hawkeye_wx

Yeah, the GFS went from rain, changing to a bit of sloppy snow for Cedar Rapids, to now clobbering Cedar Rapids with 6-10".

GFS trend at H5. All the models appear to be doing this.

Obviously, the 18z Euro and the first evening model runs have the eastern Iowa members excited.

The Cedar Rapids airport has dropped below zero two or three times now, but the stations here in the city have not.

All the globals are cutting it right through Iowa. It looks pretty good for areas along the MN/IA border that just got nailed by the northern band of the last storm.

As always, when there is wind I struggle to get a good measurement. I'm going with 4.5". It appears the wind destroyed the ratio(the blowing snow really compacts). Despite the wind, my gauge still caught 0.53", which suggests even more than that fell. However, even the 3.1" on my snow board melted down to 0.48", a terrible 6.5 to 1 ratio. I know we got more than 3.1". The reports from in and around Cedar Rapids range from about 4.5 to 6", so I'm going with the low end of that. I always end up with the low end of the range where there is wind. Much of the Des Moines warning area crapped out, only receiving 0-2". The MN/IA border area was the winner.

I measured only 2.2" just before 10pm. With the decent snow(we never got heavy rates) nearly done, I'm guessing 4" is the most I'll be able to measure in the morning, the very bottom of the possible range. Locals were thinking 6-8". Model qpf with decent ratios suggested more as well. This has been a disappointment.

12z UK

The NAMs now have Cedar Rapids on the nw edge of the southern band. The heaviest snow may veer more to Cyclone's yard. Any additional veering could drop CR's total.

00z UK The central/western Iowa warning area may be in jeopardy. All of this evening's models look like this. The northern band is about the same, but the more positively tilted/quicker system is leading to a more eastward-veering southern band.

12z euro ... updated to show only snow precip

00z UK

The 18z NAM is great for my area, but I'd have to see that from other models before getting excited. Today's euro has much less qpf across the state.

Most models are now showing the dry moat through central Iowa. An initial band of snow streaks across northern Iowa, then the main system organizes well south. I had been saying how Iowa needed the PV lobe to back off, but maybe it's a case of 'be careful what you wish for'. The PV is backoff off, but the main energy is digging even farther south.

The 12z FV3 has slowed the PV lobe noticeably compared to the 00z run, allowing the main energy to amp up a little more... definitely an improvement.

The euro is at least flat and weak with that lead wave compared to the GFS.

I was just going to post that. The UK doesn't appear to have that PV lobe crashing southeast through the lakes on Saturday. Iowa needs that lobe to back off as much as possible. Otherwise, that nice energy moving in from the plains is going to dive southeast and leave us with only modest snow from an initial lobe of energy that shoots out of NE/SD. Tonight's UK actually has that initial lobe of snow passing through southern MN.

You are right about that lead piece of energy and its strength having an influence on the main storm. However, also check out the GFS 500 trend to see the main energy going from tucked under the Hudson Bay gyre to holding farther west and able to be suppressed by that lobe crashing down from the nw on Saturday.

The GFS has been slowing the main energy in recent runs, trending toward the euro. If the main energy is not quick enough to sneak underneath the Hudson Bay gyre(previous gfs runs showed this), it'll tend to be suppressed more, like the euro.

12z UK is very similar to the euro.

Ryan Maue tweeted the 12z euro 144 hr map. That sure looks familiar.

The 12z FV3 is about as good as it gets... a series of snow events and reinforcing cold through the end of the run. That would make a lot of us forget about the first half of winter.

If we get a bunch of cold, dry power on top of the current snow, with strong wind, good luck measuring.

I finished with 4.8" from 0.46" liquid. Considering I was expecting 2" early yesterday, I'm quite happy. I still want to see some heavy snow rates, but this was a nice light to moderate daytime snowfall. When the wind is light enough to use my snow boards, I like to clear one or two of my boards in the 8-12 hour range, depending on how long the snow is expected to last. I don't clear every 6 hours, even though that is acceptable, because it feels like I'm cheating. For this storm, my uncleared main snow board finished with 4.5" while the boards that were cleared halfway (~8 hours) finished with a combined total of 4.8".

When the wind is relatively light, I use a few snowboards in the open part of my enclosed backyard.