jm1220

Fickle evolution. Hopefully the wetter models are right. It won’t cause flooding since the rain comes over a few days and we need to build up the groundwater for summer.

GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain.

5" over a few days would actually be quite beneficial. We all know what normally happens on LI in the summer. Also we have to see how it evolves. Could be a few days of mostly raw misty crap on easterly wind while the real rain is west.

Wow. Reading today about much of the PSU campus/State College still with no power, and trees down everywhere. I never saw anything that bad when I was there.

Gorgeous. 75 this afternoon right down to the beaches.

Looks like it was quite intense heading down the I-80 corridor. In State College lots of trees down/roads closed. I remember some decent T-storms and small hail when I lived there but this seemed particularly bad. The line bowed out heading that way so I’m sure there was significant wind impact that whole area. Edit-saw report of 65mph gust at the NWS State College office.

Wow. Tragic https://www.wtaj.com/news/local-news/man-electrocuted-killed-after-storm-damaged-lines-in-centre-county/

22 year old was killed in State College PA yesterday in the severe T-storms. Tragic. That bow echo looked pretty intense going through the area. Lots of downed tree reports. 30000+ without power in State College area as well. https://www.wtaj.com/news/local-news/man-electrocuted-killed-after-storm-damaged-lines-in-centre-county/

Should be nice down to the shoreline tomorrow with NW offshore wind, though might still be gusty.

Yep not terrible on the barrier islands actually. Long Beach made it up to 60. Winds are picking up though-JFK at 20mph this hour so right on the water might be nasty with blowing sand.

71 at home, 58 in Long Beach. Was actually expecting colder on the barrier islands.

Definitely strenuous riding on the boardwalk those days.

Nasty afternoon to be on the south shore.

Around 5/5-6 timeframe the models build in an upper low near and NE of us, which we all know means nasty onshore/backdoor conditions. Hope it's wrong. Probably won't bring much rain either which we're starting to need and have to build up in the groundwater before summer.

Barrier islands had maybe a couple showers and are missing this, summer drought season starting early.

In Long Beach today-nice and around 60 but would rather be at home where it’s 75.

The Sun fuses 600 million tons of hydrogen to helium every second and the helium accumulates like ash in the core. The core gradually shrinks as there’s less hydrogen to burn, but as it shrinks it heats up, and the reaction rate/energy output from the Sun increases and over time the outer envelope of the Sun expands. Interesting stuff. 600 million tons sounds like a lot until you realize the Earth is basically a dot compared to the Sun.

Need to build up the water table for the inevitable summer dry out.

Way beyond any of our lifetimes obviously, but in a couple hundred million years the Sun will heat up to an extent that our oceans will evaporate away. Our magnetic field will keep the water vapor from being leached out into space so our planet will be a gigantic pressurized teakettle pretty much. It’ll be hot like Venus but even more pressurized because of the water vapor. Fun! Of course the immediate problem is CO2 and methane which will kill us a lot sooner if we don’t get it under control.

But at least the Delmarva and Gulf Coast cashed in!

Another sad pathetic winter. Thanks for all the work putting the maps together.

I ended up with a finance degree, thankfully I got through enough of the meteo math early enough to get that out of the way lol.

There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves.

Yep, looking warmer since we should have westerly flow for now. Have to always be aware of the turn on a dime to gunk with easterly wind this time of year though.

The wet pattern to our west might mean a more humid but less hot summer if we get a westerly flow pattern (where downslope heats it up but humidity would help cap how hot the temps actually get). And a more southerly flow pattern which has been more common in recent years would mean more onshore flow. Of course temps/dewpoint more like 93/75 vs 100/68 would make the heat index and what people experience worse not better.