hawkeye_wx

06z Google.... almost all tracks now over Jamaica.

This is a weak and messy circulation.

Google DeepMind ensembles have shifted back west and south again.

Based on the final recon pass and the visible loop, it appears the center has jogged northwest, and is now west of the NHC forecast.

HAFS models have jumped northeast again this morning. Now they hit Jamaica from the east.

Upper 20s were scattered across western, northern, and east-central Iowa this morning. The Cedar Rapids airport briefly hit 28º. Here in the city there was just a light skin of ice on the bird bath and some light frost. Tomorrow morning should be a bit colder.

There has been a northeast shift on the models overnight. The Google DeepMind ensembles have come into much better agreement that Melissa will now get pulled northeastward first before it turns west. All of yesterday's tracks that went well southwest of Jamaica are gone. The HAFS models agree with this.

12z Google model.... more tracks missing Jamaica to the west

HAFS-B... when it's well sw of Jamaica.

Latest Euro The new HAFS is going sub-900.

The surface center has once again been spit out toward the west as the convection is unable to hold onto it.

As often happens, our low temp the next couple mornings has been gradually lowered as it approaches. Now we may get to near freezing. I have to get the rest of my garden cuttings today before plants get zapped.

Here's the latest Google model.

It appears the surface center was pulled a bit northeast by the overnight convection, but the future track has not changed. The 00z and 06z Euro show what will happen if Melissa can stay far enough sw to get caught under the building ridge this weekend. It would likely explode into a spectacular hurricane.

The surface center continues to track sw of the NHC forecast.

This is a very weak system. As you say, if it's even closed it's just barely. All of the convection was lost this morning, so it may even be weakening. It will likely have another nice convective blow-up just east of the center tonight.

12z Euro

The new Euro is more like its ensembles. It tracks a bit farther sw over the next couple days, which then allows it to get caught under the ridge and turned toward the wsw. It also blows up south of Jamaica.

The surface center is leaving the convection behind again this morning.

12z Euro is similar to past runs.... stays relatively weak and is able to not get pulled north early, then blows up south of Jamaica and is quickly yanked north by the next trough.

The GFS and ICON show the large differences that occur on Wednesday. At that point, when this system is south of Hispaniola, the GFS suddenly blows it up into a rapidly-strengthening hurricane and drives it north across the island. The ICON, on the other hand, does not develop it much until Sunday. It still feels a northward tug, but it remains too weak and shallow to get pulled further north, so it waits for the ridge to build in and turn it westward, at which point it blows up. Regarding the current state of the system, I'm not seeing any close surface circulation this morning. The center of surface spin is out ahead of most of the convection.

So this system does appear to be organizing earlier than some models were predicting. They now mostly develop it before it reaches the central Caribbean. However, there are still two camps. The GFS and Euro AIFS are still lifting it northward over Hispaniola, while the Euro and ICON begin to turn it north, but then a rebuilding ridge to the north causes the system to stall and turn back to the west.

A series of decent showers added up to 0.40" here overnight.

The GFS has a piece of energy in the sw Caribbean that competes with the energy coming in from the east. That also causes it to stop much earlier and end up much farther northeast. The Euro, on the other hand, has the main wave remaining the dominant energy, and also has stronger ridging to the north, which keeps the system moving westward.

We got a little rain yesterday, enough to wet the surface, but then overnight a nice soak boosted my total to 0.60".