hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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This morning's 12z GFS was way too amped. It is now much more similar to the other models. Snow depth change map... looks like a solid March concrete event.
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This morning's farther-south GFS is good for my area, but the various snow total maps are wildly different. 10:1 -> 12.3" Kuchera -> 10.1" Depth change -> 4.7" It will likely be more concrete, so the depth change map is likely the most accurate.
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Chanhassen: 82.6" Dang, what a winter up there. It's going even higher later in the week, too
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Minneapolis wins again. 4-7 inches has fallen on the west and sw side of the metro area.
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I just got my third brief thunderstorm and second round of pea size hail. It looks like I finished with about 0.20" of rain.
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A tiny thundershower just dropped some pea size hail here.
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I'm just very ready for a wet summer again. I'm tired of the la nina drought summer garbage.
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The GFS is undoing yesterday's nw leap. The op run no longer even touches Iowa. The upper low just digs too far south and takes too wide of a turn northeast to be of any good for me. I hope someone can get something decent out of this.
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The 10:1 map shows nearly twice as much snow in Cedar Rapids than the Kuchera map does. That means super wet concrete snow.
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GDPS & UK are well southeast, but now the Euro comes in farther nw than any previous run.
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Yeah, it'll probably end up around the average track and mostly miss me to the southeast. Honestly, whichever way it goes is fine considering it's nearly spring.
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There are a lot of Iowa hits in there.
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A low somewhere in that cluster in wc IL would be just fine.
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Until yesterday, it had been 13-17 years since the last "ice storm warning" across east-central Iowa. As far as I can remember, we have not had significant ice since December 2007. It is just very difficult to get significant freezing rain here. If there is a tricky battlezone in the atmosphere, we are much more likely to get sleet or plain rain.
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My gauge only contained 0.27" of precip. With a marginal temp, it just wasn't enough to cause major issues. I noticed the wind factor earlier today. The driveway, where the wind was blocked by the house, was mostly ok with just patchy slick spots. However, when I walked to the entrance to the patio behind the house, where the wind was free to blow through, the pavement suddenly turned to solid ice.
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The event has been pretty meager here. There was a very thin glaze this morning, but it never got any worse. There was never any obvious ice on the trees. Even if it was colder, there just hasn't been much precip. The deep moist plume missed east, so we've only received scattered light showers.
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It's getting icy here. The precip has been very light so far, though. The plume of deep moisture is mostly veering to my east.
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I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain. I'm fine with that. We got our good storm last week. I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago.
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My storm total snow is 5.8 inches. I'm sure there was a bit of settling over the last 90 minutes that prevented the remaining light snow from boosting the total up to 6 inches. Overall, a solid storm, easily the biggest of the season. The four-hour lull in the middle was a bummer, but there were pretty heavy rates early and late, all viewable during good daylight. The wind was a factor, but never too terrible. There was moderate drifting on the driveway.
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The defo band moving through eastern Iowa is awesome. It's dumping fatties at 2"/hr... as beautiful of a snow as we ever get here. It sucks that it's so transient, but at least I got to see it during daylight. My total has quickly jumped to about 5.5 inches.
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I posted almost four hours ago I had 3.7" after some heavy bursts first thing this morning. Well.... four hours later and I STILL have 3.7". The snow parted like the red sea and it has struggled to reform. No models predicted any kind of a break, let alone FOUR hours. It's not helping that the wind is blowing already-fallen snow around the yard. If the central Iowa snow ever gets here, I may only get another inch out of this. What a joke.
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I'm sitting at 3.7" thanks to the heaviest rates of the season on and off this morning. We are currently in a lull, waiting for the upper low and defo zone to move in.
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A band of heavy snow streaked northeast through Iowa City overnight and dropped 2-4+" of snow. Meanwhile, I did not see a single flake. I'm just now getting into good snow.
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The short-term models like the HRRR should improve within 24 hours, but so should all models. I just watch for trends on all of them.
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18z HRRR is a solid improvement for Iowa, now more in line with other models.
