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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    The favorable conditions really collapse on tonight's Euro once Melissa gets to Jamaica.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    Tonight's hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS) are no longer showing Melissa moving toward the west to the south of Jamaica. They are all now moving the center nw to wnw into eastern Jamaica.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    987 mb That should be the final recon pass until morning.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    993 mb
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, given the current structure as it moves into diurnal max, it should be a good night.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    Track is shifting eastward.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    It appears the surface and mid levels are finally beginning to come together. The convection is looking significantly better organized and now recon is finding the pressure dropping below 1000 mb. Also, the center continues to be pulled eastward while the convection tries to wrap back westward toward the center.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    06z Google.... almost all tracks now over Jamaica.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    This is a weak and messy circulation.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    Google DeepMind ensembles have shifted back west and south again.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Based on the final recon pass and the visible loop, it appears the center has jogged northwest, and is now west of the NHC forecast.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    HAFS models have jumped northeast again this morning. Now they hit Jamaica from the east.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Upper 20s were scattered across western, northern, and east-central Iowa this morning. The Cedar Rapids airport briefly hit 28º. Here in the city there was just a light skin of ice on the bird bath and some light frost. Tomorrow morning should be a bit colder.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    There has been a northeast shift on the models overnight. The Google DeepMind ensembles have come into much better agreement that Melissa will now get pulled northeastward first before it turns west. All of yesterday's tracks that went well southwest of Jamaica are gone. The HAFS models agree with this.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    12z Google model.... more tracks missing Jamaica to the west
  16. hawkeye_wx
    HAFS-B... when it's well sw of Jamaica.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    Latest Euro The new HAFS is going sub-900.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    The surface center has once again been spit out toward the west as the convection is unable to hold onto it.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    As often happens, our low temp the next couple mornings has been gradually lowered as it approaches. Now we may get to near freezing. I have to get the rest of my garden cuttings today before plants get zapped.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Here's the latest Google model.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    It appears the surface center was pulled a bit northeast by the overnight convection, but the future track has not changed. The 00z and 06z Euro show what will happen if Melissa can stay far enough sw to get caught under the building ridge this weekend. It would likely explode into a spectacular hurricane.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    The surface center continues to track sw of the NHC forecast.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    This is a very weak system. As you say, if it's even closed it's just barely. All of the convection was lost this morning, so it may even be weakening. It will likely have another nice convective blow-up just east of the center tonight.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro
  25. hawkeye_wx
    The new Euro is more like its ensembles. It tracks a bit farther sw over the next couple days, which then allows it to get caught under the ridge and turned toward the wsw. It also blows up south of Jamaica.
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