hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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And now it's 911 mb. Such an extreme low pressure requires incredible inner core structure. Any disruption will send the pressure back up pretty quickly.
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New dropsonde pressure is 908 mb.
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The pressure is rising now (latest extrap pressure is 909 mb), and this is why. The inner eyewall is finally beginning to break up a bit.
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901 mb and 902 mb per the latest dropsondes from the two planes that just went through the eye.
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Recon is going to make one more pass before it has to fly home.
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The CDO was still a hair ragged in the nw quadrant first thing this morning, but just over the last couple hours it has become significantly more circular and uniform.
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The newest dropsonde says about 947 mb.
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A few spots in northeast Iowa and also western Iowa have bottomed out in the low 30s this morning.
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The recon plane went in one more time and found 976 mb. The track of the center has been south of east during this plane's flight.
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Recon has found no pressure drop over the last 1 hr, 16 min..... still 977 mb. This plane is now done.
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Two separate dropsondes show a pressure drop of 1 mb in the last ten minutes, now 978 mb w/ 12 kt wind.
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New dropsonde says 979 mb w/ 13 kt wind.
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The newest dropsonde says 980 mb.
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We are only getting two passes from this recon plane. The next plane should be in there this evening.
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985 mb per recon dropsonde..... 3 mb drop between passes.
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The 12z gfs track is interesting. Initially, it is farther south, close to the Yucatan like the latest Euro. However, then it doesn't just turn northeast, but north-northeast, and ends up farther north than previous runs.
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The visible loop looks very good. A nice ring of bubbly convection continues to surround the center. The next recon is on its way and should be in the eye in a couple hours. We need a moderator to clean out some of the garbage posts polluting this topic this morning.
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The 06z Euro took a big jump south, shows Milton's center almost scraping the coast of the Yucatan.
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I'm simply referring to the structural change that leads to much of the precip shifting to the northern half of the circulation.
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All models show the south half of Milton clearing out as it approaches Florida.
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I use Tropical Tidbits for the hurricane models.
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The Canadian is, very oddly, two days slower than the other models. Throw it out.
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While this system is already looking good, with persistent deep convection near the center, models really start to blow it up Sunday morning as it begins its eastward track.
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As of now, the first recon flight is not scheduled until 12z Sunday.
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Yeah, this system has come together more quickly than models and the NHC suggested/expected. It appears to already be a TD with a well-defined surface circulation and central convection.
