hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Recon is finally finding an actual surface center, but now it's struggling to produce core convection in a light shear environment.
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Recon is finding the surface flow pretty similar to what it was early Saturday. There is a weak center at 14.6N, south of all the convection. Ian still has a lot of work to do before it can strengthen.
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Recon just made the first pass through the convection and found more garbage at the surface. They will have to look farther west.
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The mid-level swirl from earlier convection is making it look better than it is. So far this evening the convection has been ok, but nothing impressive. Maybe it will blow up more overnight. Recon will be in there shortly to try to find a surface center. It's possible recon will find nothing more than a weak mess like this morning. We'll know in a couple hours.
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Recon finding another wind shift wnw of the first one. Maybe it is the same one.
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Recon is finding only weak slop at the surface, certainly no well-defined center... a good reason why models are not ramping up the organization til Sunday.
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This run barely makes it to the coast before curving back north along the coast. If it trends any farther west it will remain over water, like other models are showing, and weaken.
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The Euro still has rapid deepening on approach, at least until the last few hours. It turns nne toward landfall just before the dry air rushing in from the nw can get into the system.
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Recon just found another weak surface center/wind shift down below 13ºN. It's a bit of a mess at the surface.
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Yeah, but look at what happens once the dry air gets pulled all the way around the storm. By the time it hits land the core is gone... totally dried out.
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Yep. The dry air gets pulled into the circulation and chokes the storm. It hits the Florida peninsula over 50 mb weaker than it was over the central gulf.
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The GFS is powerful up through the halfway point in the gulf, but at that point a big dump of dry air is about to crash down into the northern gulf region. Expect significant weakening.
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The GFS is so far west it doesn't even track the center over Cuba anymore.... goes through the Yucatan channel, out into the open gulf, where it will certainly miss the trough and slow way down.
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The overnight convection that blew up west to well west of the center seems to have messed up the surface circulation a bit. The center yesterday was up at 15ºN. Now recon is finding a weak surface center way down at 13.2ºN. All the convection is still nw to well nw of this weak center. It will take a while to organize, despite the much less hostile shear environment it has moved into. All those farther northeast Euro tracks had this organizing north of where it is now.
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The GFS slows Ian to a crawl out over the gulf. By the time it finally moves inland, north of Tampa, there is not much left of it.
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The ICON moves Ian into sw Florida and stalls it.
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Hmm... I think it's a bit of a stretch to call this a tropical storm.
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The 18z Euro is nearly identical to the 12z... just a hair east and weaker... tracks directly over Grand Cayman.
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Euro begins to phase with the eastern trough... a nasty storm for the Carolinas. I don't think any of the other models are doing this, though. If the hurricane is slower getting up there or the trough pulls out a bit faster, there won't be any phase or Carolina storm.
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The 12z Euro would be worst case... the perfect track for strength and impact... spends a bit more time over the Caribbean, allowing it to strengthen more, passes over the thin part of Cuba, strengthens significantly over the Florida straights, turns into Florida before it can weaken. Charlie-esque.
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It's possible that if this storm does not hit sw Florida, instead remaining farther west over the gulf, it may not even hit land as a hurricane.
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The GFS is going to weaken significantly after 120 hours with the storm well out over the gulf, crawling along, as shear and dry air come crashing down on it.
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The Euro has jumped a good bit back southwest in the nw Caribbean over the last two runs after jumping northeast yesterday.
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Models are pretty consistently predicting notable weakening if this storm gets into the northern gulf and starts sucking in the dry air behind the big trough. The 18z GFS shows the storm really collapsing over the last 36 hours prior to landfall.
