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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    Models' Kuchera graphics are showing awful ratios, about 7 to 1 throughout the heavy band. DVN, on the other hand, is predicting ratios above 10 to 1. DVN has upped my area even more to 11-16". I was thinking the earlier 6-11" seemed a bit high at the top end. If Kuchera is correct, we will only get 6-9". We will need the higher ratios for DVN's forecast to verify.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    FWIW, here's the 10:1 EPS mean... pretty juiced
  3. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro's energy is too spread out and messy, can't easily wrap up into a powerful storm until it reaches the eastern lakes.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    The models are focusing the heaviest band through southeast Iowa and the Quad Cities. They are all showing high rates through Cyclone Tuesday morning. 3-hr qpf between 12z and 15z
  5. hawkeye_wx
    6-8" seems like reasonable prediction for Cedar Rapids. I'm still not buying the higher end (9-12") of the NWS/locals range.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK is back to a big hit farther northwest, like the ICON and GDPS. So far this morning the GFS is on its own with a southeast slider.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS is sliding the entire trough farther east, so the big storm can't cut until farther east. This morning's ICON and GDPS hold the trough farther west, so the storm cuts to Chicago.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    I would strongly lean toward the 7" for most. I'm surprised they put 12" as a possible high end of the range. They currently have 6-11 for Cedar Rapids. I think 5-8 is more realistic.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    Watches have gone up for my area. It's looking good for 6+".
  10. hawkeye_wx
    The nw trend on the Euro continues. Higher totals are pulling away from the lake. I'm feeling pretty good over here. Hopefully, the iffy temp won't hurt the accumulation too much.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    BRRRR
  12. hawkeye_wx
    12z EPS... much better for the lake shore than the GEFS.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    That's what I immediately noticed. The Thursday wave is much stronger this run, which totally blows up the late-week potential. Last night's run was much flatter with this wave.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro... the only gripe I have with this run is the defo zone across eastern Iowa is rather weak-looking considering there is a 978 mb low over central IL.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, our local mets have been talking down the event as well as it trended southeast. However, that will reverse today.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    There has been a significant shift/expansion nw on the GEFS mean... Cedar Rapids has gone from 3" a day ago to now 8". The op run only has 5" here, so this suggests there may be room for even more nw shift. Concurrently, the Chicagoland lakeshore has been cut back quite a bit.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    On this morning's GFS, ridging builds into the west coast region, which shoves the trough farther east. Meanwhile, the Canadian went the opposite way, anchoring the trough in the pacnw, which allows the storm to cut farther nw.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    The model trend is quite favorable for my area. The initial wave of snow to the west is inching more northeast and the main wave to the southeast is inching more northwest. The 06z Euro has Cedar Rapids up to several inches.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    FWIW, the ICON model, which seems to perform similarly to other models, also shows a similar blizzard late next week, just a bit farther north.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Wow, the GFS is spitting out a monster storm today... yowza! It's too bad all the pieces need to align perfectly to get something like this... it's like having to flip a coin ten times and get all heads.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    It's probably safe to throw the early NAM runs in the trash. The global models are much farther south with the upper low.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    The potential of the late-week storm is big. The 18z GFS 500 mb setup is phenomenal and shows what would be the greatest storm on record for Iowa. Cedar Rapids has had its worst flood ever and worst thunderstorm ever in the last fifteen years. It is way past time for a powerful blizzard.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Yesterday the Euro had this strong system hitting Minneapolis. This morning it's Oklahoma to St. Louis. Models appear to have very little grasp of this system for now.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    The Tuesday system is looking like it may be a dud for us, but late next week into next weekend looks much more promising.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    I finished with a very solid 1.00" of rain. My December total is 2.01".
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