hawkeye_wx

987 mb this pass.

It seems the new convection is going to have to pinwheel around the center for several more hours before the pressure responds.

Convection is finally starting to fire again near the center.

A couple days ago this was expected to be sheared and weaken on approach to the gulf coast. Now the models are in the 960s to 970s.

Dropsonde: 982 mb (985 mb with 36 kt wind). That's another 3 mb down from the last pass.

986 mb (dropsonde says 988 with 22 kt wind) is pretty good considering it spent the morning with a naked center.

NHC quote --- With the recent improvement in the outflow over Zeta, it appears that the shear that had prevented strengthening has abated. The shear ahead of the storm is expected to remain low while the cyclone traverses the deep, warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As a result, Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane this morning, and continued strengthening is likely until Zeta moves over the Yucatan peninsula this evening. --- Since that bullish update, Zeta has become decoupled. The naked surface vortex has moved out from under the convection.

It appears the convection has been pushed off to the southeast of the center again.

997 mb now. This system could have a good night if it can fire some deep convection and keep the surface center under it.

The convection really likes the area well south of the center. It has been stuck there for two days.

The surface center can now be seen to the sw of Grand Cayman, where some new convection is bubbling up.

This system's convection keeps shifting south. The broad, weak low center still appears to be north of the convection.

The morning visible loop suggests there is a surface circulation centered near Grand Cayman.

I just drove by that apartment building yesterday. It is 1.5 miles to my sw. The building doesn't look much different now.

Models are starting to put more emphasis on a slop-gyre passing east-west to the south of Bermuda in the extended. Even the GFS is now showing that sloppiness stretching out the nw Caribbean energy.

Meteorologically, this would be quite a sight.

New recon dropsonde has the pressure up 3 mb to 958 mb.

966 mb per dropsonde

For now, the pressure is holding at 968 mb.

99 kt flight level, 90 kt SFMR this pass in ne quad.

968 mb is the latest dropsonde pressure. Also, convection is finally starting to fire up the east side of the center, which should lead to steady deepening today.

I thought Delta would look better by now. Earlier this evening, it appeared it was about to enter a phase in which convection would start pinwheeling around the center, but it has not happened. It has gone back to the firehose look, with only one point of initiation on the west side. The last recon found the pressure still stuck in the 970s and the surface wind (SFMR) at only 70 kt.

Pressure is still 973 or 974 mb. The eye is 30 nm wide.

973 mb per the latest dropsonde.

The mid/upper level flow is much improved from 24 hours ago.