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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It appears to be all-systems-go for permanent spring once this huge upper low lifts out. One more lobe of Canadian chill wants to dig down behind this one, but as the big California upper low ejects east the southwesterly flow ahead of it wins out and pushes all the chill back up into Canada... hopefully, for good. Next week looks more active, too. We could use some storms. -
It is still gusting well into the 40s, but our expected mostly cloudy day has turned into full sun instead as the atmospheric moisture and cloud shield has pulled away to the east. The full sun is probably aiding the high wind today.
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It is 50º with only a few sprinkles here. Considering this is the worst day of the chilly stretch, it could be a lot worse.
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I'm feeling pretty good about the upcoming pattern here on the west edge of the sub-forum. Sure, it's lousy today and for another couple days, but midweek and beyond it looks much better. I will be hitting the garden centers starting Wednesday.
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We were expecting low 70s, but the warm front never got up here and then sank back south. We peaked at about 66º and fell into the 50s by evening. I'm hoping for a good soaking tonight into Thursday morning.
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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
A couple severe-warned cells are passing through eastern Iowa this morning, dropping hail up to 1". The hail passed only a mile or so to my nw. -
Up to 8 inches fell in northeast Iowa. As models predicted, a corridor just east to northeast of La Crosse got 15-20 inches. I only received a couple tenths on sw edge of the precip shield.
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The GFS is nothing like the Euro for Minnesota.
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The Euro has the morning low well down in the 20s Tuesday morning. All my shrubs are budding and about to flower, so I'll have to do a lot of covering with sheets.
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12z Euro... It's unlikely to be anything close to this much, but it's a big increase from recent runs.
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The front already moved through my area. I don't think the forecasted 70s will pan out. Models have mostly shifted the heavier precip, and snow, up into Wisconsin. I was hoping we could get a good soaking, but that's fading a bit.
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Our high temp has been 6º to 7º above the Euro forecast every day since last weekend.
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The models are trending slower and stronger with the weekend system. That's good, because it means a much better soaking rain event across my area. I've only received 1.77" of precip since March 1st. It's getting a bit dry, especially following this week's dry warmth. As the system strengthens and wraps up, we could get a bit of snow as well.
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The mild to warm temp is great. However, a bit of humidity would be nice because the air is very dry.
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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The long-range op Euro is just ridiculous... 70s and gorgeous, ad infinitum. -
Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I'm really looking forward to the extended warm period. I just hope we don't flip and go into the freezer later in the month. -
SPC has removed the moderate risk area in our sub. It's looking like a bust for much of southeast Iowa, including Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. We weren't even able to get out of the 50s as the warm front stalled well south.
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Peoria is about to get some nasty hail.
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There's a nasty storm southeast of Des Moines, all by itself, along the warm front, that is looking increasingly hooky. Update: It is now tornado-warned. The latest radar image suggests a possible debris ball.
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There's no sign of anything going up in between the central Iowa storms and the northeast Missouri storms. Models have, generally, not been very bullish for my area.
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He's back. Earlier this morning he posted he works today til 4pm and then may chase.
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I just realized the core of this powerful storm is hitting Cyclone's house as I type. He's probably getting golfball to baseball size hail right now. He may be at work, though. I hope he doesn't get too much damage.
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90 mph wind gust at the Quad Cities airport!
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3.00" hail in Davenport, 80 mph wind in Moline... pretty impressive for 10am.
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Now 2.50" hail is being reported in Davenport. Yikes.