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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. Models are latching onto the double-barrel low scenario. Unfortunately, this GFS run pushes much of the rain west and north of me. A tropical cyclone remnant missing nw would be a kick to the gut. 12z GFS
  2. Yeah, the euro is so quick this run that Cristobal outruns the strongly-digging energy moving in from the west. It ends up with a kind of double-barrel system.
  3. 12z UK... I think a tropical remnant precip track like this would be a first for me... extremely rare.
  4. 12z UK has a 969 mb low over Lake Superior. Wow.
  5. The ICON sped up this morning. A faster motion should help get the system a bit farther nw before the front swings through.
  6. There were heavy cells dancing all over the area yesterday and overnight, but they all missed me again. My rain total is only 0.18", most of which came from a weakening band of general rain overnight.
  7. 18 straight minutes of 60 mph wind gusts at Davenport.
  8. Yeah, I'm not looking for 5" of rain or damaging hail or a tornado. A solid thunderstorm that drops 1" of rain would be great.
  9. This morning's models are tracking the low center farther southeast again, sorta acting as a tail for the cold front swinging through the region. Still, models show good precip surging northward along the front.
  10. A few minutes of hail was fun to watch, but what I want is heavy rain (with some nice lightning/thunder). I love heavy rain as much as I love heavy snow. The storm that dropped that hail on April 7th only dropped 0.09" of rain. At some point this season we'll get a real heavy downpour that lasts more than a few minutes, but it just hasn't happened yet.
  11. The Euro is much farther nw with the Cristobal low this run. Models are really deepening the system somewhere in the lakes region. No doubt the track will flop around many times as the system hangs out down in the tropics for the next few days.
  12. Meanwhile, two lines of storms both crapped out on/skipped over me overnight, leaving me with only 0.19" of rain. It's not our year, apparently.
  13. Recon just found 997 mb. The late-day visible loop certainly supports that as convection continues to congeal over the center.
  14. 91/68 in Cedar Rapids last hour (90 this hour), the first 90º day since last July.
  15. The 3k NAM drops a pretty good line into northern and even central Iowa tonight, but the HRRR appears to have Iowa capped and bone dry.
  16. It's easy to see who has been dumped on and who hasn't over the last month or two. Chicago through Michigan has been bulls-eyed. Many of the rest of of us, not so much. There is certainly no drought, but some widespread MCS action from the plains into MN/IA would be nice.
  17. I know you guys in Illinois have gotten walloped by rain systems this spring, but we haven't. We could use a good soaker today. A week from now, when Cristobal lifts through the central US, we will really need a soaker.
  18. I hope the remnants of Cristobal can track northward enough to drop some good rain here. It's too rare. You guys farther east in the subforum get this kind of thing much more often. The GFS brings it up across Iowa, but the Euro veers it east into the Ohio Valley/eastern Lakes.
  19. The latest Euro is back to taking the center of Cristobal southward, well inland, and keeping it there for 48 hours. That should do quite a bit of damage to the core. That said, the Euro actually keeps the low in the 990s until it re-emerges over water... which would be impressive.
  20. This will be an interesting system. It is certainly showing increased organization this morning. The early visible loop shows the convective blob near the center. The upper flow over the center is quite good, too.
  21. It could get rather dry around here by next week. We've already received below avg May precip. Now the Euro keeps spitting out bone dry runs.
  22. As has been the case all spring, I missed out on the heavy stuff today. I only picked up 0.27" of rain. This follows 0.03" yesterday, 0.05" Tuesday, and 0.16" Monday. For the entire week of rain I only reached 0.91". I'm going to finish May with 3.14".
  23. Next week is looking hot and humid over here. While the northeast US gets stuck under another cool trough, a strong ridge builds into the central US.
  24. Today was Cedar Rapids' first 80º day as well.