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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    The ICON and GFS are coming in hot this morning for the end-of-week snow event. Both have potential for 6+" across Iowa and Illinois if the rates are heavy enough to counter the warm ground.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    There's plenty of action in the distance. The snow may all end up in the Dakotas and Minnesota, but it's at least some good stuff to track. I certainly won't complain if we get some good showers and storms.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    0.48" here, on the high end of the model range. Up to 0.90" fell on the northeast edge of the city. It came with some decent lightning/thunder.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    The big late-week system is now gone from the GFS. The southwest energy has been slowing while the energy moving along the Canada border has been speeding up and digging a bit more, so the wet cutter gets squashed.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    This would be nice, but some models are hinting at suppression. The AI Euro drops little to nothing from north of I-80.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    By far the best northern lights I've ever seen.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    The warmer models were correct for my area. I did not see a single flake.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    0.56" of rain here.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    Far nw Iowa got up to 4" of snow this morning. It is accumulating a little in Ames. It is too warm here as the precip is arriving at peak heating.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    The model trend is for a weaker system as it moves across Iowa. There is no guarantee I'll see any flakes.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    Some models had already been teasing some snow mixing in across Iowa. Now the Euro has finally joined them.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    There used to be a 60-ft tall red maple in my neighbor's backyard. It was too big for our small lots, but it was a beautiful, brilliant red color in fall. The 2020 derecho destroyed it. There is a still a young Fall Fiesta sugar maple in the front yard. So far, the tree has not had good color, although this year it is definitely better.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS is the only model showing any real snow this weekend around here, but all models show the first big push of arctic air. It looks brief, however.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    Josh has a new post https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983730201860206979 I can't figure out how to embed an X post.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    0.43" here overnight. My October rain total is 1.58", which is my driest October since 2011.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    So the NHC is going to call it 892 mb at landfall? I'm very skeptical. I understand the 892 mb from recon is their final real data before landfall, but the satellite presentation was clearly better a couple hours ago when recon got that measurement.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    Given some slight degradation on satellite, I don't think this will be still be sub-900 when the center of the eye crosses the coast.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    It had looked like he'd hit the center, but the left hook may leave him just getting into the eastern edge of the eye.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    The eye is actually still hooking left as it moves into the coast. The dead center could end up just a hair west of Josh.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Josh doesn't do live streams. He should have good video afterward.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    Josh Morgerman is going to hit the center perfectly in Crawford. I hope he gets a sub-900 measurement. That would be quite a trophy.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    Here is a fantastic loop of the radar showing this morning's eyewall merger. You can see the two bands merge, followed by the new single eyewall blow up with red. This is also the point in which the satellite blew up with intense lightning. https://x.com/WxTca/status/1983146321751024008
  23. hawkeye_wx
    New recon pass found ~894 mb from their dropsonde.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    173 kts flight level wind from the new NOAA recon, a new high for the storm, and that isn't even in the right quad.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    It appears the worst will be from Crawford, where Josh supposedly is, to Black River, just to the east.
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