hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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I'm currently at 3.2". I have a shot at 4" when the lighter backwash pulls through.
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But the dew is 24º, though. The temp will crash. I was also concerned about the 37º temp this morning, but 90 minutes after the precip started I had 1.8" of snow on the ground. It began piling up immediately.
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My total is up to 1.8 after a nice burst of heavy snow. The rate has lessened quite a bit. The temp was 37 this morning, but quickly fell to 33 when the heavy snow moved in. The temp is slowly rising again with the lighter rate.
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A few inches is still looking like a decent expectation here. I doubt the warning area in Iowa will verify.
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The snow rates are not good and the temperature is garbage. The temp is in the upper 30s in the morning and falls to the mid 30s during the snow.
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Models continue to be all over the place regarding exactly where the best totals (and dry pockets) will be.... northeast Iowa, southern Iowa, through me. In general, the drying has continued. This is not a strong low with heavy banding parking over the area. Models suggest the heavier rates will last a couple hours and then it'll just be light snow. Combined with iffy temps, in March, I think the safe bet is around 3" here.
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While there has been a general weakening/drying trend across the board, the Euro is way drier than all other models (1/3 to 1/2). Look at this.... the Euro vs GFS, only two days away from the event. Seriously, wtf?!?
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This morning's 12z GFS was way too amped. It is now much more similar to the other models. Snow depth change map... looks like a solid March concrete event.
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This morning's farther-south GFS is good for my area, but the various snow total maps are wildly different. 10:1 -> 12.3" Kuchera -> 10.1" Depth change -> 4.7" It will likely be more concrete, so the depth change map is likely the most accurate.
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Chanhassen: 82.6" Dang, what a winter up there. It's going even higher later in the week, too
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Minneapolis wins again. 4-7 inches has fallen on the west and sw side of the metro area.
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I just got my third brief thunderstorm and second round of pea size hail. It looks like I finished with about 0.20" of rain.
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A tiny thundershower just dropped some pea size hail here.
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I'm just very ready for a wet summer again. I'm tired of the la nina drought summer garbage.
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The GFS is undoing yesterday's nw leap. The op run no longer even touches Iowa. The upper low just digs too far south and takes too wide of a turn northeast to be of any good for me. I hope someone can get something decent out of this.
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The 10:1 map shows nearly twice as much snow in Cedar Rapids than the Kuchera map does. That means super wet concrete snow.
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GDPS & UK are well southeast, but now the Euro comes in farther nw than any previous run.
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Yeah, it'll probably end up around the average track and mostly miss me to the southeast. Honestly, whichever way it goes is fine considering it's nearly spring.
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There are a lot of Iowa hits in there.
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A low somewhere in that cluster in wc IL would be just fine.
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Until yesterday, it had been 13-17 years since the last "ice storm warning" across east-central Iowa. As far as I can remember, we have not had significant ice since December 2007. It is just very difficult to get significant freezing rain here. If there is a tricky battlezone in the atmosphere, we are much more likely to get sleet or plain rain.
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My gauge only contained 0.27" of precip. With a marginal temp, it just wasn't enough to cause major issues. I noticed the wind factor earlier today. The driveway, where the wind was blocked by the house, was mostly ok with just patchy slick spots. However, when I walked to the entrance to the patio behind the house, where the wind was free to blow through, the pavement suddenly turned to solid ice.
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The event has been pretty meager here. There was a very thin glaze this morning, but it never got any worse. There was never any obvious ice on the trees. Even if it was colder, there just hasn't been much precip. The deep moist plume missed east, so we've only received scattered light showers.
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It's getting icy here. The precip has been very light so far, though. The plume of deep moisture is mostly veering to my east.
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I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain. I'm fine with that. We got our good storm last week. I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago.
