cbmclean

THIS! As much as I love them in CAD events, I hate the Apps during -EPO cold outbreaks. It's also frustrating that for some reason the model physics can't resolve how they block low level cold air so they constantly tease us.

Yes CLT and RDU broke that streak yesterday but but by the bare minimum. Very little snow actually fell. It was mostly sleet and frz rn

I'm definitely encouraged about what might happen for the MA in a good pattern. But as you have stated in multiple write-ups one of the most damning aspects of the whole situation is the fact that the MA used to be able to sometimes get nickels and dimes even when the pattern had flaws. But over the last period, any sort of pattern flaw led to complete failure. I will feel more optimistic once you start periodically succeeding even when there is something "off" in the pattern. And yes that is important to me as a SE weenie. Because if your snow climo turns into my snow climo and you need absolutely everything to be right to get decent snow, then it doesn't take a weather genius to guess what MY snow climo is going to turn into.

I have a similar armchair psychology guess, based on insights into my own nature. If you think about it, failing during a good pattern could be considered much more threatening than just being in a bad pattern and fulfilling expectations. So when a potentially good period appears on the horizon we want to downplay it to reduce psychological pain that would occur if it fails. Sort of a defense mechanism.

Shit the (frozen) blinds.

A 5 minute period of moderate snow in Wilson nicely whitened the ground up, but back to sleet now. I am shaking my fist at the warm nose.

Light snow in Wilson.

@psuhoffman We never did get a trip report. How was the snow/temps in BC?

Where is a good site for radar coverage with p-types?

The lightest of sleet here in Wilson. Temp oozing down 33.1 now.

It was poetic license.

For me, I have to put the Prince sketch in there right after Rick James. Last year the SE Ridge crushed my snow hopes...and made me pancakes.

What did the hand say to the Southeast Ridge?

I thought you were just a big-game hunter?

Not bad for VA but very Meh for NC. cold is definitely centered west as the trough axis retrogrades. The SER begins to rise. This screams cold-dry intervals punctuated by warm-rain.

I'll be happy for you if it happens but it will be maddening for me. I'll b mere miles away from the good stuff.

Unlikely. General rule of thumb is models usually overdo the icing. But I guess there are probably exceptions.

LR ENS don't look horrible with regards to temps through the ends of the runs.

He was just joking at the Feb 2026 typo.

boo, hiss.

Well put, but La Nina + -PDO + bad MJO leave me with low expectations for FEB.

Anti-weenie rule #1: Always trust the warmest model.

I'm not a fan of the PR regime in general. Maybe it's not as hostile if there is a trough underneath the ridge.

The NAM was first to sniff out the Jan 2017 debacle. It was on an island then as well. If it says warm, I have to trust it.

It ALWAYS overperforms.