hawkeye_wx

The SPC has moderate all the way back to Sioux Falls, but models are struggling to develop convection west of Cedar Rapids.

Today was going to be our hottest day of the year, but a disturbance moving across Iowa has spread clouds over much of the area. The result is we are only at 90º/72º.

The drought map does not make sense. Over at least the last 30 days, much more rain has fallen in southern Iowa and southern Wisconsin than has fallen here in Cedar Rapids. I've barely received an inch. We've been missed by nearly everything, while Madison has been soaked several times. However, the drought map shows Madison and southeast Iowa in extreme drought while we are only in moderate drought. Even going back 60 or 90 days, we have not had any more rain than the extreme drought areas.

It's odd they broad-brushed east-central Iowa with a drought downgrade from severe to moderate. A couple counties, through Cedar Rapids, missed out on much of the rain and have received less than an inch in July. The drought here hasn't improved at all. Typically, they do a good job showing small wet and dry holes on the map.

A tiny cell, very early this morning, produced lightning/thunder and dropped 0.17" of rain. That boosts my July total to a whopping 0.99".

Dry, dry, dry for the rest of the month.

It looks dry here. The latest GFS/Euro show <0.50" over the next ten days.

I'm sitting at only 0.75" in July.

Yeah, pretty much. My fear about the heavy cells on the southern edge of the MCS dropping too far south panned out. The northern end of two bands of heavy rain barely got me, but they only last a few minutes each. I ended with 0.66". The northern part of my county got only half of that. Well to the north, over northeast Iowa, the MCS's comma head dumped more heavy rain. Now I get to wait another two weeks for the next chance of five minutes of heavy rain.

Cyclone has managed to get another inch of rain overnight before I've seen any. I really hope all the heavy stuff moving in from the west doesn't suddenly crash south into the juicier air, leaving me with just a few hours of light rain. That's what I'm afraid of.

Except the front has pushed southward, into far southern Iowa, this evening (dew point has dropped here), and now the models are adjusting the MCS south as well. The model hot spot is now west-central to south-central Iowa. Hopefully, we can get something.

As we get closer to the action, the HRRR is looking increasingly good for much of my area. I hope this is fairly accurate.

Only 0.33" here since June 25th. We badly need to get something decent Wednesday morning.

Models are still all over the place with tonight's MCS action. I could get an inch or nothing at all.

Models are now tracking the MCS farther south, potentially leaving my area dry again, because of course they are. ... and this might be it for another week or two.

Models are strongly suggesting an MCS will form in NE/SD Tuesday and track east-southeast through Wednesday.

Since June 25th, I've had five rain events.... 0.02, 0.17, 0.05, 0.04, 0.05". That little amount of rain doesn't even get the mulch wet under trees and plants.

After our inch of rain two weeks ago the lawn greened up somewhat. The green has vanished following two weeks without any real rain. The sprinkler goes back out Friday just to prevent a couple areas from getting worse.

Unfortunately, this active pattern is playing out like the op Euro has been predicting. The storm train will continue to dump rain from the central plains to Missouri and Arkansas, but up here there will be little to nothing. We got the nice one inch of rain on June 24th, but instead of being the beginning of a change to a wetter pattern, it was just a one-time tease. Today's rain chance is pretty low and next weekend's event is gone. The next chance is a week away, yet again. It's nice there is no heat, but it has been a frustrating and boring spring/summer.

There is good model agreement that the midweek frontal passage will be timed very poorly for eastern Iowa. There is a good chance much of my area will get little or no rain from it.

Chicago low says, "You think you're done with me? Maybe I'll just back westward into the city again and keep dumping."

Mother Nature could not have timed the flooding rain worse for the NASCAR race today.

I only got enough rain to wet the pavement this weekend. The real rain was north yesterday and southeast today.

Now 80 mph wind is being reported from the line.

74 mph wind from the potent bow echo moving through Keokuk.