hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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A new recon plane is about to take off, should get in there just in time.
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Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago. Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit. Perhaps Ian has reached its max.
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139 kts flight level, 101 kts SFMR in the ene eyewall, the weakest part on radar, so the numbers makes sense. 937 mb, officially, per recon
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Second plane just found 143 kts flight level, 137 kts SFMR on the west side.
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The other plane just found 130 kts flight level, 111 kts SFMR on the "strong" east side, so the west side is stronger at the moment.
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137 kts SFMR in the west quad ("weak" side)..... major yikes.
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The pressure rose another 2 mb, to 954 mb, per the latest recon pass.
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There is still intense convection, with lightning, in the inner eyewall, so it will take awhile to complete the cycle.
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What I wonder is, with dry air from the trough gradually getting pulled into south and east sides as the storm approaches Florida, will the outer eyewall be able to strengthen enough to take over and finish the replacement cycle.
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Recon definitely found two wind maximums, with max wind overall less than earlier.
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It just spent several hours experiencing surface friction while moving over Cuba. The pressure will drop back down as it moves out over the open ocean.
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Satellite looks great, but the southern eyewall did just move back over water in the last 20 minutes. The pressure should respond once the inner core is full over water again and the friction is gone.
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This is a great site to follow the radar. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX/loop.html
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Ian made it across Cuba as well as it could have, but it still lost about 15 mb. Given the great structure, it shouldn't be difficult to re-deepen to where it was.
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I was shocked when I saw the recon map. I've never seen them do a center fix over any land. Halfway through Cuba the extrapolated pressure is 947 mb.... pretty impressive.
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The current recon plant's final pass found 961 mb. There has been a bit of a bend/wobble to the nw while this plane has been out there. Every bit of movement to the west of north matters for the long-term track. The 18z Euro moved into Cuba due north of where the center is now.
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Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on? Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core. Edit: The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.
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Accounting for a 21 kt wind, the latest recon center dropsonde measured 962 mb.
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Regarding storm surge in Tampa Bay, how much of a difference would it make if Ian's center is 50 miles offshore vs 100 miles offshore?
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The satellite presentation is impressive this morning, quite a change from 24 hours ago.
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The new recon pass suggests the pressure is about the same as it was when the last plane left hours ago.
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I've been watching the COD meso loops all day. It's a nice site.
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Oddly, the extrapolated pressure on the new recon pass is several mb higher than the first one. The center also seems to have jumped west.
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The Euro only maxes the intensity at 969 mb this run, a good 10-15 mb weaker than last night.
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Because there is very little convection over the center, you can now see the well-defined surface vortex on the visible loop. It just needs a blob of intense convection to fire over it.
