Snowpack makes a big difference. This morning northern Iowa was 15-25 below. Southern Iowa was near 0. Cedar Rapids hit -9 with a few inches on the ground.
I'd give this winter a D. We are not terribly below avg snow, but it has been a nickel & dimer winter, and most of the snow has been at night. There has been no real big snow chance. It's just a very blah winter outside of the pre-Xmas blizzard (only a few inches).
With the evening band of snow failing to materialize, after being forecasted by every model, my storm total is likely to be only 2.0". This was a pretty big stinker. The south models (I'm looking at you Canadian and Euro) were awful.
Kind of a stinker over here. The main band only dropped 1.9" in my yard. The tail might drop another half inch later. I finally got into a band with a solid rate this morning, but it lasted about ten minutes. The south models (Canadian, Euro) were wrong for Iowa.
This band of snow pushing through Cedar Rapids this morning is not even moderate. The flakes are fairly small and the rate is meh. I just measured 0.8" and radar shows the back edge approaching quickly.
The 00z GFS nudged north as well. The south edge in Iowa may be razor sharp. The Chicago area at least gets a late influx of moisture as the wave reaches them, which spreads the love a bit.
A few of the models overdid the snow here, on the nw edge. I only got 0.6". The trailing energy dropping in from the north now may also produce its snow a bit farther east. I might get another 0.5" tonight.
The 00z Euro has the upper energy digging southward into Iowa pulling some moisture back northwestward through cyclone and into northeast Iowa. Models have been teasing this a bit, but it comes and goes. It wasn't there on the 12z Euro.
I received 1.1". Models never agreed, but I got about the average of all of them. The wet Euro from a couple days ago was very wrong, but so were the bone-dry CAMs.
Models have this upper low dipping across the Mexico border. That's simply too far south for Iowa. We need this to move east across NM and into the TX panhandle.
Unsurprisingly, the 00z Euro did pull back a bit from its 18z run. However, it still has a decent, light event. I'd like to get some insulation on the ground before the cold moves in. I'd take 2".
The 18z Euro suddenly greatly increased the band of snow up through Cedar Rapids. We went from 1" on the 12z to 3+" on the 18z. The 18z H5 maps show a sharper wave over my area, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's just a one-run blip. Other models are much drier.