the temperature gradient to be weak. That means we really want El Nino patterns to have a sharp gradient to cool water which surround them. Right now, there is just little gradient. Due to this, the standard analog packages are not working very well.
  18. Carvers Gap
    ........NE TN has been placed in the WWA area........ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 1032 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY... .A strong cold front will push through overnight, with rain showers mixing with and changing to snow before tapering off and ending Tuesday. Some light snow accumulations can be expected, especially across the higher elevations. TNZ015>017-042-044-046-121200- /O.EXA.KMRX.WW.Y.0006.191112T0900Z-191112T1700Z/ Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington- Northwest Carter- Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Greeneville, Johnson City, and Elizabethton 1032 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Tennessee. * WHEN...From 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$
  19. Carvers Gap
    MJO is tricky right now because the phases that correspond to cold during fall are not the same as the ones that do so during winter. Right now, we are just about two and a half weeks from met winter beginning. So, it kind of has one foot in and one foot out in terms of...Do we use the fall phase correlations or the winter? Seems to me that outside of the GEFS, the western ridge is still a consistent ridge on LR modeling. Probably has been more a PNA ridge thane EPO so far IMHO. Either will work, though they do change precip amounts here. Also, don't want those ridges so tall that a trough tucks into the NW under it. A good quote from a poster a few years back...we know we are in trouble if we are having to watch MJO phases. Now, the MJO carries a ton of weight in my book. What the poster was basically saying is that a good pattern will often override the MJO influence. Right now the pattern is pretty good...and I haven't looked an MJO phase in about a week. LOL.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Also, looks like the QBO for October finished at 7.27 which is down from 8.25. So the QBO is still trending down. We want to see a sharper drop I think. Would not be surprised to see it negative by January. When glancing at previous downward trajectories, it seems like it will hover between 5-10 and then just drop(on its descending part of the cycle).
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I agree. Would be super surprised to see that hold in place for very long during winter. Although it seems like during a recent winter the WAR retrograded into eastern NA and did something similar for a few weeks and actually triggered an SSW. Yep, that occurred during one or both of the last two SSWs. So for the ah-ha moment of the evening, that look actually has proceeded the last two strat warming events - I think...definitely one. Your comment actually jogged my memory on that. It is indeed rare...but now I remember where I have seen it before. So, it will be interesting to see if an early winter SSW occurs. Maybe that is an example of a tropospheric planetary wave that potentially could transport a ton of warm air into the high latitudes. That could potentially displace the PV. At one time, I had made a mental note to remember that look....it is probably buried in one of the threads where we talked about SSWs. Below is the eastern NA ridge connecting to the -NAO. The EPS does not have this...trough is in the East. Anyway, I am not using a 384 hour map for any other purpose than to show what I was talking about. Only 64 more GFS runs before we reach that time frame! Anyway, that look is super similar to the WAR that hooked up with the -NAO that preceded one or both of the last strat warming events. Interesting.
  22. Carvers Gap
    LOL. The Weeklies depict almost exactly what John mentioned in terms of temps. No idea what its snow mean for that time frame was. 1954 lives on... 1954 began almost as a joke, because here at TRI we couldn't break those max temp records during September, but crushing all other years. For September, 1954 holds eight record highs. 2019 holds eight record highs. For October, 1954 holds four records highs. 2019 holds for record highs. And what is uncanny is that some of the warm spells came within a week of each other on the calendar. Then November turned cold during both months with snow reported in measurable amounts. The current cooler water off of SA may be acting as a bit of a weak Nina signal and that may be allowing for some mirroring of the two years. Still just sort of weird at this point. Not sure the two years are a great match in terms of SSTs...but their Septembers, Octobers, Novembers, and maybe even Decembers(???) are super similar. All of that said, sometimes things that appear to have good correlations...have no relationship whatsoever. There are actually some pretty hilarious (and false) connections that statistics bring together at times. In this case, maybe the Nina ENSO in the eastern Pacific is something to think about. Also, it seems like the weather patterns recently have been similar to the early and mid 50s analogs. So, there might be something to that. Anyway, it is now just kind of fun to see just how far we can take an "iffy" analog.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I agree. We don't want what the Euro Weeklies were cooking up though...but they have been awful in the 4-6 week range(for the past year or so...they used to have some skill before last winter). What the GEFS is showing took several weeks to dislodge in September, and only seasonal wave lengths really disrupted it. That said....it is the GEFS and it does not have support yet. It also makes sense to have some sort of moderation after the well BN temps that we have been having. And true, many great winters never really got going until January. Last year has spooked me as well along with isotherm's forecast. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That is not a pretty picture on the 12z or 18z GEFS in the d10-15 - Well above normal temps being portrayed with an eastern ridge connecting to a -NAO. When have we seen that before? September. Thankfully, the 12z EPS is not on board with that business. On a positive note, there is evidence on the EPS that a -NAO is trying to develop. If true, just throw modeling out the window right now. High latitude blocking wrecks LR models at times...just too many plates to juggle. I was feeling pretty good about December until I saw the GEFS. The Euro Weeklies(I don't even look at surface temps on it anymore because they are always warm after week 2) have a decent 500 pattern through mid-December before their predictable global torch for weeks 4-6. Weeks 2-4 looks overall seasonable with not a ton of amplification. I have recently had a slight lean towards a BN first half of December...but the GEFS has me spooked. Maybe it shouldn't, but it has been ahead of the EPS on pattern changes lately. The GEFS is a bit of an outlier...but it has led the way for about six weeks. So, it can't be discounted just yet. The GEFS is a total flip of the pattern beginning at day 10. Definitely some things in the LR that still have to be worked out and have repercussions regarding the first month of winter.
  25. Carvers Gap
    That'll help quite a bit. We used to live off Sunset just near State of Franklin several years ago while my wife was finishing up med school. We used to rack the heck up on northwest flow events over there. Lived right on top of a hill. Plus, if you just need to see snow...you can always drive to Boone and see it while they are blowing snow. LOL. JC is a great location. I miss seeing the mountains over there every day.
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