hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Just a day ago models were cutting off a big upper low in the southwest US. Today they are shooting the energy eastward through the midwest. We'll likely see it flop all over the place through mid next week. -
I really don't mind a warm first part of December. I still have garden prep to do and last week's surprise 4" of snow put that on hold. Most of the snow is gone, but I'm waiting for the rest to melt.
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Today's wave is a bust, snow-wise. It's weak and it's too warm.
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The deeper-than-expected snow has really cratered the temp early in the week. A few days ago, the early-week highs were going to be in the 30s. Instead, we are struggling to get out of the teens. Tonight we are expecting single digits. We haven't risen above freezing since last Thursday. I still have some garden and garage winter prep to do. It will have to wait til we thaw out.
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This system exceeded the model predictions. I finished with a real nice 4.1 inches of snow from 0.34" of liquid. The heaviest snow fell in the 3-4am period, when I was asleep, but some decent fluffy stuff lingered after sunrise. Just a couple days ago this was looking like a weak nothingburger, maybe up to an inch in spots.
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Two consecutive days below freezing, combined with overnight timing, should aid the accumulation.
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All models today have shifted north and wetter, so DVN has expanded the advisory up through Cedar Rapids. We could get up to 3 inches.
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Terry Swails posted this in a recent blog post. Southeast Iowa is now 20-25" of rain below average since April 2022. Thanks to a couple big rain events in northern Illinois last summer, there is a near 30" difference between Ottumwa and Rockford.
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We are currently getting our first light snow of the season as a weak wave moves through ahead of the main system. Regarding the main system tonight, some of the models this morning are a bit wetter and north, so we could get a couple inches.
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It's looking good for our first snow of the season Saturday night into Sunday morning. We might be able to whiten the ground just a bit if the northern models are right.
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I still have several pots of flowers outside because it has been so mild (I put them in the garage during cold nights), but it certainly appears my garden season will fully end next week. I need the neighbors' oak tree to start dumping its leaves so I can collect them before the arctic blast arrives.
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A couple small cells early this morning quickly dropped another 0.37" here. My weekly total is up to 1.98". My October total is 5.14", more than the last three months combined.
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Today's system performed well for southeast Iowa. One cell produced the heaviest rain I've seen in months, and everything together added up to 1.50". Parts of Iowa, especially out west, experienced a major model bust this week, but, thankfully, today salvaged it for us. For days, models had this system stronger and farther nw, but the last-minute weaker and southeast trend benefitted us.
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This week is not looking nearly as good as it did a few days ago. The first three waves of rain will be a bust as they miss north and south. The Thursday rain could be ok, but likely not great. The weekend system may end up pretty strung out and south. Models had, unanimously, been predicting widespread 2-3+" across Iowa through the weekend, but many locations in a band through the middle of the state may struggle just to get an inch. 2023 strikes again.
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Next week's rain on the EPS. The GEFS and other models are similar. This comes from several rounds of rain, from Monday through next weekend.
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As expected, the latest drought map shows improvement where last week's heavy rain fell. The exceptional drought in the Cedar Rapids area is gone. A couple more good rain events are needed to chip away at the severe drought area.
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One can dream. 12z GFS.... deep western trough, stalled front, multiple tropical systems getting pulled in.
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Where can I find that site that has multi-day Cocorahs precip maps?
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Another 1.17" last evening/night boosted my Wed-Fri total to 3.06". This is, by far, the biggest precip event of 2023. The drought has been so bad, 3.06" easily beats any MONTH since March. Personal stations only a mile west and a few miles north of me got 4.00-4.50". We still have a long way to go to end the drought (still -10" since May), but this is a great start.
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I'm at 0.58" today (1+" only a mile west of me) and 1.89" since Wednesday. More good rain is moving in now and should total another half to one inch.
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I only got 0.22" from the cold front this morning. The rain just didn't come together in time for us. However, models show a band of heavy rain developing north of the low this evening as it moves through southeast Iowa. All models have at least one inch here. This system has been a huge bust for southern Iowa. Ottumwa is 15 inches below avg this year and they are getting nothing out of this. For a week models painted 1-3" across the entire state.
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My total is 1.24". It is unclear how much more rain we will get tomorrow. Models have really delayed the firing along the cold front. Cyclone should get another inch from that Friday morning, but I might not get much. Then, as the low moves through Iowa a secondary defo zone will fire up and drop heavy rain somewhere, but models are all over the place with that. The inch we got was much-needed, but another inch on top of that would be great.
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This is officially my first 1" rain event since early May. My total so far is about 1.15". There are some 2" totals on the north side of Cedar Rapids.
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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Some potent cells with hail have popped over here. Hail up to 1.50" has been reported. -
A low level jet is expected to fire up the warm front tonight from eastern Iowa through northern Illinois. The question is where, exactly, the heavy band will be. Some models hit Cedar Rapids while some are north.
