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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    It's a very active pattern over the next couple weeks. There will be an alternating series of brief mild and cold surges. The Euro is showing quite a temp contrast a week from now between the plains and lakes.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro is still hot with the weekend clipper for my area. This system is short-lived, though. It blows up in Siouxland and craps out after leaving Iowa.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Got down to -8º here, with some -teens across northern Iowa. Models are amping up the weekend clipper. The latest Euro is fairly robust.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    My total is 11.0". This storm had a lot of good qualities. One negative is it was mostly light to moderate snow, with only a couple brief bursts of heavy rates, which is why I was not able to get to a foot.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    I have 10.9 inches. Maybe I could squeeze another 0.1 out of the last light band.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    Looking at my records that go back to 2007, I had never even come close to getting double-digit snow in November, until this year.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, but that stuff will be very light and gradually lift north as it moves east. The latest CAMs have about another inch falling here over the next four hours.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    The nice, fluffy flakes from the recent heavy pocket boosted my total to 10.2 inches. Unfortunately, that was it for the good snow, so once again I will not get a 12" storm.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    A pocket of yellow just popped over CR, which should help get me to 10". Large flakes are dumping.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    I just measured 8.4 inches. The final batch of good snow is moving through now.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Just measured 7.1" in my yard. The heavier snow ahead of the low has moved in. The flakes are still small, but they are dense.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    Snow accumulation has been slow for much of the morning due to light rates and poor flake quality. The best snow is just now getting in here ahead of the low. Reports around CR/IC say about 7", which is probably what I have so far. I had 5.7" a couple+ hours ago.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Winners and losers so far. Parts of southern Iowa are getting hosed by a persistent dry pocket that models absolutely did not show at all.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    One real nice thing about this system is the wind is actually going to drop through this afternoon as the low passes by to the south and some of the best snow moves in. This should lead to an efficient ratio as the snow won't blow around.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    4.2" here as of 7:15am. The heaviest snow so far, with good-quality flakes, just popped over us. The winners so far have been Fort Dodge to Waterloo, where 8" has fallen. Southern Iowa has been stuck in a big dry pocket this morning, which models did not forecast. My ratio so far is 11.3 to 1, so not bad. The wind is not bad, so the snow in my backyard is very uniform, which I love.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro... doesn't get much better for Iowa.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    The CAMs were already holding steady with the high-end snow totals and now the lower models are coming up. This is looking like maybe a 10" floor for my area.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro... This is about as locked into 8+" as my area ever gets.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    This evening's regionals/CAMs have not backed off at all. In fact, every model so far has inched farther north. (NAM/3kNAM/FV3/RDPS/HRRR/RRFS)
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Can always count on the 18z NAM/3kNAM to go extra weenie.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    I would, of course, love for the 18z HRRR to be correct, but it is likely too strong and juiced. It has a 1004 mb low, whereas the globals have a 1008-1012 mb low. This HRRR run would probably finish with 16+" in Cedar Rapids, which I very much doubt. Half of that is more likely. The CAMs will probably come back to earth as the start approaches.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro is stronger/sharper with the shortwave at 500 mb than the rest of the models. I was expecting the 12z run to fade south and weaker just a bit, but it actually ticked farther north. Here are the resulting snow maps for the south UK, middle GFS, and north Euro.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Long-duration event, mostly light to moderate snow, with wind, the ratio in my yard is going to suck. I'm hoping for at least 6 inches.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    The shift back south is real across all models. Probably cut the totals by 30%, though.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    I'm sitting pretty good this morning, but this is still four days away, which is a long time in the model world.
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