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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    The water table for most areas must be high enough that basements will flood with those kind of totals even away from rivers. Not good.
  2. jm1220
    Looks like there's consensus forming which unfortunately looks like the heaviest rain across the metro area/NJ/LI. RGEM shifted north at 6z when it's been south for a while. 5" for the south shore and 4" elsewhere around NYC/LI. 7" rain in Monmouth/Ocean Counties. Hudson Valley/N NJ mostly 1-3".
  3. jm1220
    That's the 0z map. The 6z has 4"+ for the area from I-80 and Tappan Zee bridge south. It definitely shifted south with the rain. So did the GFS.
  4. jm1220
    Could always see it keep going north due to the stronger ridge. Hard to bet against it. I agree. I've seen way more than enough rain.
  5. jm1220
    My brother lives in Lake Worth, FL and was there for Dorian. It's insane (lucky) how he had some gusty showers pretty much but 100 or so miles east over Grand Bahama Island was annihilated. The PBI to MIA stretch is incredibly overdue for a bad one and the check will come due soon. Once north of NC hurricanes completely change to much more broad impacts. The worst of Sandy was actually 100 miles N of the center.
  6. jm1220
    Great job!!
  7. jm1220
    There won't be 10" of rain from this but the 4-6" here for most would definitely cause problems. Probably lots of flooding near any rivers which I'm sure are still full from runoff during Henri.
  8. jm1220
    Gas appliances are rare down south, it's mostly electric stoves. For those who do though-great. Thankfully the levees held in NOLA. Them being repaired/rebuilt recently I'm sure helped. The western suburbs though look horrendous.
  9. jm1220
    Nam is probably overdone with the rain but some areas could definitely see 3-5" with this. With the ground being so saturated it will present problems quickly for river basins.
  10. jm1220
    Katrina may have been the worst case track. Easterly winds piled water into Lake Pontchartrain and also up the Miss. River, then the northerly winds pushed the lake into the city. This track is bad though too, it's a 1964 Betsy type track. That drives water up the river and from the lakes/swamp south of them, but those likely soak up some of the surge before reaching the city. The danger seems to be more Lake Pontchartrain overflowing right into the city.
  11. jm1220
    We’re at the time of year where the seabreeze doesn’t make the conditions cooler. The temp goes down but humidity goes up.
  12. jm1220
    Thanks as always WDrag, but I’ll go with a no on this one as well.
  13. jm1220
    Same here. Irene had a lot of front end rain in Long Beach and the surge was pretty bad-most basements flooded but not first floors like Sandy. We had 60mph winds or so but tree damage wasn’t too bad. 3/2010 and Sandy eliminated essentially every big tree here.
  14. jm1220
    Thankfully the wind didn’t materialize outside a small area in RI. If there was 70 mph wind in NYC with the 8” of rain the tree/power line damage would’ve been horrific. As bad as Isaias was wind wise it happened with less than 1” of rain east of NYC. In a way it’s a blessing for hurricanes up here.
  15. jm1220
    Tropical downpour here in Long Beach. Feels like a rainforest outside.
  16. jm1220
    A little over 4” in Long Beach I think and 3” in Huntington.
  17. jm1220
    A 946mb low in Atlantic City is about the most extreme event we will ever witness. Maybe out great great grandkids will see it again someday. Can’t emphasize sandy’s impact enough.
  18. jm1220
    It was the bend NW which models were showing but it’s see to believe. That plus the bent SW rain axis and it’s congrats NJ as usual.
  19. jm1220
    And that NJ somehow will get the heaviest rain amounts. Always works out some way.
  20. jm1220
    Awesome job by the GFS especially. Literally the swath it had the heavy rain for had the least of the tri state area. Hamptons might not even have 1”.
  21. jm1220
    I think Central Park’s already over 7”.
  22. jm1220
    Yep, it’s actually getting fairly gusty in Long Beach now that the rain stopped. Go figure.
  23. jm1220
    Might be close to 7” now. Heavy band is sitting over the city again. Crazy thing is Yonkers which is just north of the Bronx Westchester border probably has 2” tops. IMBY there’s been about 4”.
  24. jm1220
    The stadium effect in the eye over Watch Hill RI must've been awesome.
  25. jm1220
    Yeah.... with the Hurricane Bob/Carol/1938 comparisons
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