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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close.
  2. jm1220
    On the 3k like the 12k much of this is a front end thump. By 6z, it gets above 0C at 800mb on LI and probably NYC very briefly but it's barely precipitating (what's falling would be sleet). Something of a CCB comes through and cools the column back down.
  3. jm1220
    Problem is really the dryslot this run for NYC and east. The 700mb low track should be a little further SE. It looks like a 3-5 hour crazy thump up front, light snow/sleet/mix in that dryslot, then whatever can come from the CCB as it slides east. There's 1-1.5" liquid for this area but 2"+ in a band from Torrington CT to State College, PA. That's where the huge totals would be.
  4. jm1220
    On the snow maps it does look like sleet cuts down accums for the city on south/east. The 10-1 map has 10" for the city
  5. jm1220
    On second thought really not much change from 18z to me, maybe a bit more amped.
  6. jm1220
    The warm air would come above 850mb, probably at 750-800mb. The 850 low track looks good so the warmth would come above that layer. That being said, the way the NAM evolves it could mean we all have an insane front end thump then sleet when the precip tapers down. By 9z there's a dryslot coming in.
  7. jm1220
    IDK, to me it looks more amped this run (not hugely but noticeable). I could definitely see how areas south of the city deal with sleet/rain for a time on this run. The 700 low looks to track maybe over or just north of the city, meaning warm air aloft will try to get in.
  8. jm1220
    Becoming cautiously optimistic for here but won’t take much to bring the mix line through to the sound. Seems as if it may be more an issue SW of here since the low hasn’t developed enough by the time it gets to PHL-TTN?
  9. jm1220
    Yep. Thank goodness we have that there or this is an easy washout.
  10. jm1220
    Over NJ they are screwed more by onshore winds from the NE than mid level warmth to me, at least from Toms River north. That evolution would be heavy snow Philly on north if it was a month later and waters colder.
  11. jm1220
    Not sure we can blame this on convective feedback. If the confluence says it can’t go north any further, that’s what happens.
  12. jm1220
    Looks like Upton going with around a foot or just over at this point for most of the NYC area, and sleet or rain cutting things back out east.
  13. jm1220
    If the winds stay from a NE direction which is very likely I doubt anyone other than the twin forks maybe see any rain. Coastal NJ will have mostly rain because of NE winds-there that's onshore with warm early Dec waters. As for the sleet, the 700/850 low tracks are key, and there was improvement on the recent NAM/Euro runs.
  14. jm1220
    Actually the GFS doesn’t look much different to me at all. The 0.75” liquid line makes it just a hair further north in CT vs 12z? On both runs Boston is just under 0.5” liquid.
  15. jm1220
    GFS was always going to trend north. Not much doubt this tries to tuck toward southern NJ-then hopefully sharp east turn. Areas of CT and S NY will do quite well with this-never bought these crazy cutoffs just north of me.
  16. jm1220
    I'm not too concerned with it. The Euro/NAM coming southeast was a good thing. And even so the RGEM was pretty nice verbatim for our area. Philly area gets a ton of sleet.
  17. jm1220
    The low coming into NYC would be a disaster.
  18. jm1220
    S NJ is very unlikely to get much snow from this even if the mid levels cool a little more. Surface winds there coming from the Atlantic are a killer in Dec.
  19. jm1220
    The 700 low on this 18z run looks like it tracks just about over NYC and LI, 850 low about 75 miles SE. Good improvement here. I would think this could be enough to keep much mix away.
  20. jm1220
    In the end I think it’s a sharper gradient than that. I agree that south of I-84 should be good, and near that northern edge could actually do quite well because that’s where ratios could be best and there’s usually a final heavy snow band that sets up there. But north of that it’s subsidence city along with the dry air and amounts drop fast. Guess we’ll see what can still happen but today’s trends aren’t great for Albany for example.
  21. jm1220
    The snow average for White Plains from what I know is something like high 30 inches annually while for me it’s a little less but not much, low 30s I think. In recent years this area really benefitted from the late developer Miller B events that Westchester might not have gotten as much from. But in I-95 rain snow line events it’s definitely better being in White Plains. White Plains is also higher in latitude. I’m at the Bronx/upper Manhattan latitude.
  22. jm1220
    FWIW Upton going with snow/sleet mix for now in E Suffolk and 4-8” S Fork, 6-10” N Fork. West of there for now all snow and 8-12” in W Suffolk and west. Additional snow Thu morning which wasn’t added in yet.
  23. jm1220
    Euro has the same resolution as the Nam so it should pick up the same warm layers etc.
  24. jm1220
    I think where you’d really want to pay attention is 750-800 mb. I’ll have to look up where there may be soundings.
  25. jm1220
    Yep- this is a situation IMO where we’re looking at dual pol to see where the sleet line ends up. Hopefully it stays just off the beaches. I’m more interested in those mid level low tracks than anything.
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