hawkeye_wx
-
Posts
6,360 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
-
The drying trend from the east on the models continues. The great lakes ridge is becoming stronger every run.
-
The model trend for this weekend into early next week is bad. There is now unanimous agreement that blocking will win and this system will hit a brick wall over Iowa/Minnesota. Those juiced-up Euro runs are long gone. The GEFS and EPS qpf mean have really dried out from Cedar Rapids to Minneapolis, with nothing east of there. 2023 just keeps on giving.
-
We added 0.26" last night, making yesterday's event somewhat decent (0.42").
-
Meanwhile, the GFS has removed all rain this weekend into early next week because of a blocking ridge, and most recent Canadian runs have shown the blocking as well. It's too volatile to count on anything at this point.
-
It's a complicated, blocky pattern and models are showing wild fluctuations from run to run, but, overall, it's looking up for Iowa at least. The new op Euro stalls the upper low over our western subforum area and would be ideal... inches of rain over several days. The EPS qpf mean, however, only has 1.25-1.50" through the period, though, which means there are also plenty of drier ensemble members, so a lot can change.
-
Nope. 0.16" in my gauge. The best rain split north and south of Cedar Rapids. The entire spring and summer rain season has been an absolute dumpster fire. May-Sep 2023 is now drier than May-Sep 2012. We are now 12 inches of rain below avg during that period. There is hope for some actual good rain this weekend, but I won't believe it until I see it in my gauge.
-
I'm pumped for tonight's 0.10" of rain with a few rumbles of thunder. Most models show most of the rain will be north and east of Cedar Rapids.
-
Small, slow-moving lows sure like dumping on Chicagoland this summer.
-
As most models suggested, we got nothing out of this front. The next week looks dry. It's amazing how difficult it is to get rain this year.
-
Summer 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The GFS is still solid, but the Euro has reversed the positive trend and is going backward. The Euro is now trying to cut off a big low over the southeast US and also the Rockies/plains, with a blocking ridge forming over the lakes that does not allow much moisture to get into our region through day ten. It's giving me a flashback to our awful spring pattern. -
Summer 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I'm really liking the model trend for late in the month. For weeks, the op GFS has been mostly bone dry across Iowa and surrounding areas, and it has been correct. Recent runs, however, have become much wetter across the region, beyond week one, with 2-3" in spots. The GEFS and EPS mean continue to gradually moisten up, region-wide, as well.- 113 replies
-
- 10
-
-
Only 0.35" of rain overnight, at the low end of the model range. Now, it's back to bone dry for the next two weeks.
-
What the f'ing heck is going on with the models and tonight's wave? The Euro has flipped flopped several times now. Last night it went more bullish and north than ever, dropping 1.7" here. This morning it's right back south and only 0.30" here, now the driest of all models. The ensemble mean is flopping around, too. This is stupid.
-
Models are struggling with this wave. The Euro has generally been one of the more bullish models, but it has been all over the place. Yesterday's 12z run mostly took Cedar Rapids out of it, but the new 00z run is the most bullish, yet, with a swath of rain through Cedar Rapids of well over an inch. The GFS and other models have also become more bullish overnight. After this wave, models are very dry into late September, so we really need this.
-
The pressure is up to 940 mb this morning, and the wind is down some. Lee is no longer a cat 5. The NHC mentioned mentioned some possible sw shear.
-
The final recon dropsonde says ~925 mb.
-
Extreme drought has expanded across east-central Iowa. A couple spots of exceptional drought have popped in se MN and sw WI.
-
928 mb per dropsonde.... darn low, but borderline cat 5 pressure. Typically, 920 mb is where you get into cat 5 territory.
-
With a flight wind at 145 kts, it doesn't make sense the SFMR is 157 kts.
-
Sorry, but Rita, at 897 mb in the Gulf of Mexico, had the best appearance of any hurricane I've ever seen. It was perfect. The temp inside the eye was 31º, I think, and the dew point was 0º. I still have satellite photos and the vortex message saved on an old hard drive. At ~931 mb, Lee is not even close.
-
The SFMR wind was even 139 kts (159 mph) in the sw quad.
-
There is still plenty of room for the satellite appearance to improve. Once the pressure gets down into the low 900s, the eye will become perfectly circular and the CDO will become uniformly thick with a distinct outer edge. Lee is nowhere near that, yet. Hurricane Jova, yesterday, had a very crisp, circular, core appearance.
-
Recon planes are almost always scheduled to arrive at the center of tropical cyclones within four time ranges.... 2330z-0000z, 0530z-0600z, 1130z-1200z, and 1730z-1800z. So, the new recon plane should be in the center of Lee in about one hour from now (2345z).
-
It's hot today, but there's a huge difference between 95 with a dew of 80 (last heat wave) and 95 with a dew of 58. A couple hours ago I was outside for a good ten minutes in the hot sun and I didn't even begin to sweat.
-
It feels like this is never going to end. This summer will get a big fat F grade from me (edit: maybe a D because there has been plenty of pleasant weather). We haven't had a month since April in which we received more than 50% of avg precip. If this latest Euro forecast pans out, we will have gone a month will <0.10" of rain.
