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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    Models continue to be bullish about heavy rain through Iowa Friday-Saturday as a front stalls out over the area and a low rides up the front. A band of 2-4" is possible somewhere around here.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    The core is finally beginning to tighten up a bit. A nice ball of convection is riding west with the center. It appears the core will barely track north of the Honduras coast. Perhaps that will hold the strength down.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Recon is finding a weak system with a broad center tonight.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    My October rain total is 1.75".
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Looking at the Cocorahs reports, it appears the middle and northern Chicago area underperformed. Most stations failed to even reach an inch.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    We ended up in a pretty good spot over here. I received 1.39" later yesterday. The first few tenths fell from a pretty heavy shower, with wind, the heaviest I've seen in many weeks. My 36-hr total is 1.50". It is our biggest rain event since June.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    The very hard freeze last week, followed by heat, really accelerated the leaf change. Before the freeze, a few of my trees and my neighbor's maple tree remained stubbornly green. Since then, all those trees turned (as much brown as color, unfortunately), and my three trees have suddenly dropped most of their leaves. The area oak trees have turned quickly. It really looks like fall now.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    This afternoon was quite pleasant... mid 70s, mostly cloudy, breezy, with a bit of humidity.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    It appears we will finally have a couple solid bands of rain lifting through the region Monday/Tuesday. Models are showing 0.75-1.25" for my area, maybe more for Chicagoland. The last real rain here was five weeks ago. The last >0.75" event was August 1st.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    We reached the mid 80s this afternoon. It was actually a bit warm. I would prefer mid 70s.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro often under-forecasts highs on strong warm advection days, but this morning's run (74º) was way off.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    Today, the first warm day, was expected to reach the upper 70s, but Cedar Rapids has made it to 83º. Three mornings ago CR had a record low of 16º.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    It dropped to about 20º in the city this morning. The Cedar Rapids airport dropped to 16º, breaking the old record by 3º.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    12+ inches... very difficult to achieve here.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    The wind over-performed here yesterday when the strong front moved through. The Cedar Rapids airport gusted to 54 mph.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    A thin line of storms fired near Cedar Rapids early this morning. I received 0.23" and heard several rumbles. At this point in the season, any rumble could be the last until spring.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    Julia is getting that ready-to-take-off comma-shaped core this evening, but it's nearly out of time.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    Probably about 30º here this morning... 28º out at the airport.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, it's trying to form a CDO, but convection continues to be pushed south as it attempts to wrap around to the north side.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Looking at the west models, the point they really went wrong is Cuba. They had Ian continuing nnw across Cuba and even for a while in the gulf. Instead, Ian turned east of north as soon as it hit Cuba and it never stopped moving nne from there. I wonder why models could not see that turn.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    Models don't show Julia doing much for the next day or so while it's being sheared. Much of the strengthening occurs as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    We should get our first light freeze tonight. I should be able to save part of the garden with sheets and row covers. Regarding the expanding drought, it feels like it will never rain again. This is Dubuque's driest start to autumn on record and many places aren't far behind. Every time I check the models it's a continuation of the endless dryness.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    It swung a bit farther west in the nw Caribbean, but ended up in the same location.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    It turned out that some of those early worst-case Euro runs from days ago, which showed Ian turning up into sw Florida, exiting into the Atlantic, then phasing with the tail end of the eastern US trough and moving into the Carolinas as a strong system, were totally correct.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Officially 935 mb, per recon dropsonde.
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