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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. There's an open area in the middle because the core convection is anemic.
  2. Decent drop since the earlier recon data. TS wind is still lacking, but that should come tonight with better convection.
  3. Recon is finding an east wind (a hair south of east) as they are flying through the new convection firing near the center.
  4. I was thinking the same thing. When Harvey's remnant moved into the gulf, it was broad and weak. Then, one intense blob of convection fired near the center overnight(the second night, maybe?) and that's all it took. Harvey was off to the races after that.
  5. Yeah, there's no lack of upper divergence over TD8. The question is what can it do with convection tonight. If it can fire an intense blob over the center and really pull the circulation together and tighten the core, then only the time over water is the limit. It could also be more of the same tonight, with a gradual organization and a couple/few mb knocked off the pressure.
  6. Another heat wave that looked significant when 7+ days away, but turns into two days when Cedar Rapids might hit 90º.
  7. The latest Euro has a 984 mb storm hitting the big island first thing Sunday morning.
  8. The 12z Euro still doesn't do much with this system, only showing a bit of strengthening right before landfall. Considering the conditions appear at least somewhat favorable, I'm curious why the Euro is so meh. What is it seeing or not seeing? Yeah, it's unusual to only do two passes when they are so close to home.
  9. Perhaps the center is trying to tuck itself under the more-focused convection just to its west/southwest.
  10. The cane models (HMON/HWRF) are now bringing TD8 to hurricane near Corpus. It's believable because the HWRF, which sometimes has an anomalously-large pressure drop early in its runs, which doesn't match reality, still only has this system at 1005 mb Friday morning and then amps it up beginning late Friday.
  11. Better organized, but still weak.
  12. The NHC upped the strength this morning, but it looks like garbage. The core has totally collapsed.
  13. It appears some dry air got pulled around and up the east side of the core, so it's not looking great this evening.
  14. Yeah, it'll take time for this broad, weak disturbance to organize. It didn't give us much to watch today.
  15. 50 mph seems a bit low. The last visible images of the day show convection bubbling up on the west side of the core, trying to form a ring around the center.
  16. Obviously, it's a long way out, but this morning's Euro has a modest system traversing the Caribbean, then it begins to turn more nw and strengthen at the end of the period as the eastern US trough erodes the subtropical ridge.
  17. 12z Euro, once again, shows it remaining weak and headed wnw through the end of the week, then it slows down and spins up on Saturday as it approaches the Texas coast. It makes landfall as a TS near Corpus. If this system can organize a day earlier, then it would be able to rev up a good bit more. Update: The euro shows this system continuing to strengthen as it slowly tracks west through south Texas. The atmospheric conditions must be pretty favorable in that area.
  18. The gulf system certainly has the appearance of a disturbance that is destined to become a tropical storm before moving into Texas.
  19. Yeah, looks can be deceiving. A strong blob of convection near the center does not necessarily mean the surface vortex is spinning up. A visible loop would be nice, but that'll have to wait til morning.
  20. A nice blob of convection firing near the center, during mid-afternoon, bodes well for development.
  21. The latest HWRF is really getting jiggy with this system... 967 mb going through the islands. I'm not expecting that, but there is certainly potential for strengthening.
  22. This certainly has the appearance of a TD. If it was closer to land, it likely would have been upgraded.
  23. The morning and late-afternoon clouds held the temp below the expected high temp around here. It's mid July and today was long expected to be a particularly hot day, and we still struggle to climb above 90º.
  24. I just checked the radar loop from that day. The cap clearly did not break.