jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Watch still in effect here for 3-10". Quite the range, pretty much how I see it. Covers all of Suffolk County so 3" is probably the twin forks, 6" or so here.
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RGEM apparently still quite warm/tucked in for 18z run today.
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1/27/11 had an insane 500mb cutoff low that took a perfect track to nail us, and the initial batch of WAA snow shut off before the mid level warmth got here. It's a perfect example of the precip shutting off when the mid level warmth was here but the massive closed low crushed us that night. This won't be anything like that. The mid level low is actually deamplifying as it comes east.
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Surface wind direction also isn't great on the NAM for a time from the city east. At 6z the low center is over DE Bay and winds are coming in from the ENE. That could drive parts of LI above freezing so could actually mean some rain. Something of a coastal front develops that gets Montauk to around 42F at 9z. This run is a bit of improvement but more work needed.
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Often the models are too warm near the ground and actually under-do the mid level warmth. The NAM shows a strong closed 700 low, that will bring in the warmth for sure.
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Looking at soundings, by 3z many of us near the city could start changing to sleet. Warm nose comes in at 800-850mb and looks marginal there, howling SE wind coming in as well at that level. By 6z a sharp warm nose comes in at about 750mb and would certainly be sleet. But at that point not much may be falling. By 9z the warm nose recedes and column is below freezing except the surface which soundings have at about 32. Without this CCB feature behind the low it would probably be 3-6" in and near the city. Various warm layers start to mess things up fairly early. We need a better trend with the mid level lows.
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These CCB bands are modeled so often but many times don't happen. It does have a vigorous 500 and 700mb low which close off for a time so I guess I could see that somewhere.
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NAM is better but still not great or a huge hit for the city. Might be a start for better trends but we'll see. 700mb low still tracks over E PA and N NJ which brings mid level warm air in. Also drying out by 6z after initial thump. It does track a little south of 12z however which was over Port Jervis. We really want that tracking south of us if possible. Just north of that track will have the heaviest snow.
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It’ll be real somewhere for sure. The strong mid level lows mean there’ll be a huge front end hit of snow where we can make it happen but also dry air circulates in behind it.
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Eventually it will when it encounters the block/confluence. Better call is it has to before we’re flooded with warm mid level air and a dryslot.
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I’d say the odds of a foot in Central Park are under 30%. If I had to say a number there I’d say 7” of snow and junk mixed.
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For it to be a blizzard you need the conditions for 3 consecutive hours. Probably won’t happen since the most intense winds might correlate with the dryslot or mixing.
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Yes-it won’t be useful until tomorrow.
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Can’t speak much to it but I’d rather see models like the Rgem and Nam correct SE.
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It’s not weak aloft, it’s quite vigorous and gives the confluence a fight.
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Thanks! The storm you're referring to is probably 3/14/17.
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I'd be quite surprised at this point if we made it to a foot. 6-9" on the table still, if I had to guess we make it to the low end of that as a combo of snow and other junk. But a big front end burst can add up quick. Long Beach and the rest of the south shore might be more like 3-5".
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I lived there from 2004-09 and had a bunch of moderate events, nothing I would really call major. The largest single event was the Valentines Day 2007 snow/sleet event with I think 11". Consistently below average snow, one year 08-09 maybe got above 40". PLENTY of events that split PA down the middle and skipped us over, storms that formed too late or cutters that were sleet events. This looks like the kind of storm that can really dump on them-a track over the Chesapeake Bay into S NJ is essentially textbook for that area. The result is a sloppy mess for my backyard but I'll be thrilled if somehow UNV can pull it off to get above 20". Yes it's really been since 1994 that it's happened. The area is known for nickle/dime events that can add up but often to below season average. Further east/north often get in on the big nor'easters. 3/14/17 if I recall was a very nice event in State College but not like Binghamton/Scranton area. I drove through much of PA in the wake of that and definitely remember a huge max in NE PA that petered out a little to the west.
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That said hopefully the Euro stopped the bleeding and the other amped models can tick back SE.
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It’s the mid level low tracks that matter. If those go west of you, almost definite that you will mix and/or dryslot. Surface highs don’t stop that from happening. The high matters for the surface cold.
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Don't have the exact number for each city but pretty sure Jan 1996 blizzard was 12"+ for both too.
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It's still possible a lot of us get 4-8" if the initial snow thump really delivers. Guess we'll find out tomorrow.
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We can and have but this isn't the storm for it and not an analog for those. If the confluence was to hold better it could, looks now like it will be retreating and the low will be able to hug too far north.
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Lots of moderate type events when I lived in State College 2004-2009, nothing more than 10-11". Takes a setup just like this to really crush that area, track from Chesapeake Bay to NJ.
