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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. The HRRR is also robust with wave #1. Some models have certainly been showing a brief shot of snow (1-3") in part of Iowa, but this several-inches thing is new, so I'm not sure how much to believe it.
  2. Woulda been nice to get a solid consensus this morning instead of more spread.
  3. Yeah, I forgot about the first wave. That's a bit of a mystery, though. A couple models have nothing here from the first wave while the Canadian and Euro show a decent slug of precip passing through.
  4. 12z Canadian and UK are both southeast and faster/weaker. Both models have removed anything significant for Iowa. My area is still on the nw edge of the snow on the GFS. For us, it's down to the Euro and NAM.
  5. We are about 35º warmer than at the same time yesterday morning.
  6. I did not realize until now that our temp Saturday will be that low. Dry snow and strong wind will make it tough to measure.
  7. 00z UK only moved nw a little. The second wave is still mostly a MO/IL/seWI event. Far e/se IA gets clipped with a few inches. This is yet another model that has mostly lost the first-wave precip in Iowa.
  8. The most amazing thing about this? Models actually show snow falling during daylight on Saturday when I can see it. I didn't think that was possible.
  9. Significant improvement in the 500 mb flow structure from the 00z GFS.
  10. The H5 low is still well northwest of the other models... near Burlington, IA.
  11. There is still a pretty decent difference between the 12z and 00z.
  12. This is exactly the kind of trend we need in Iowa. Get that northern wave outa here, slow the southern wave. Still, it's just the 18z NAM 72 hours out. It's likely overdone.
  13. Haha.... euro just went against the other models and shifted back nw.
  14. The 3k NAM doesn't even have a first wave for Iowa.
  15. Models are gradually moving away from a significant storm for Iowa. The ICON had been very robust for eastern Iowa, but now it's just a brief whitening late Friday and then nothing. The timing of the waves is becoming less favorable.
  16. Small changes in the speed of the northern and southern waves will have a significant impact on this area.
  17. UK is southeast a bit tonight, removing all snow from Iowa from the main wave, but still amps up nicely and lays a swath of heavy snow through Chicago.
  18. GFS & Euro not on the same page, particularly for Iowa/Wisconsin. The GFS is faster with the southern energy and remains more connected to the northern energy racing across Canada, so the system gets tilted positive and is yanked more eastward. The 12z Euro was slower with the southern energy and the two streams remain more detached, allowing the southern wave to cut to the lakes as the northern energy gets out of the way.
  19. 12z UK has a cutter.... big snow centered from northern MO to Milwaukee to Traverse City.
  20. All the models (minus the ICON) are going north this morning. The midnight Euro, plus the 12z UK and Canadian have snow through southeast Iowa. Here's the Canadian.