hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Cedar Rapids has stalled at 95º over the last hour. Combined with a lower dew point, the heat index is 12º less than at this time yesterday.
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Cedar Rapids is 2º ahead of yesterday (we hit 100º) and the dew point is several degrees lower than yesterday, so I'd say 100º should be easy to hit today.
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
hawkeye_wx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The Euro continues to meander some 500 mb vorticity just off the Yucatan coast over the weekend. Even though it also shows an upper ridge centered over that area, it struggles to develop anything until the energy lifts into the gulf. -
I wasn't sure Cedar Rapids would be able to hit 100º, but we did it. I am a bit disappointed the dew maxed at 79º.
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Models largely had this thing nailed a few days ago when they showed it finally organizing and tightening at the very last second before landfall. If Harold looked like this 24 hours ago, we'd be talking about a much more significant system.
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It was never able to align. The convection continues to be elongated and displaced north of the surface center. The overnight recon struggled to even close off a low center.
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We'll have to wait and see what recon finds for wind direction in the other quadrants, but it seems likely we'll have TS Franklin at 5pm.
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The morning visible loop shows that 90L has developed a closed circulation. There is some shear, so convection is trying to hold onto the east side of the center.
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By the end of the month, the average-wet first half of August will be a distant memory. There is little, if any, rain in sight.
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The Euro is showing a temp well into the 90s with a dewpoint of 80 next week across eastern Iowa.
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The front popped just in time to drop 0.25" early this morning. That should be it for rain until late in the month.
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Models had been teasing a line of rain early Friday morning, but not necessarily very robust. Instead, a good hour of thunderstorms dropped 0.96" on my yard, the best rain event since June 24th, which is when the drought really began in earnest. My August rain total is now 1.71, more than all of July. It's good we got the rain this morning because it appears the strong Sunday system may produce the good rain north of Iowa where the best dynamics are and south of Iowa where the best moisture is.
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Yes, they did. It tracked pretty far south and it was not the widespread heavy rain event that was expected. It did not help that there was no heat/instability in Iowa Sunday. I actually finished with a solid 0.72", better than most spots around here. It was a slow soak, too, so probably better than a quick 1+" from a thunderstorm.
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Maybe, maybe not. The NAM has shifted all the rain into western and southern Iowa, with nothing here at all. I pray that is overdone.
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All models have now shifted well south with the main low Sunday through Monday. I'm actually beginning to get excited for a potential much-needed heavy rain event.
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Some models have been dumping good rain on southern Wisconsin as the main low moves through. Now, however, the short-range models are trending so far south that northeast IA, southern WI, and northern IL get nothing.
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A band of 4-8 inches of rain has fallen overnight from far northeast Missouri to Burlington, IA.
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The Euro has latched onto the possible heavy rain swath through IL/IN Friday night/Saturday.
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The 12z Euro has gone slower and south with the strong wave.
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There is a disturbance in southeast Nebraska. Several models are now moving that eastward and laying down a swath of heavy rain in northern MO and southern IA and into Illinois. A few models continue it east or even southeast through Illinois while a few turn it east-northeast toward Chicago. I likely won't see a drop before Sunday. Models are split on whether my area will get anything at all this weekend. It's possible the main shortwave and front will pass east of me before storms blow up Sunday.
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I think the idea is the beetle larvae feed on turf roots, so when the weather is wet and the turf is lush, beetles thrive, but then during drought, when everything is baked and brown, there is very little for the larvae to eat so they die out.
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Summer 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The latest GEFS and EPS mean qpf for the next two weeks are the best they've been all summer for Iowa. -
There is hope for some solid rain across Iowa and Minnesota this weekend as a low slowly traverses the region.
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I hate drought, but there are two silver linings. I think I've mentioned before that drought knocks Japanese beetle numbers down to very low levels. There have been almost no beetles again this year. The other silver lining is this year's earlier drought has led to my crab apple trees being almost totally free of apple scab. I usually have trouble with bacterial leaf spot on my pepper plants, too, and I think the dryness of the foliage has helped keep the problem in check this year.
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Wow, what a month over there! People from southern MN to northern MO are begging for rain. That bad spot in northeast Missouri has received less than 2" of rain over the last 60 days.
