jm1220

Every winter from here on out won’t be warm and snow unlikely. That’s ridiculous. We were due for a lousy stretch of winters after so many above normal since 2000. We’ve had many stretches like this in the past-much of the 1980s and late 1990s were awful. I’m hopeful we somehow make it to normal but I’m not optimistic for this season either. Doesn’t mean we’re somehow shut out permanently. If the NAO/AO cooperate, PNA, EPO etc we can be very snowy.

Well ok

We need a snowy December in a Nina here or it’ll be a bust. The SE ridge inevitably comes back in Jan into Feb. Even 10-11 quieted down after the late Jan snow event. In 17-18 we lucked out with the March events but we can’t count on that for sure. The background state becoming more and more Nina like over the last decade (with a couple of exceptions) was destined to bite us eventually. There are some ways we can luck out but we also need help from the NAO to keep the ridge at bay. If we don’t have that on our side either it’ll be another lousy winter. I’m not too excited for this winter but even normal snow is a solid improvement.

Was a good steady rain for the early part of the day in Long Beach.

The high’s dominating everything and crushing the rain south.

The big high looks to be winning out. Why can’t this ever happen in the winter with SWFEs....

Another Nina-yeah, likely (we've essentially been in a Nina background state for over a decade other than the super Nino 15-16 which it took the super Nino to snap the Nina for that one season). Hopefully we can get some other factors like the MJO which wrecked our last 2 winters and NAO to help out and not have every storm be a cutter. 10-11 is an example of how the NAO can salvage a Nina winter but that was an extreme example. I'd be thrilled if we make it to average snow or a little better, like how 12-13 was generally. Lot of downside though if the MJO stays in phase 4-6 again and the NAO/AO Is mostly positive. The hyper-roaring Pacific jet flooding the US with mild garbage is never good either. N New England/Midwest/West favored.

Yikes. Alexandria, LA with just over 7.5" rain so far.

The pressure gradient will probably help. NAM has 30-40mph winds near the coast as it moves in, enough for a wind advisory. Quite winter-like, you can even see the cold air damming from the high-baggy isobars. Of course it won't be cold enough for snow, but inland it might be in the 40s for the storm. 2-3 months from now it would be snow/ice to rain for the coast and a wintry mess inland deal.

The S/W and rain moving in resembles a SWFE winter event. We even have the big high NE of us as an overrunning setup.

I think he meant for winter patterns.

There's definitely still strong winds in the back half of it, but I wonder if there's any kind of "eyewall" left to really bring the winds down. I remember the second half of Irene which was eaten away from dry air still having some strong wind but it not lasting long, and the sun being out with 50-60mph wind still. Apparently the same happened with Gloria up here.

Any info on the surge impacts?

I think we have quite a ways to go before even a cold airmass and good storm track means mix or rain still for most.

Could be a very nice rain event if we get the slug of moisture left from Delta along with focusing from a frontal boundary nearby. NAM has been pretty insistent on up to 4" of rain near that boundary over a fairly prolonged period. Hopefully it can extend N into New England where there's a severe drought.

The models last night were also showing a pretty hostile environment for it to move into-lots of dry air, increasing shear and cooler water. There was a Brownsville sounding another poster showed that already had increasing shear heading into the storm last night. Might end up a cat 1 by landfall. That’s NOT to say it won’t be very impactful still.

I’m seeing 12-13 pop up as an analog in some places and it would be fine for me. Where I am now probably had close to 2 feet from the 2/8-9 event.

Radar from what I see is going half-acane which means dry air is intruding into the core. It’s probably a cat 2 now.

100-105mph at landfall would be my guess.

Laura and Michael both had 29-30°C SSTs right up to the shoreline. Michael's VWS decreased the closer it got to he coast. Laura's increased too late, essentially just after landfall, and wasn't able to disrupt its core. Delta's VWS should be infringing at least 6-9 hours prior to landfall. Some modeling even slows down Delta's forward motion near landfall which could allow shear and cooler SSTs to disrupt the core even further. That being said, Delta's circulation is going to be large and the surge impact will already have been attained regardless if it's falling apart at landfall. Yep, again lucky that surge should mostly hit low populated areas (of course some will still be affected for sure, hope they’re out).

They broke the pattern that’s typical for northern Gulf hurricanes.

Models show quite a bit of dry air entrainment and some shear in addition to the cooler waters as it comes in, so it likely peaks overnight and then starts dealing with these factors. The dry air will erode the south side pretty fast and lead to the half-a-cane. We’ll see though if this can break the pattern of many northern Gulf landfalls that go half-a-cane like Laura and Michael. And yes very fortunate there isn’t a city East of Cameron for quite a ways on the shore, just a huge preserve with some small towns (which will get hit hard again unfortunately). For sure New Orleans/Houston have dodged bullets.

My power went off for a time overnight. We probably gusted to 40-45mph or so here. No significant tree damage from what I could see, some smaller branches down. Would have much rather gotten the rain. Story of the summer and fall so far- heavy rain axis keeps backing west and once again NJ/lower Hudson Valley get soaked and quickly lowering amounts E of the Hudson, other than the outlier event just after Labor Day in southern Nassau. Fay, Isaias, this one etc.

Color me stunned-STUNNED-that NJ and the lower Hudson Valley got the best of this rain event once again and places on eastern LI that needed it were shafted. Winds did gust to 40mph or so here but we may have ended with half inch of rain or so which was below expected.

Hard to expect more than 2-3” anywhere since it’ll be narrow bands where it could be more than that, but the front is fairly slow moving and some very moist air is being drawn in. Regardless it’s welcome especially further out in Suffolk where Fay/Isaias didn’t bring much rain.