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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    There is a disturbance in southeast Nebraska. Several models are now moving that eastward and laying down a swath of heavy rain in northern MO and southern IA and into Illinois. A few models continue it east or even southeast through Illinois while a few turn it east-northeast toward Chicago. I likely won't see a drop before Sunday. Models are split on whether my area will get anything at all this weekend. It's possible the main shortwave and front will pass east of me before storms blow up Sunday.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    I think the idea is the beetle larvae feed on turf roots, so when the weather is wet and the turf is lush, beetles thrive, but then during drought, when everything is baked and brown, there is very little for the larvae to eat so they die out.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    The latest GEFS and EPS mean qpf for the next two weeks are the best they've been all summer for Iowa.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    There is hope for some solid rain across Iowa and Minnesota this weekend as a low slowly traverses the region.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    I hate drought, but there are two silver linings. I think I've mentioned before that drought knocks Japanese beetle numbers down to very low levels. There have been almost no beetles again this year. The other silver lining is this year's earlier drought has led to my crab apple trees being almost totally free of apple scab. I usually have trouble with bacterial leaf spot on my pepper plants, too, and I think the dryness of the foliage has helped keep the problem in check this year.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    Wow, what a month over there! People from southern MN to northern MO are begging for rain. That bad spot in northeast Missouri has received less than 2" of rain over the last 60 days.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    This evening's 0.69" of rain boosted my July total to 1.68". We need August to deliver a lot more.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    It was a nice storm here. The worst wind was to my north where the line surged eastward. I got 60+ mph from the initial outflow, which knocked out our internet. I did not see any damage around my yard. The outflow quickly pushed southward, so the rain was fairly progressive. I received 0.69". It's not the 2+ inches we need, but it's something. I'd much rather have the training storms that set up over northern Illinois.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    The HRRR and RRFS models have been iffy with convection here later. However, both models continue to quickly mix the dew point down into the 60s across the area this afternoon, which is very wrong. Dews are well into the 70s to near 80 across Iowa.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    The SPC has moderate all the way back to Sioux Falls, but models are struggling to develop convection west of Cedar Rapids.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Today was going to be our hottest day of the year, but a disturbance moving across Iowa has spread clouds over much of the area. The result is we are only at 90º/72º.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    The drought map does not make sense. Over at least the last 30 days, much more rain has fallen in southern Iowa and southern Wisconsin than has fallen here in Cedar Rapids. I've barely received an inch. We've been missed by nearly everything, while Madison has been soaked several times. However, the drought map shows Madison and southeast Iowa in extreme drought while we are only in moderate drought. Even going back 60 or 90 days, we have not had any more rain than the extreme drought areas.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    It's odd they broad-brushed east-central Iowa with a drought downgrade from severe to moderate. A couple counties, through Cedar Rapids, missed out on much of the rain and have received less than an inch in July. The drought here hasn't improved at all. Typically, they do a good job showing small wet and dry holes on the map.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    A tiny cell, very early this morning, produced lightning/thunder and dropped 0.17" of rain. That boosts my July total to a whopping 0.99".
  15. hawkeye_wx
    Dry, dry, dry for the rest of the month.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    It looks dry here. The latest GFS/Euro show <0.50" over the next ten days.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    I'm sitting at only 0.75" in July.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, pretty much. My fear about the heavy cells on the southern edge of the MCS dropping too far south panned out. The northern end of two bands of heavy rain barely got me, but they only last a few minutes each. I ended with 0.66". The northern part of my county got only half of that. Well to the north, over northeast Iowa, the MCS's comma head dumped more heavy rain. Now I get to wait another two weeks for the next chance of five minutes of heavy rain.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    Cyclone has managed to get another inch of rain overnight before I've seen any. I really hope all the heavy stuff moving in from the west doesn't suddenly crash south into the juicier air, leaving me with just a few hours of light rain. That's what I'm afraid of.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Except the front has pushed southward, into far southern Iowa, this evening (dew point has dropped here), and now the models are adjusting the MCS south as well. The model hot spot is now west-central to south-central Iowa. Hopefully, we can get something.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    As we get closer to the action, the HRRR is looking increasingly good for much of my area. I hope this is fairly accurate.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Only 0.33" here since June 25th. We badly need to get something decent Wednesday morning.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    Models are still all over the place with tonight's MCS action. I could get an inch or nothing at all.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    Models are now tracking the MCS farther south, potentially leaving my area dry again, because of course they are. ... and this might be it for another week or two.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Models are strongly suggesting an MCS will form in NE/SD Tuesday and track east-southeast through Wednesday.
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