hawkeye_wx

12z Euro... at least it's no worse for me than the last run. I'm sure DVN does not want to issue a warning and then cancel it 12 hours later for the second consecutive storm, but there is not much justification for the winter storm warning from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque now.

The 12z HRRR is way south and weak, a continuation of the trend. The Euro is going the same direction. This may be the second consecutive winter storm warning here that busts bad.

The op GFS is on drugs and has been for several runs. It's way too wet, and also a good bit north of the GEFS mean. Here is the much more rational GEFS.

The Canadian has been MIA so far, but has finally joined the party.

The UK and Euro have juiced back up this evening as the energy is not as flat as on this morning's runs. Madison is really on a roll.

There's a pretty big model spread regarding how robust this system will be. The Euro is still showing a healthy wave, but other models are trending flatter and strung out.

Wow, look at that massive February deformation snow band!!! My yard is about 5 miles inside the nw edge.

My final snow total is 1.8 inches. After the first 1.5 inches, it struggled to accumulate faster than it melted. It just didn't snow heavily enough here. I can't imagine trying to shovel 7-9 inches of this stuff. Just 1.5 inches is plenty heavy.

I don't think so. Radar shows that a couple heavy bands pivoted over that area this morning. On the other weather forum, a guy in the Dubuque area is reporting 7-8" on his driveway.

The Dubuque airport is reporting 9 inches of snow. Other reports around Dubuque are 4-5".

I'm at about 1.6", so it's not a total bust. I was hoping for an hour of consistent heavy snow at some point, but that's not in the cards. At least it's some decent snow during daylight. A day or two ago local mets were talking about strong wind, but that has not panned out.

I am over an inch, but the snow rate is very inconsistent. There have been a few real nice bursts with big flakes, but they are brief. We still have little pockets of mix moving through, which tanks the snow rate. It's snowing more heavily down in Iowa City where the stronger precip band is.

I picked up 0.40" of rain overnight. It just switched to snow, so the models at least nailed the timing of that. The problem is we are at the nw edge of the precip shield, so how much snow we get will depend on the stronger precip holding over us.

My final call is one inch or less.

Unbelievably, the 00z NAM and 3kNAM both just totally cancelled the storm for Cedar Rapids and Dubuque.

There is a winter storm warning for Cedar Rapids. This is what the HRRR is predicting as the storm is about to start. Given the warm, wet ground this is probably the max we will get. I'm going with only 1-3" in Cedar Rapids.

All southeast models came back nw, at least a bit, this morning. The totals should probably be cut back even more than Kuchera because the ground will be warmish and very wet/soggy when it begins to snow. The bottom inch of snow will turn to slush. 12z Euro

This morning's trend has been positive for eastern Iowa. The models that were fading southeast have backed up nw a bit and solidified the defo zone precip.

The Euro has been the most bullish model with both total precip and snow in Iowa. Tonight's run pulled the rug out, cutting everything by at least half. I'm really getting tired of being teased by models this winter.

Man, another system, more model frustration. Tonight, half the models show little, if any, precip in much of the Iowa winter storm watch that was just issued this afternoon. The GFS still hits my area hard, but other models are east and weak with the backside precip. I don't know what the NWS is going to do with the forecast.

Definitely. The 18z Euro was a bit southeast, then the NAMs shifted way east. The HRRR has always been on the east edge and hasn't budged. The western part of the watch area in Iowa is being deserted by the models.

DMX and DVN have issued a winter storm watch for central to northeast Iowa.

12z Euro is super juiced, with a very heavy burst of snow Thursday morning. Other models show considerably less precip and snow. I'm still thinking 3" of snow in my yard, at most. This stuff will be concrete. DVN is thinking a 4-6:1 ratio.

I saw a bit of lightning to the southwest this evening as a line of weak cells approached Cedar Rapids, but the lightning fizzled and I got a ten-second shower.

The 00z Euro did become stronger and snowier compared to the 12z run. Of course, this will be very wet, low-ratio snow, and if the Euro is too cold by a degree this forecast will bust. This is the snowiest of all the models this evening. I would err on the low side. DVN, this afternoon, said not much snow south of Waterloo-Dubuque. That's certainly possible. I can't help but get a bit angry because we finally get a rare, strengthening low, loaded with moisture, tracking from St. Louis to Chicago (maybe once every few years track) and there is no f'ing cold air.... in early February. 19 times out of 20 this is a big snowstorm.