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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    My only concern with the GFS is how quickly it is moving its snow axis westward. During the last four runs, it has moved from eastern W VA to Lexington, KY, at that latitude. Would be nice to see it settle on a track. Let's see where the CMC goes.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through modeling this morning. Here is the 6z Euro Control. @Holston_River_Rambler, I don't think the operational goes out to 144 and neither the ensemble nor deterministic have precip types at 6z, right? Either way, this is a good look eastern section of middle TN and mirrors the 6z GFS.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I think anytime we have a strong fold front on modeling (during the next couple of weeks), going to have to be watched.
  4. Carvers Gap
    As for the 6z GFS, going to need other modeling come east as the GFS is on the eastern side of the envelope (and trended westward at 6z) for the NYE storm. Still a long way to go on that one. We were fortunate to track the Christmas Eve deal from almost ten days - that is a rarity. The pattern does support 1-2 storms taking the low road during that time frame. The storm immediately after the NYE storm is kind of what I am watching.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 seasonal(which bounces around and changes quite a bit as it runs once per day) illustrates the concern for January, and also illustrates how a -NAO can create a ridge in the East. I think we will see an undetermined period of the look below - might be just a few days, a week, or weeks. Just tough to tell. We are now entering that time frame that is one where I have low confidence as modeling is juggling several plates(see my posts yesterday). The GEFS OLR maps today do depict convection in the IO(Inidan Ocean) region in the phases 3-4 regions and maybe some weaker convection in the phases 1-2 regions as well. We don't want that showing up long term as one only needs to look to last winter to see the consequences of that. The run below kind of shows what modeling is dealing with. The 0z EPS now has a similar look to what is below. The variability is possibly due to the MJO becoming possibly becoming more of a factor on some modeling and even during various model runs...and less on others. What all of this means is that the Atlantic(-NAO) is going to have to be the driver in the LR if we want more cold and snow after the New Year and little help from the Pacific is on the Horizon....and the Atlantic, if too strong, can actually become a thorn as well. Finally, let's see where the EPS goes(the 6z GEFS implies the ridge). I don't like losing it in the LR. Just one run of the EPS which looks bad, so let's see where it goes. Indeed, the 6z GFS has a similar set-up to the Christmas Eve event. The Euro is basically a cutter for that event. CMC is in between the Euro and GFS. Canadian modeling has been pretty good this winter. The window from NYE to maybe around Jan 4th has some potential for the subform. After that time frame...toss-up.
  6. Carvers Gap
  7. Carvers Gap
    Definitely an interesting time for sure. Thanks for the data. Yeah, it looks almost like the same set-up. Would be the third one this month of that type - old school right there. Used to happen way back...not as much these days. I wonder with the -NAO if it is slowing systems down enough that the cold catches the precip...have to think it has something to do with the block.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Just digging back through this thread, the GFS and Euro almost nailed this from ten days out. My big take away is that Arctic fronts bring good things(this year anyway) if they are real on modeling. So, we can’t tuck that one away in case we see a similar setup again this winter, and I would guess we might.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The Euro OP straight nailed this from 9 days out. LOL
  10. Carvers Gap
    I like this map from the CFSv2 for January. It looks a lot like the Weeklies Canadian which came out last night. I think there will be times when a trough rolls through and after that a ridge rolls through and maybe connects to the -NAO. That, in turn, will create some nice weather at time’s. However, one thing which seems like a constant is this look. Sometimes it has the small ridge out west and sometimes it doesn't. This pattern looks remarkably similar to the set-up which just produced this current storm. Going to see some cutters with that look. Likely will see some coastals if it verifies. This is the kind of pattern that has an outside chance of opening the Arctic, letting cold slide south, and then trapping it under that ridge. That happens at times. Right now, afternoon ensembles have a +PNA, -NAO,- and -AO. Get some normal temps into the SE for January, and we might have some more chances. You can pretty much see the storm track on that map. Verbatim, that wold give our folks in the western sub-forum some chances as well. Those tracks would have some cutters, sliders, and coastals. Needs some cold in that pattern for things to be really good, but that map is workable...not exceptional but workable.
  11. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS with "Cold Catching Rain Sequel" on NYE. LOL. That would make like three times that has happened in a month. Old timers around here used to tell me when I was little that often the best snows came immediately after heavy rain during the winter. This has been an "old school" month for weather: -NAO, cold catching the rain, and an early start to winter.
  12. Carvers Gap
    What would be gold would be to have the TPV split, head south, and get locked under that block right there.
  13. Carvers Gap
    That is how it should look. That is better than good. As a friend noted, a ridge may roll through from time to time...but that is how a block should look. Not sure I have a seen a block that intense last for that long. Yesterday's system of cold catching rain was old school. That look right there is old school. I think modeling is feeling that unfavorable MJO, but the very favorable -NAO is balancing this Sith/Jedi pattern in the LR - where there is one, there is another. Well, something like that...
  14. Carvers Gap
    Several snow showers today in the wake of yesterday's system. Wind chills at TRI are at 4F. I suspect they are near or below zero here. Wind has been howling off and on during the past 30 mins. Coldest day in a long time. Awesome!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    And just like that the GEFS and GEPS are back to a workable look at 12z.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And just like that the GEFS and GEPS are back to a workable look at 12z. LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Further on d10+.. The 0z EPS allows a -EPO (not strong but there) to pop. That fits with it flirting with phases 3-4 of the MJO but going back into the COD where it is now. The GEFSBC takes the MJO into 3 and 4 at low amplitude. Now the GEFS, EMON, and ECMWF don't go there while the EMOM does. The IO firing is likely causing this. Question is, does it propagate in 5-6 or goes into COD/goes quiet. Throw in an SSW along with a wicked strong -NAO and not a ton of analogs which match this setup (warm NE PAC to start winter...think I had been saying incorrectly NW PAC - sorry)...and one gets pretty crazy looking ensembles. Lots going on which might lead me to think a single pattern may not lock-in for January. Merry Christmas, everyone!
  18. Carvers Gap
    For now, I lean 0z EPS on its depiction or maybe the 0z GEPS.
  19. Carvers Gap
    LR thoughts...posted them in the Dec thread but will link them here in the new thread. Changes in global ensembles (2 posts)....
  20. Carvers Gap
    Re: d10+ Yeah, the MJO is being handled quite differently by the Euro vs American suite....That said, there is a trend to take the MJO in phases 3 and/or 4 - that is a change. The amplitude in which that might happen is the question. That means the Pacific would revert to trying to force a trough into the West. The strongly negative NAO would counterbalance that. Modeling handles those dualing signals differently. The 6z GEFS is connecting the NAO to an eastern ridge. The EPS undercuts the NAO and allows a trough in the West but also allows the storm track to stay further south east of the Mississippi. We definitely need to be pulling for the EPS. Thing is, the EPS was flirting with the GEFS scenario a few days ago. It would not surprise me to see a trough in the West as Nina winters do favor that. The real question is whether that trough buries itself deep into the West of centers itself further north and has a NW to SE orientation. Lots of questions and very low confidence after the New Year. Again again, modeling has been wrong about the eastern ridge for nearly this entire month....nothing is set in stone right now. With this strat warm stuff...modeling may be haywire for some time.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Next two posts related to day 10+... Not great trends for sure overnight with two global ensembles. Guessing(haven’t looked) that the MJO is unfavorable. 6z GEFS and 0z GEPS have a less than ideal NAO setup which can happen. Not sure that holds but is something you might see sometimes during summer where the NAO connect to an eastern ridge. The 0z EPS is actually a very good setup. The good thing about the EPS is that this is the time of year where it is much more dependable in the LR. With the strat getting hammered...models are going to be all over the place. I do think I we may see a time of ridging just after the New Year maybe around the end of week 1 and into week 2 - but that is not a given. Nina winters tend to have very warm spells at times. But I wouldn’t sweat it at this range...models have been predicting warmups for about a month and hasn’t occurred yet. That NAO is likely going to win a lot of battles if it holds...Will check the MJO later. It has been trending poorly for a few days and will battle a favorable Atlantic.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Knoxville, TN, has scored twice during December. You all are racking up down there!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Running just north of 4" of snow. With so much blowing earlier, tough to find a spot to measure that wasn't in the lee of a big tree. Things have settled down now. Just waiting for snow showers to fire, and put a top on the new snow. Great day! Great to hear all of the observations from everyone.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Man, we put 3 min in today while it was...raining. LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, snow showers should persist off and on until about lunch tomorrow. TRI may have one last batch in the morning... Pretty much perfect weather for Christmas. Rare day to see heavy rain turn to heavy snow.
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