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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface trends early 2018 has 7 analogs.. 3 went El Nino, 4 were Neutral. The way it's going, I would guess Weak or low end Moderate El Nino as a max, about the same % chance for Neutral, and slight chance we go back to Weak Nina in the Fall. Hurricane season is probably active with a lot of US misses.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Neutral NAO, but really I might call this slightly negative
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Hadley Cells expanded north, Polar Vortex shifted
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Next year might be El Nino so that would be interesting with how warm N Hemisphere SSTs were this Winter.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I would think in a 1000 year period the largest snowfall would happen in the Southeast, US. probably Florida
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Definitely warm when breaks
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    everyone is in a different time?

  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A below average cold season
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The +PNA is legit with ENSO subsurface right now.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is some pretty awesome cold for April. Wonder if it verifies.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAO is being subborn now on medium term models (meaning no neg NAO). Stratosphere warmings are followed by 2 -NAO bursts. This could be a sign for long regime +NAO phase still..
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Don't want to upload because of image size, but these images are so cool
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -PNA is just too strong on models. +500dm day 6. It's just really rare for this to go away
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    98-99, 99-00, 00-01. It's not too uncommon. 54-56 had a nice streak. 73-76 http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php I think a 3rd Nina year would be weird because of Global warming bias right now. 1 center El Nino event since 2010 in this exponentially warming climate?
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Don't expect it to go El Nino anytime soon.. subsurface for this late in the Winter may even support a Nina rebound in the Summer if it doesn't persist at the surface
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    10 or11 days away? Come on man. You're better than that. It has model agreement
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Storm potential March 6-8.. starting to look like -PNA may not be as modeled
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Since 2000, everytime we have had a strong -NAO block March 1-7, -NAO is through the rest of the month on a strong magnitude of at least +150dm at 500mb over Greenland for the March 8-31 period. 5/5
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You'll love this one, Global warming is another way of saying dimension split.. we are on really really low end here. Almost to the point of not going back but not quite yet but we are heading that way
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Good morning February
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    backdoor fronts this far south on a 588 ridge in February
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The SST movement changes direction next few weeks. This is when you'll see it change or not, some people say a Kelvin wave like we had is a preceding mark. Those +subsurface in the western regions are impressive. I think it's strengthening versus climo is a strong signal for North Pacific -PNA, like we are seeing now. The whole pattern has shifted north 200 miles so you aren't going to see severe wx setups like early 2000s
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