Jump to content

hawkeye_wx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,475

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    3rd recon pass this morning continues to find a steady-state storm. The pressure is 953 mb, actually up a hair, and 120 kts flight level in the right (strongest) quad, which equates to 125 mph at the surface using the NHC's 0.9 method.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    The new recon plane suggests this is actually not a cat 4. The latest NHC estimate is too low by 8 mb. The pressure has only dropped from 959 to 952 over the last several hours. Also, the new plane did not find any increase in wind on its first pass, whereas the NHC increased the wind by 20 mph.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Officially 959 mb from the dropsonde.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    Final recon pass until morning found 114 kts flight level and 959 mb extrap. This thing is barely moving.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    967 mb, 115 kts flight level on the last pass. The eye has been tracking south of west this evening.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    969 mb, 111 kts flight level wind It is nearing cat 3.
  7. hawkeye_wx
  8. hawkeye_wx
    Still 971 mb... no drop over the last 90 minutes.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    97 kts flight level, 970 mb extrap
  10. hawkeye_wx
  11. hawkeye_wx
    The Google model continues to not budge. Many of its tracks are south of west for the next couple days.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    The favorable conditions really collapse on tonight's Euro once Melissa gets to Jamaica.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Tonight's hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS) are no longer showing Melissa moving toward the west to the south of Jamaica. They are all now moving the center nw to wnw into eastern Jamaica.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    987 mb That should be the final recon pass until morning.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    993 mb
  16. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, given the current structure as it moves into diurnal max, it should be a good night.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    Track is shifting eastward.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    It appears the surface and mid levels are finally beginning to come together. The convection is looking significantly better organized and now recon is finding the pressure dropping below 1000 mb. Also, the center continues to be pulled eastward while the convection tries to wrap back westward toward the center.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    06z Google.... almost all tracks now over Jamaica.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    This is a weak and messy circulation.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    Google DeepMind ensembles have shifted back west and south again.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Based on the final recon pass and the visible loop, it appears the center has jogged northwest, and is now west of the NHC forecast.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    HAFS models have jumped northeast again this morning. Now they hit Jamaica from the east.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    Upper 20s were scattered across western, northern, and east-central Iowa this morning. The Cedar Rapids airport briefly hit 28º. Here in the city there was just a light skin of ice on the bird bath and some light frost. Tomorrow morning should be a bit colder.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    There has been a northeast shift on the models overnight. The Google DeepMind ensembles have come into much better agreement that Melissa will now get pulled northeastward first before it turns west. All of yesterday's tracks that went well southwest of Jamaica are gone. The HAFS models agree with this.
×
×
  • Create New...