hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Beryl's center actually moved east of north between the last two recon passes. The pressure, once again, has not changed. -
There have been several center dropsondes through the afternoon and evening, but the one at 18:49z was 989.
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The surface pressure is the same as it was six hours ago. The radar presentation continues to look pretty disheveled. As has been the case all day, a pocket of modest convection will pop up within the core, but as it rotates around, it dries up.... rinse, repeat.
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The upper level outflow is beautiful. If Beryl had a tight and moist inner core, it would be cranking.
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The process of mixing the dry air out of Beryl's inner core has been painfully slow.
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The pressure has dropped to 989 mb. A more substantial drop will likely have to wait until tonight's dmax.
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The moistness of the core has clearly increased through the day, but the convection is still weak near the center.
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Per recon, 991 mb (12 kt wind)
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This is one of those, "If it could have acquired its current level of organization yesterday morning...", situations. Fortunately, for the Texas coast, Beryl will run out of time before it can do anything crazy.
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The newest recon pass is still finding only about a 1000 mb pressure. The work has started, but it'll still take the rest of the day and night to rebuild the core.
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It's understandable why the GFS is showing only minor strengthening before Texas landfall. Beryl was gutted by the combination of land and shear. It will have to restart from scratch.
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The 12z GFS has Beryl becoming so broad and disorganized that it is only able to get itself together at the very last minute.
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Cancun radar Mexico radar
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So Josh declined to fly to the Grenadines and missed a historic hit, but then he flew to Mexico for weakening junk?
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Models are consistently showing that it will take about 36 hours over water for Beryl to reorganize. The environment should become more favorable as Beryl slows and turns north near the Texas coast.
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Pressure is up to 972 mb, so it's weakening steadily tonight.
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The pressure is up to 968 mb.
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My first solid storm in several weeks dropped a quick 0.35" late this evening.
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The GFS has shifted northward, has the storm creeping up the Texas coast.
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The second recon pass found 965 mb with a dropsonde.
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Dropsonde says about 963 mb, so it's an 11 mb drop since the last recon report several hours ago.
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The models are all too far south with the track today. The eye of Beryl is now near the point that is due south of the Isle of Youth and west of Grand Cayman. None of the GFS, Euro, Canadian, ICON, are that far north. And, the Cayman radar shows the wnw track has not stopped.
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This evening's heavy rain event was a big bust for the Ames to Cedar Rapids corridor. The line had a break in it that passed directly over me, so I only got 0.38". My daily total is 0.92".
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Remnant light to moderate rain from the western Iowa storms dropped 0.48" here this morning. It has been quite a while since we've had a good storm.
