hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Hmm... Tropical Tidbits had an older recon dropsonde report listed. The new pressure is 980 mb if you account for a 17 kt wind.
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Still 984 mb. It should be lower next pass if the convection continues to fire.
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984 mb, wow! I was not expecting that. Frankly, the core convection is a bit meager. The color IR presentation isn't great. However, the visible loop shows it has nice organization. It could take off tonight if it can fire more widespread deep convection over/around the center.
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Nice... that pressure is well below what I thought they'd find.
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The 12z HWRF also continues to show only modest strengthening while Delta is in the Caribbean. One would think it could ramp back up in future runs.
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Morning models disagree about shear/weakening in the northern gulf. The GFS and UK show little if any weakening. The HWRF and Euro show rapid weakening.
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Oddly, the HWRF and HMON have gone much weaker again the last two runs.
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18z HWRF and HMON are still showing rapid deepening in the nw Caribbean. The HWRF drops it from 993 mb to 949 mb in 21 hours, beginning late Monday evening.
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If this system does become a hurricane and threaten the US gulf coast, the water over the northern gulf is no longer the fuel it was when Sally traversed the area. The image is from Ryan Maue on Twitter.
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The HWRF and HMON are really revving it up, to <970 mb, before reaching western Cuba or the Yucatan channel.
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92L has developed a decent circulation. Better convection and a decrease in shear over the 24-36 hours should allow it to organize. The new GFS is more robust, strengthening it to hurricane in the gulf with a landfall on the central gulf coast in a steady/weakening phase.
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We don't see many 980 mb tropical storms. The visible loop sure looks like a hurricane. Another recon was on the way, but there was no way they'd get down there in time so they turned around.
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This system is impressive. It appears to be rapidly strengthening as it is about to move inland.
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New dropsonde says 983 mb.
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This could have been quite a storm with one more day over water.
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The current upper level flow is quite favorable. It's just lacking a core.
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I was just thinking that this is clearly a TD. It'll be interesting to see how quickly this can rev up before reaching the northeast Yucatan coast.
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Some clouds kept our temp in the 40s into the early morning hours. We were able to fall to the mid 30s by morning. The always-colder-than-surrounding-stations Cedar Rapids airport hit 31º.
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Assuming we get another inch of rain through Saturday morning, our drought should be finished.
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The 12z Euro has Rene meandering around just north of the MDR, which leads to the new system getting sucked up into the weakness, so no threat to the Caribbean.
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12z GFS has a rapidly-strengthening hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in a week. I noticed last night's Euro had the system there, but much weaker.
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The top of the sister street where it meets the main avenue. Across the avenue is a dumpy mobile home area. Many of the big, old trees in that area look like the ones in this photo. Many of the crappy homes got ripped up, too.
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Looking down the next street... our sister street.
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Corner of the street entrance, opposite side. This tree was broken off at the ground and tossed 30 ft. Interesting photo.... all the trees along the right side of the street are still standing while all the trees on the left side were blown down.
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A couple houses up the street from me. Corner house at the entrance to my street.
