cbmclean

Big 3 ensembles show the SER firmly in charge at the end of their runs. Hopefully they are hallucinating a canonical nina response.

In the MA thread there has been discussion about how bad the GFS has been performing lately, besides the euro, CMC, UKIE, the Euro AI is also trouncing it. Perhaps time to relegate it to the JV along with the ICON and the JMA.

We would be better served to look at the medians anyway, as they are not skewed by the outrageous totals of a few outliers. Not sure if any site provides the medians?

This might sound silly but my eyes have been dazzled by all the pretty maps; what is the actual timeframe of the event that we are trying to reel in? 1/21?

That would be perfect for a northwest trend if it was 2 days out.

Yeah but it generally tends to waffle more back and less forth, Needless to say, we are rooting for the GFS solution against the Euro, which is not a nice place to be :(.

Ouch. Now THAT is a warm nose. It's like 55 F at 800 HP.

We're getting toO exuberant. The letdown will be painful.

What is this thing called "snow" of which you speak. We in ENC do not understand...

I see we have recovered from the sugar high of those back-to-back GFS/Euro runs yesterday. All hope is still lost; carry on.

Still looks like the GEFS and EPS are predicting the "Pacific Ridge" regime in the extended. I'm less sure of this now than I was before, though. Could this be the inverse of previous El Nino years (think 2018-19, and 2023-24) where the extended guidance endlessly spat out a canonical Nino response?

Any idea what is causing that extreme anomaly?

Let us dream for 6 hours.

"Aggressive". You have a flair for understatement, sir.

This is SE weenie approved. I'll see myself to the door, thanks. You guys will have the last laugh when I stare sadly out the window at cold rain while you shovel when it moves north.

Would you mind explaining what you mean by "over running signal".

THIS! As much as I love them in CAD events, I hate the Apps during -EPO cold outbreaks. It's also frustrating that for some reason the model physics can't resolve how they block low level cold air so they constantly tease us.

Yes CLT and RDU broke that streak yesterday but but by the bare minimum. Very little snow actually fell. It was mostly sleet and frz rn

I'm definitely encouraged about what might happen for the MA in a good pattern. But as you have stated in multiple write-ups one of the most damning aspects of the whole situation is the fact that the MA used to be able to sometimes get nickels and dimes even when the pattern had flaws. But over the last period, any sort of pattern flaw led to complete failure. I will feel more optimistic once you start periodically succeeding even when there is something "off" in the pattern. And yes that is important to me as a SE weenie. Because if your snow climo turns into my snow climo and you need absolutely everything to be right to get decent snow, then it doesn't take a weather genius to guess what MY snow climo is going to turn into.

I have a similar armchair psychology guess, based on insights into my own nature. If you think about it, failing during a good pattern could be considered much more threatening than just being in a bad pattern and fulfilling expectations. So when a potentially good period appears on the horizon we want to downplay it to reduce psychological pain that would occur if it fails. Sort of a defense mechanism.

Shit the (frozen) blinds.

A 5 minute period of moderate snow in Wilson nicely whitened the ground up, but back to sleet now. I am shaking my fist at the warm nose.

Light snow in Wilson.

@psuhoffman We never did get a trip report. How was the snow/temps in BC?

Where is a good site for radar coverage with p-types?