hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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The pressure has dropped to 989 mb. A more substantial drop will likely have to wait until tonight's dmax. -
The moistness of the core has clearly increased through the day, but the convection is still weak near the center.
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Per recon, 991 mb (12 kt wind)
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This is one of those, "If it could have acquired its current level of organization yesterday morning...", situations. Fortunately, for the Texas coast, Beryl will run out of time before it can do anything crazy.
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The newest recon pass is still finding only about a 1000 mb pressure. The work has started, but it'll still take the rest of the day and night to rebuild the core.
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It's understandable why the GFS is showing only minor strengthening before Texas landfall. Beryl was gutted by the combination of land and shear. It will have to restart from scratch.
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The 12z GFS has Beryl becoming so broad and disorganized that it is only able to get itself together at the very last minute.
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Cancun radar Mexico radar
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So Josh declined to fly to the Grenadines and missed a historic hit, but then he flew to Mexico for weakening junk?
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Models are consistently showing that it will take about 36 hours over water for Beryl to reorganize. The environment should become more favorable as Beryl slows and turns north near the Texas coast.
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Pressure is up to 972 mb, so it's weakening steadily tonight.
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The pressure is up to 968 mb.
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My first solid storm in several weeks dropped a quick 0.35" late this evening.
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The GFS has shifted northward, has the storm creeping up the Texas coast.
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The second recon pass found 965 mb with a dropsonde.
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Dropsonde says about 963 mb, so it's an 11 mb drop since the last recon report several hours ago.
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The models are all too far south with the track today. The eye of Beryl is now near the point that is due south of the Isle of Youth and west of Grand Cayman. None of the GFS, Euro, Canadian, ICON, are that far north. And, the Cayman radar shows the wnw track has not stopped.
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This evening's heavy rain event was a big bust for the Ames to Cedar Rapids corridor. The line had a break in it that passed directly over me, so I only got 0.38". My daily total is 0.92".
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Remnant light to moderate rain from the western Iowa storms dropped 0.48" here this morning. It has been quite a while since we've had a good storm.
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NHC officially says 938 mb, 155 mph.
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Recon is scheduled to be in there in only 2.5 hours from now. It should still be at/near peak. The planes are flying from St. Croix, so it's a very short flight at this point.
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Remember the days before the GOES-R satellites, when we got images every 15 minutes with a delay (and a couple times a day there was a 30+ minute break between images), and the old GOES satellites did not even give us any image below the north half of the Caribbean? Now we get a full, beautiful image every minute, in real time. GOES-R has been amazing for hurricane tracking.
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Beryl continues to strengthen as it moves out into the Caribbean. The CDO and eye are becoming more circular and crisp. The next recon plane is scheduled to be in the storm at 23:00z.
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I don't recall there being a hurricane in this far south location since Ivan in '04. It doesn't happen often. The vast majority of storms that form in the MDR lift northward away from 10N pretty quickly as they organize.
