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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro
  2. hawkeye_wx
    It's looking like maybe an inch here. Our snow season was well on track for avg to a bit above avg snowfall, but it has kinda petered out. Hopefully, some others can get something decent from the latest sheared-out system.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    You had better love winter if you're going to live in the Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec City corridor.
  4. hawkeye_wx
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Meanwhile, the UK is trending southeast and weaker. It is not really trying to dig the northern stream west at all. It's just a broad, sweeping dig that doesn't allow anything worth a darn to spin up.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    It appears Iowa will need a bit of relaxation of the suppressive flow to get the storm up here.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    A ridiculous band of snow pushed through SD/MN overnight, producing up to 3"/hr. There are totals of 12" in a narrow band through Minnesota, including Mankato, while across the border in South Dakota up to 16" fell. Why can stuff like this never happen here? We are getting rain/sleet this morning.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro
  9. hawkeye_wx
    We could definitely use some fresh snow. We are down to a few inches of dirty glacier.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro has now sunk the heaviest snow band away from MSP and into far northern Iowa. Decorah looks like a sweet spot, with less but still solid snow across Wisconsin. I'm not confident the southern-edge snow will accumulate very well. The surface temp from Cedar Rapids eastward into Illinois will be in the 30s.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    There was some decent spread, but tonight's model runs are converging on the IA/MN border region for the best snow.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    There is some significant model spread. The Euro is north and is the best for MSP. The Canadian is south and is best for Iowa. I even get heavy snow from the Canadian. Other models are in between, but the trend is to drift it south a bit. The latest UK now has the best snow from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Models show a potent system streaking into the nw part of the region on Sunday. Southern Minnesota looks like the bulls-eye. The system then weakens as it heads east into the lakes.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro... This run has narrowed the main snow band, but added a bit to Chicagoland.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    The central plains wave has been the problem for the models. The GFS, for example, initially had this wave becoming very progressive and badly stretched out. Then, a day or so ago, it suddenly trended toward a much slower, closed-off wave that even allowed good snow to get pulled back into Iowa. That was clearly wrong as well. The other models have been less extreme, but they've all struggled with the details of that wave.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    Definitely game over for Iowa.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK a major walk-back for Chicagoland. This run has strengthened the final wave for Ohio.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro ticked southeast
  19. hawkeye_wx
    Models are showing little change tonight.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS had gone to crap for this storm largely because it tried to stretch out and yank eastward the northern part of the western energy, which led to postively-tilted, suppressed nothing. The model is now furiously trying to undo that scenario. Now, instead of the energy getting sheared apart and whisked away, it holds it back and even closes it off over Iowa with the 18z run, which obviously leads to a very different result.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    For several days, the GFS has been hinting at a potential system as we approach mid month. The Euro is finally catching on. This morning's run has a widespread snow-to-mix overrunning event, not unlike the one we experienced a couple weeks ago.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Yep, total cave job. This Euro run sped up the northern part of the energy and shifted the southern piece a good bit back to the sw. Put those changes together and you pretty much get what the other models are showing.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK
  24. hawkeye_wx
    Our low temp was in the upper 30s and we're already in the 40s today, so the good snowpack is taking a hit.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Euro says, "Wtf is the GFS smoking?" Edit: Actually, now that I look back at the GFS, it does spin up a big storm. It's just well east of the Euro.
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