jm1220

Yup, wasn’t expecting that given how far SE the other models were. Good job by the Nam.

Trend is very clear. I'd be pretty stunned if much makes it north of Cape May. NHC is also insistent on bending it E once it reaches NC.

CMC also pretty far SE with the track and precip, if anything even further SE than the GFS. I know it's not a tropical model by any means but NAM definitely on its own. Maybe the heavy precip/storms currently near Tampa shows where this is going-SE as it pulls the center and therefore track.

Crazy NAM/GFS disagreement on this for something so close in. NAM has heavy rain making it well into PA and the Hudson Valley, GFS crushes it to where heavy rain doesn't make it north of the Delmarva. We should see fairly soon which is right-NAM develops a big blob of heavy rain into western NC, even east TN and north GA. GFS concentrates it onto the GA/Carolina coast and drags it east from there. NHC track is still pretty clear on it coming in near Panama City and bending NE to ENE out near Nags Head NC which is much more inline with the GFS.

Good luck to any model or met trying to forecast something 4-5 days out or more. Probably plenty of crazy last minute model shifts again as they try to sort out the dueling influences.

There was a small tree down on Round Swamp Rd near the Northern State when I drove by, and some larger branches down here and there. In my neighborhood, lots of twigs and small branches down. So around me, probably 40-45 mph gusts or so, maybe here and there over 50.

Pre-Sandy, Irene, Mar 2010 nor’easter. That 2.5 year period decimated any long standing trees there.

Given the wind reports on the coast it must’ve been howling in Long Beach. Surprised there aren’t more power outages down there it seems.

Doesn’t look terrible in my neighborhood. Lots of smaller branches down but nothing too bad. On my office’s street in Melville there’s a large branch down.

The best winds may be after the low passes from the west.

The low is going almost directly over us and it’s flying along. Hard to get prolific rain amounts when that’s the case. Anyway, pouring out and fairly gusty wind here in S Huntington. Stations have 1-1.2” of rain so far.

October has 20 more days, and a massive ridge in the last few days of the month can easily undo any coolness now. Average highs also come down pretty fast from here and even a day not that warm at the start of the month would be quite warm for Halloween. The leaves are also falling and turning colors because of how dry it’s been, not the temp necessarily.

Rumbles of thunder, storms just to my north. Rain would be extremely welcome.

91 at the closest station to me in S Huntington.

LI going right through the gap in the storms. Typical.

Mid 40s this morning here. Brrrr

And very little where it’s needed over the I-35 corridor which is going into severe/extreme drought. It could be quite useful if this moved more and went NW instead of crawling north.

That trough diving in west of Dorian has to be watched closely over the next few days in case it's more amplified and can force a more NNE as opposed to NE track. Not out of the realm of possibility at all that the city/east can get a good period of rain/wind and certainly eastern Suffolk. Latest GFS has strong tropical storm conditions over Cape Cod. It will definitely cause a lot of beach erosion.

I wonder how big of an area was raked by these storms and the one earlier in the summer that also knocked out power for a chunk of Suffolk County. Maybe Islip/Bay Shore area?

Wow, there'll be lots of damage in the Ronkonkoma/Holbrook/Sayville area tomorrow as well as western Suffolk. Glad I missed the worst of the winds to my south. Would really suck losing power yet again.

Yeah, looks like the Southern State to Merrick Rd area is the place to be.

Pouring here. Not much wind or thunder.

This one may actually make it across the sound without collapsing. Hoping for something at least decent. Hearing thunder now.

Pray for major blocking to keep the storms south of us, or there will be endless cutters like last winter. Big Pacific Jet is all I need to know.

Talk about suppressed today-all that rain that was supposed to come through here on models yesterday looks like it’s headed for lower VA.